March Madness 2023: Tournament Schedule, Bracket Predictions for Men's Bubble Teams
One victory is all it could take for a team to jump from the NCAA men's basketball tournament bubble to squarely in the projected field of 68.
The Boise State Broncos and North Carolina Tar Heels picked up massive wins over Top 25 foes in the last few days to build up their resumes ahead of Selection Sunday on March 12.
Boise State knocked off the San Diego State Aztecs at home on Tuesday to prove they belong in the tournament that begins on March 14 with the First Four.
North Carolina may be headed to the First Four one year after it advanced to the national championship game.
The Tar Heels picked up their biggest win of the season on Saturday against the Virginia Cavaliers.
Hubert Davis' side may not be in the clear yet, but it took a strong step toward being on the right side of the bubble.
UNC's ACC conference mate the Clemson Tigers may have a more difficult watch on Selection Sunday.
Clemson suffered its fifth loss in nine games to Virginia on Tuesday, and its lack of quality wins could go against it in a week-and-a-half.
The NCAA tournament first round begins on March 16, and the championship will be held in Houston on April 3. The full schedule can be found here on NCAA.com.
Boise State
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Boise State likely punched its ticket to the Big Dance with its win over San Diego State on Tuesday.
The Broncos were teetering around the bubble entering Tuesday depending on which bracket you trust most.
Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller had the Broncos in as a No. 10 seed, while ESPN's Joe Lunardi listed them on the "Last Four In" column.
Boise was in a questionable position because it only had a few quality wins in nonconference play over the Texas A&M Aggies, Colorado Buffaloes and Washington State Cougars.
A&M's contention for the SEC regular-season title boosted that win on Boise's resume. The Broncos' two wins over Pac-12 teams do not look as great because Colorado and Washington State are in the mid-70s in the NET rankings.
A Quad 1 win over San Diego State rounded out the resume for the Broncos, who sit 26th in the NET.
The debate around Boise State should pivot to which seed it will get and if it will have to travel to Dayton, Ohio, for the First Four.
Boise has to hope for no-bid thieves in leagues like the West Coast Conference, CAA and Conference USA.
At-large entries for both the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Saint Mary's Gaels from the WCC, the Charleston Cougars from the CAA and C-USA's Florida Atlantic Owls could bump Boise down to the First Four.
Prediction: No. 10 seed
North Carolina
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North Carolina is by far the bubble team with the biggest profile.
The Tar Heels were in serious danger of missing the field of 68 if they did not beat Virginia on Saturday.
UNC earned its first Quad 1 win of the season against the Cavaliers, and it can double that total with a victory over the Duke Blue Devils in its ACC regular-season finale.
A home win over Duke would likely guarantee UNC's spot in the field of 68. It would have two wins over a pair of teams in the top 30 of the NET in a one-week span.
A loss to Duke would force the Tar Heels to do more work at the ACC tournament to feel safe about their Big Dance position.
Lunardi's most-recent projection has UNC as the first team out, while Miller listed the Heels as his third team out.
North Carolina comes into Wednesday as the No. 7 seed in the ACC tournament. That would pair it with the Miami Hurricanes or Pittsburgh Panthers in the quarterfinal round.
A win over Duke and a quarterfinal win over a top-four seed in the ACC should get the job done for the Tar Heels.
But as of Wednesday, they are firmly positioned on the bubble, and a bad loss in the second round of the ACC tournament would likely cast an end to its tournament chances.
Prediction: North Carolina beats Duke, lands in First Four
Clemson
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Clemson wasted one of its last opportunities to land a Quad 1 win on Tuesday.
The Tigers dropped a road result to Virginia and dropped to 13-6 in ACC play.
Brad Brownell's team lost four games in February. Three of those defeats are acceptable because they came against top teams in the ACC, but the upset loss to the Louisville Cardinals tarnished its resume.
Clemson entered Tuesday behind UNC on Lunardi's "First Four Out" line and off the radar in Miller's projected bracket.
A win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday will do nothing for Clemson's resume since Mike Brey's team resides near the bottom of the ACC standings.
Clemson will enter the ACC tournament as one of the most desperate power-conference teams during Championship Week.
The Tigers will either be the No. 4 or No. 5 seed in Greensboro, North Carolina. They will likely face the Duke Blue Devils in the quarterfinals regardless of which team gets the bye as the No. 4 seed.
Clemson must win that game and then probably needs to beat the top seed, which will either be Miami or Pittsburgh, to thrust itself to the right side of the bubble.
An ACC tournament quarterfinal loss could doom Clemson's field-of-68 hopes because it has a weak resume from a nonconference schedule in which it had one win over a team in the top 100 of the NET rankings.
Prediction: Clemson loses in ACC tournament quarterfinal, misses NCAA tournament
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