Fantasy Baseball 2023 Cheatsheet: Pinpointing Top Sleepers and Busts
While March Madness is stealing all the shine, MLB Opening Day is right around the corner, with the season kicking off on March 30. And with the dawn of a new 162-game slate for teams also comes the thrills and horrors of fantasy baseball for fans.
Of course, it all begins with a league draft, where mistakes are sure to be made.
Certain players will be overlooked, while some big stars may disappoint despite their draft status.
So, before you get drafting, here are a couple of busts and sleepers to keep your eye on who could make or break your fantasy season.
Sleeper: Oneil Cruz
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In just over half a season in the big leagues, Oneil Cruz made a big and loud impression in 2022 and should have fantasy owners drooling over what he can produce with a full 162 games to work with.
Cruz, 24, hit .233/.294/.450 with 17 home runs and 54 RBIs in just 331 at-bats. And while those numbers are impressive for his short time in the league, what he really became known for was having the hardest hit (122.4 MPH) and the hardest-thrown infield assist (97.8 MPH) of the Statcast era all in one year, per MLB.com.
He also has shown off his base-running abilities in a big way, stealing 10 bases and topping out at 31.5 feet per second as he scored from third against the Cubs last season.
Pirates fans should be happy as their potential star has gotten off to a good start in spring training. Cruz is hitting .300/.323/.567 in 30 at-bats with two homers, six RBI and a stolen base.
He is projected to hit 15 homers and steal nine bases this season.
But the best part about Cruz is that he won't cost a high pick in most fantasy drafts. Cruz is the No. 11 ranked fantasy shortstop, according to FantasyPros, and his average draft position across most platforms is around 73.
You can't find much better value for someone with that much talent.
Bust: Sandy Alcantara
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This has less to do with Alcantara's talent and production and more with the team he has playing behind him. The 2022 CY Young Award winner is obviously one of the best pitchers in the game, but the Marlins have yet to field a winning team during his time with the organization.
Despite a 2.28 ERA, Alcantata went 14-9 as a starter last season, the most losses of any CY Young finalist in either league. He also had eight games that were listed as no decisions.
And a fair amount of those losses were attributed to an offense that was anemic at times. The Marlins ranked as the third-worst offensive team in the league last season with a .230 batting average and scoring just 586 runs.
Those are valuable fantasy points being lost even if Alcantara has another dominant season. He's currently being taken as the fourth-highest pitcher in fantasy drafts.
It'll be especially interesting to see how the new shift rules affect the Marlins ace as he isn't known as strikeout king. He finished 30th in the league in strikeouts per nine innings with 8.1.
The new rules could potentially lead to a higher ERA for Alcantara if he isn't able to get his strikeout numbers up, taking even more from his value as a fantasy player.
Sleeper: Hunter Greene
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Much like Alcantara, Greene is a talented player on a not-so-talented team, so that's bound to cost him some fantasy points. But unlike Alcantara, Greene is being taken significantly later in fantasy drafts, making him a great value option.
Greene, 23, currently has an ADP of 106 and is the 42nd pitcher coming off the board on most platforms, according to FantasyPros. That's extremely cheap for someone who is likely set to be an ace.
Making his debut last season after being taken with the second-overall pick in the 2017 MLB draft, Greene really started to figure it out towards the end of the year and showed that he could be a problem in 2023.
With a fastball that can top 100 MPH on a consistent basis and a nasty slider, Greene was filthy over his last six starts last season. In that span, he struck out 51 batters in 35 innings and only had four earned runs with eight walks.
If he's able to produce those types of numbers over a full season, he could be the biggest steal in every fantasy league.
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Bust: Gleyber Torres
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Things are getting interesting in New York. And that might not be the best news for Torres.
As opening day approaches, the Yankees infield is looking a lot more crowded than it did when the team entered spring training, much less where it left off at the end of last season when New York was swept by the Astros in the ALCS.
Former AL batting champion DJ LeMahieu and his gold glove will be a staple for the Yankees defensively after returning from an injury that kept him out the entire postseason.
And the emergence of top prospect Anthony Volpe in spring training has many believing he's a candidate to take over as the starting shortstop in the Bronx.
Volpe, 21, is hitting .333/.460/.667 with two homers, three RBI and four stolen bases in 11 games in spring training. He's living up to the billing of a top-five prospect in all of baseball.
So, with all of that going on, it may be risky drafting Torres, who is currently the eighth second baseman taken in most fantasy drafts with an ADP of 113.8. He's been a mainstay and good player in the Bronx for a while now but playing time may not be as guaranteed for Torres as it was in the past.
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