2023 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
Though it is not yet officially March, "March Madness" is officially underway. The first round of the Atlantic Sun tournament took place Monday night, signaling the start of the calamity that will set the field to determine the national champion.
And as we prepare to navigate the fortnight with the misnomer Championship Week, the projected No. 1 seeds for the 2023 men's NCAA tournament remain the same as they have been for a while: Kansas, Alabama, Houston and Purdue.
At the other end of the spectrum, however, there have been quite a few in/out bubble changes, in large part because of all the buzzer-beating drama that transpired this weekend.
For each of the four regions, we will discuss one team in better shape than it was one week ago and another that—though still in position to dance—has fallen on hard times.
Before that, we will start with the bubble. After the region-by-region breakdowns, there will be an explanation of why the No. 1 seeds are ranked in the order they are. At the end is a list of seeds by conference as a handy guide.
One quick "glossary" note: When we take deeper looks at specific teams' resumes, you will see NET, RES and QUAL. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the primary sorting metric used by the selection committee and the metric from which quadrant records are derived. RES is the average of the team's resume metrics (Kevin Pauga Index and strength of record). QUAL is the average of the quality metrics (ESPN's BPI, KenPom.com and Sagarin).
Also, any time we mention wins or record "against the projected field," that does not include games against teams from one-bid leagues who will need their conference's automatic bid in order to make the tournament. Beating projected No. 13-16 seeds simply isn't as noteworthy as beating projected at-large teams.
NET rankings are updated daily here. The others are masterfully aggregated by Bart Torvik. Records are accurate through Tuesday morning. All other data is accurate as of Monday morning, unless otherwise noted.
Last Five In
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Last Team In: Wisconsin Badgers
16-12, NET: 72, RES: 46.5, QUAL: 61.3
It's a hideous resume from a NET/QUAL perspective, but Wisconsin has six Quad 1 wins, five of them away from home. That's huge. The Badgers also don't have any terrible losses. But because only one of the big wins (at Marquette) lands in the top half of Quad 1, it does feel like they're going to need to win the Thursday home game against Purdue (and the subsequent road game against Minnesota) in order to enter the Big Ten tournament in good shape for a bid.
Second-to-Last In: Arizona State Sun Devils
20-9, NET: 61, RES: 48.5, QUAL: 63.0
How about Desmond Cambridge Jr.'s game-winning heave from beyond half court for a stunning road win over rival Arizona? It was a must-win game for the Sun Devils, who now own a pair of wins against the top half of Quad 1 (previously beat Creighton on a neutral floor) and an overall record of 9-8 against the top two Quads. They do have an egregious Quad 4 loss (at Texas Southern), but a split this week at UCLA and USC just might be enough for a bid.
Third-to-Last In: West Virginia Mountaineers
17-13, NET: 26, RES: 42.0, QUAL: 24.0
The Mountaineers saved their season with a come-from-behind road win over Iowa State Monday night. Had they lost, they would have been our first or second team out. But they picked one heck of a time to get their best win of the year and legitimately might get scrubbed up to a No. 10 seed after we get a full sense of the impact of that victory. To secure their spot in the field, they likely need one more win, though. Whether that comes at home against Kansas State this Saturday or in the first round of the Big 12 tournament against (probably) Texas Tech is up to them.
Fourth-to-Last In: Rutgers Scarlet Knights
18-11, NET: 32, RES: 44.5, QUAL: 28.0
A frantic comeback from a 19-point deficit at Penn State may have saved the season, but Rutgers has dropped off a cliff since losing Mawot Mag to a torn ACL, losing four of its past six games. The Scarlet Knights looked like the second-best team in the Big Ten not that long ago, but now they're 9-8 against the top two Quads, plus a trio of Quad 3 losses to Temple, Seton Hall and Nebraska. If they don't close out the regular season with wins over Minnesota (road) and Northwestern (home), they're headed for a photo finish for the second successive season.
Fifth-to-Last In: Auburn Tigers
19-10, NET: 36, RES: 32.0, QUAL: 31.0
After getting destroyed at Kentucky over the weekend, Auburn has dropped to 3-7 in its past 10 games, with two of those wins (vs. Ole Miss; vs. Georgia) not amounting to much of anything. The metrics still look good, but the Tigers wrap up the regular season against Alabama and Tennessee, which will likely drop them to 19-12 overall and just 2-10 against Quad 1.
First Five Out
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First Team Out: Michigan Wolverines
17-12, NET: 55, RES: 50.5, QUAL: 42.3
Hunter Dickinson's buzzer-beating, game-tying three-pointer against Wisconsin Sunday was one of the biggest shots of the entire season...but not quite enough to push the Wolverines all the way into the projected field. They have road games remaining against Illinois and Indiana. Winning either one would probably push them barely to the right side of the bubble heading into the Big Ten tournament. Winning both would be massive.
Second Team Out: Oklahoma State Cowboys
16-14, NET: 46, RES: 51.0, QUAL: 39.7
If we're still considering the Cowboys for an at-large bid on March 12, they will have suffered at least 15 losses.
The good news is we have seen a handful of 15-loss teams receive at-large bids for the NCAA tournament: Vanderbilt in 2017, Alabama in 2018 and Florida in 2019. And this Big 12 is better than the SEC ever was.
The bad news in that scenario is that each of those teams won a pair of games in the SEC tournament before finishing the regular season at 19-15. And Oklahoma State needs to win at Texas Tech Saturday and pull off a pair of wins in the Big 12 tournament to get to 19 wins. Good luck with that.
Third Team Out: North Carolina Tar Heels
19-11, NET: 47, RES: 45.5, QUAL: 39.7
Well, well, well. Look who finally got a Quad 1 victory. That home win over Virginia keeps North Carolina in the at-large conversation, but the overall resume is still lacking. As was the case one year ago, it sure feels like the Heels need to win the season finale against Duke in order to have a strong case for a bid. And if they get that win Saturday night, they'd better not turn around and immediately suffer a bad loss in their ACC tournament opener.
Fourth Team Out: Utah State Aggies
22-7, NET: 31, RES: 38.0, QUAL: 50.0
Utah State's resume remains a gigantic conundrum. The Aggies have strong metrics, but with just home wins over Nevada, Oral Roberts and New Mexico to go along with terrible losses to Weber State and SMU, they just do not pass the smell test from a big wins/bad losses perspective. However, a road win over UNLV and/or a home win over Boise State down the stretch could be huge. From a NET standpoint, the former would be their best road win of the season, while the latter would be their best overall win.
Fifth Team Out: New Mexico Lobos
20-9, NET: 48, RES: 59.0, QUAL: 67.7
After starting out 14-0 and later sitting at 18-2, New Mexico has lost seven of its past nine games and is probably sunk for at-large purposes after whiffing on both Quad 1 opportunities this past week against Boise State and San Diego State. However, the Lobos do still hold huge road wins over Saint Mary's and San Diego State, giving them a pair of Quad 1A wins on a bubble where most teams are sitting at zero or one in that category. And there will be opportunities for more in the MWC tournament.
East Region (New York City)
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Columbus, Ohio
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Norfolk State/Grambling State
No. 8 Missouri vs. No. 9 USC
Orlando, Florida
No. 4 San Diego State vs. No. 13 Kent State
No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 Arizona State/Wisconsin
Columbus, Ohio
No. 3 Marquette vs. No. 14 Yale
No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 11 Auburn
Denver, Colorado
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 UC Irvine
No. 7 Illinois vs. No. 10 Memphis
Movin' On Up: USC Trojans (Up Two Seed Lines)
21-8, NET: 45, RES: 35.5, QUAL: 34.3
On the one hand, USC's week of road wins over Colorado and Utah is a great example of why people hate the Quads system. Neither of those teams has any hope for an at-large bid at this point, but those register as impressive wins for a team that has been—aside from a home win over UCLA—lacking for quality victories.
On the other hand, the Trojans won both of those tricky games by double digits, and their previous road win over Arizona State gained quite a bit of value with the Sun Devils pulling off a road upset of Arizona and sneaking back into the projected field.
As such, this resume looks a whole lot better than it did one week ago, improving by at least 10 rungs in each of NET, RES and QUAL to move somewhat comfortably into the field.
USC does have a tough closing stretch, though, at home against Arizona and Arizona State. Should the Trojans lose both of those games and proceed to lose to a team other than Arizona, Arizona State or UCLA in the Pac-12 tournament, they might slip back down to the wrong side of the bubble.
Fadin' Fast: Virginia Cavaliers (Down Two Seed Lines)
21-6, NET: 28, RES: 16.5, QUAL: 33.3
Falling two seed lines doesn't feel like enough of a penalty for how bad this team has looked as of late.
At the time of last Saturday's home game against Notre Dame, Virginia was rated 17th on KenPom.
After just barely winning that one, losing by 15 at Boston College and losing by eight at North Carolina, the Cavaliers have plummeted all the way to 38th on KenPom.
Overall, though, it's still a solid resume. The Cavaliers are top 20 in RES metrics with four Quad 1 wins, nine Q1/Q2 wins and only one loss outside of Quad 1. They'll be a popular pick to get upset in the first round, but if they can win the remaining home games against Clemson and Louisville, they should end up with no worse than a No. 5 seed on Selection Sunday.
Midwest Region (Kansas City)
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Des Moines, Iowa
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Morehead State/Wagner
No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 9 Arkansas
Greensboro, North Carolina
No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Liberty
No. 5 Xavier vs. No. 12 Charleston
Greensboro, North Carolina
No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 14 Iona
No. 6 Miami vs. No. 11 Mississippi State
Sacramento, California
No. 2 Arizona* vs. No. 15 Colgate
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 NC State
Movin' On Up: Kentucky Wildcats (Up Two Seed Lines)
20-9, NET: 20, RES: 19.0, QUAL: 18.3
Hard to believe it was only two weeks ago that we were talking about Kentucky possibly missing the dance.
After consecutive victories over Mississippi State, Tennessee, Florida and Auburn, the Wildcats are up to 20 wins and ranked in the top 20 in NET, RES and QUAL. They do still have the bad losses to Georgia (Q3) and South Carolina (Q4), but they now have three wins against the top half of Quad 1, five total wins over Quad 1 and 11 wins against Quads 1 and 2.
Only 10 teams entered play on Monday with at least 12 wins over Quads 1 and 2, and those teams were Iowa (also on the No. 7 seed line with a woeful Q4 loss among its 11 total losses) and the top nine teams on our overall seed list.
If Kentucky can push its winning streak to six games this week against Vanderbilt (home) and Arkansas (road), it could still enter the SEC tournament in the mix for a No. 4 seed.
Fadin' Fast: NC State Wolfpack (Down One Seed Line)
22-8, NET: 42, RES: 36.5, QUAL: 44.0
It's one thing to lose at home to a team that was desperate for a win to get back into the at-large conversation.
It's another thing to give up 96 points in a 25-point blowout at the hands of a Clemson team that previously suffered losses away from home against South Carolina, Loyola-Chicago, Louisville and Boston College.
It wasn't an awful resume loss for the Wolfpack, but they're not exactly in a position to absorb many Quad 2 missteps. They only have two wins over teams that would be worthy of an at-large bid today—both at home against Duke and Miami.
They're now 7-8 overall against Quad 1 and 2 with just a road game against Duke remaining on their schedule. Should they fail to get that victory and suffer an immediate loss to a bottom-six team in the ACC tournament, they would be in some bubble trouble.
*Arizona is our No. 9 overall seed and should be on the No. 3 seed line. However, it is not possible for UCLA to be the No. 2 seed here (top No. 1 seed and top No. 2 seed cannot be in the same region), nor is it possible for Baylor, Texas or Kansas State to go here (if a league has at least four teams in the top 16, each of those teams must be placed in different regions). As such, Arizona is the unfortunate team projected to draw Kentucky in the second round.
South Region (Louisville)
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Birmingham, Alabama
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 16 Youngstown State
No. 8 Providence vs. No. 9 Pittsburgh
Albany, New York
No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 13 Bradley
No. 5 TCU vs. No. 12 VCU
Albany, New York
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Furman
No. 6 Duke vs. No. 11 Rutgers/West Virginia
Denver, Colorado
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Vermont
No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Nevada
Movin' On Up: Gonzaga Bulldogs (Up One Seed Line)
24-5, NET: 9, RES: 9.5, QUAL: 9.0
Though Gonzaga lost to Saint Mary's in the NET-based tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed in the WCC tournament, the Zags did lead wire-to-wire in a key home win over the Gaels on Saturday night for their first Quad 1 victory in nearly two months.
Save for a one-point home loss to Loyola Marymount in mid-January and an overtime loss at Saint Mary's in early February, Gonzaga has been flawless since the first weekend of December, slowly but surely putting together a rock-solid resume.
The Zags had gotten an "overrated" reputation in recent years, failing to win it all despite earning the No. 1 overall seed in 2021 and 2022, as well as No. 1 seeds in 2017 and 2019. But this year, they're probably a bit underrated as a No. 3 seed that appears to have gotten its early turnover/backcourt issues under control.
Fadin' Fast: Providence Friars (Down One Seed Line)
21-8, NET: 37, RES: 41.5, QUAL: 29.3
During the nonconference portion of the season, Providence went 0-3 against the top three Quads, losing to TCU, Miami and Saint Louis. And though they are 13-5 in Big East play, the Friars have just three wins over projected tournament teams, all at home against Connecticut, Marquette and Creighton.
As such, they've been a tough nut to crack for bracketology purposes, with their seed at least somewhat dependent upon how the selection committee views full-strength Villanova, which the Friars have beaten twice in the past month.
The combination of a 20-point win at Georgetown and an 18-point loss at Connecticut didn't change much of anything, but the Friars did lose some ground to teams who either picked up a big win or didn't suffer any losses.
If they are able to polish off a perfect 17-0 season at home with wins over Xavier and Seton Hall this week, though, they should get a single-digit seed with some room to spare.
West Region (Las Vegas)
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Birmingham, Alabama
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Northwestern State
No. 8 Texas A&M vs. No. 9 Michigan State
Orlando, Florida
No. 4 Saint Mary's vs. No. 13 Sam Houston State
No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Southern Miss
Des Moines, Iowa
No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 UNC-Asheville
No. 6 Northwestern vs. No. 11 Oral Roberts
Sacramento, California
No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington
No. 7 Creighton vs. No. 10 Boise State
Movin' On Up: Texas A&M Aggies (Up One Seed Line)
21-8, NET: 27, RES: 26.0, QUAL: 23.0
Texas A&M entered this week on a five-game winning streak and had a golden opportunity to really enhance its resume. Winning both Quad 1 games against Tennessee (home) and Mississippi State (road) would have been massive.
In this instance, though, one out of two certainly wasn't bad.
The Aggies made 28 free throws in a marquee win over the Volunteers for their fourth Quad 1 victory in less than a month's time. And though they were unable to complete the sweep for the week, they did put up a good fight against the Bulldogs.
A&M is now 8-6 against the top two Quads and has climbed into the top 30 of all six metrics. How much the Aggies will ultimately be penalized for their pair of Quad 4 losses (Murray State and Wofford) remains to be seen, but we think they'll be headed for a No. 8/9 seed if they win at Ole Miss and lose their home game against Alabama in the next week.
Fadin' Fast: Creighton Bluejays (Down Two Seed Lines)
18-11, NET: 16, RES: 36.0, QUAL: 14.0
Creighton's reign as "most difficult to seed" team continues in earnest this week following losses to Marquette and Villanova.
The Bluejays now have 11 total losses and only four wins against the projected field (home games against Connecticut, Xavier and Providence; neutral against Arkansas). Penn State is in a similar boat, and the Nittany Lions are on the wrong side of the bubble.
However, the predictive metrics adore Creighton, and there's the whole "didn't have Ryan Kalkbrenner for the losses to BYU and Arizona State" factor to consider.
If they take care of business against Georgetown and DePaul this week, the Bluejays figure to land somewhere in the Nos. 6-8 seed range. But if they were to lose either game, that would be a brutal misstep that could cost them another couple of seed lines.
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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No. 4: Purdue Boilermakers
24-5, NET: 5, RES: 4.0, QUAL: 6.7
Purdue entered February as the no-brainer No. 1 overall seed, but the Boilermakers are going to enter March barely clinging to a spot on the top line after losing four of their past six games.
While they haven't much looked like a title contender as of late, they do still have nine Quad 1 wins and 14 total wins against Q1/Q2. That's good enough for now. But if UCLA sweeps Arizona and Arizona State later this week or if Texas wins at TCU and at home against Kansas in the next five days, Purdue is liable to slip to a No. 2 seed, even if it wraps up the regular season with wins over Wisconsin and Illinois.
No. 3: Houston Cougars
27-2, NET: 1, RES: 3.5, QUAL: 1.0
Houston only has four Quad 1 wins, but at least it is continuing to take care of business in the AAC, pushing its winning streak to nine games by destroying both Tulane and East Carolina in the past seven days.
Next Sunday's game at Memphis is the big one. Get that Quad 1 win, and we can just about lock the Cougars into a No. 1 seed. Maybe it gets dicey if they lose early in the AAC tourney while Purdue, UCLA and Baylor/Texas each win their respective conference tournaments, but it sure is hard to argue with a 29-2 record and basically the entire season spent at No. 1 in the NET—especially after the committee had the Cougars at No. 2 overall in the top-16 reveal.
No. 2: Alabama Crimson Tide
25-4, NET: 2, RES: 1.5, QUAL: 2.7
To remain ahead of Kansas for the No. 1 overall seed, Alabama probably needed to close out the regular season with strong style points, as the Crimson Tide couldn't possibly match the Jayhawks' stockpile of Quad 1 wins.
Instead, Alabama needed overtime to win at South Carolina—a game hovering right on the border between Q3/Q4. It also played a nail-biter at home against Arkansas, basically matching Kansas' nail-biter at home against West Virginia.
If it does come down to Alabama or Kansas for No. 1 overall, though, it won't really matter. Kansas prefers the Midwest (Kansas City) region and Alabama prefers the South (Louisville) region, so they would both get their wish.
No. 1: Kansas Jayhawks
24-5, NET: 6, RES: 1.5, QUAL: 6.0
Kansas has five more Quad 1 wins than any other team in the country and has a Quad 1 record (15-5) almost identical to Alabama's record vs. Quad 1 and Quad 2 (15-4), which is the most Q1/Q2 wins by teams not named Kansas.
The Jayhawks were No. 4 in the top-16 reveal 10 days ago, but they have since added quality wins over Baylor, TCU and West Virginia. If they can add wins this week over Texas Tech (home) and Texas (road), they should be the No. 1 overall seed, regardless of what happens in the conference tournaments.
Seeding by Conference
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In case seeded regions aren't enough and you want to know where the "top" 68 teams stand in relation to one another, here is a list of each squad's overall seed, broken down by conference. The First Five Out are listed in italics. Projected automatic bids for each conference are based on QUAL metrics as opposed to conference record.
American (2): 3. Houston; 37. Memphis
Atlantic Coast (5): 17. Virginia; 22. Miami; 23. Duke; 36. Pittsburgh; 39. NC State; 71. North Carolina
Big 12 (7): 1. Kansas; 6. Baylor; 7. Texas; 8. Kansas State; 18. Iowa State; 20. TCU; 44. West Virginia; 70. Oklahoma State
Big East (5): 10. Marquette; 14. Connecticut; 19. Xavier; 26. Creighton; 31. Providence
Big Ten (8): 4. Purdue; 12. Indiana; 21. Maryland; 24. Northwestern; 27. Iowa; 28. Illinois; 34. Michigan State; 43. Rutgers; 46. Wisconsin; 69. Michigan
Mountain West (3): 15. San Diego State; 38. Boise State; 40. Nevada; 72. Utah State; 73. New Mexico
Pac-12 (4): 5. UCLA; 9. Arizona; 35. USC; 45. Arizona State
Southeastern (8): 2. Alabama; 13. Tennessee; 25. Kentucky; 29. Missouri; 32. Texas A&M; 33. Arkansas; 41. Mississippi State; 42. Auburn
West Coast (2): 11. Gonzaga; 16. Saint Mary's
Other (23): 30. Florida Atlantic; 47. Oral Roberts; 48. Charleston; 49. VCU; 50. Southern Miss; 51. Sam Houston State; 52. Bradley; 53. Liberty; 54. Kent State; 55. Iona; 56. Yale; 57. Furman; 58. UNC-Asheville; 59. Vermont; 60. Eastern Washington; 61. UC Irvine; 62. Colgate; 63. Youngstown State; 64. Northwestern State; 65. Norfolk State; 66. Grambling State; 67. Morehead State; 68. Wagner
Statistics courtesy of Sports Reference and KenPom unless otherwise noted.
Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.
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