2023 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
The selection committee for the 2023 men's NCAA tournament gave us their top 16 teams Saturday afternoon, and in our latest projection of the field, we're not tinkering too much with that sneak peek.
The No. 1 seeds are all the same—Alabama, Houston, Kansas and Purdue—though we did swap No. 3 and No. 4 overall for reasons to be explained later. We also dropped Iowa State (No. 11 in the reveal) after its loss to Kansas State (No. 12 in the reveal). But it's mostly the same up top.
Down on the bubble, though, we were left to our own devices to sort out the wreckage, where the list of teams even worth considering for a spot in the field is about as short as I can ever recall. We'll still give you a First Five Out, but it wasn't remotely tempting to place the third, fourth or fifth teams out into the field.
For each of the four regions, we will discuss one team in better shape than it was one week ago and another that—though still in position to dance—has fallen on hard times.
Before that, we will start with the bubble. After the region-by-region breakdowns, there will be an explanation of why the No. 1 seeds are ranked in the order they are. At the end is a list of seeds by conference as a handy guide.
One quick "glossary" note: When we take deeper looks at specific teams' resumes, you will see NET, RES and QUAL. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the primary sorting metric used by the selection committee and the metric from which quadrant records are derived. RES is the average of the team's resume metrics (Kevin Pauga Index and strength of record). QUAL is the average of the quality metrics (ESPN's BPI, KenPom.com and Sagarin).
Also, any time we mention wins or record "against the projected field," that does not include games against teams from one-bid leagues who will need their conference's automatic bid in order to make the tournament. Beating projected No. 13-16 seeds simply isn't as noteworthy as beating projected at-large teams.
NET rankings are updated daily here. The others are masterfully aggregated by Bart Torvik. Records are accurate through Monday. All other data is accurate through Sunday, unless otherwise noted.
Last Five In
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Last Team In: North Texas Mean Green
23-5, NET: 46, RES: 44.0, QUAL: 69.0
Is it a pretty resume? Not really. But are there any more deserving candidates on the outside looking in? Again, not really. At least North Texas is in the top 50 in NET and RES with a Quadrant 1 win and zero Quad 4 losses. The Mean Green may get replaced by a team with more or better remaining opportunities to improve its resume. But as things stand, we will take a two-bid Conference USA, thanks.
Second-to-Last In: USC Trojans
19-8, NET: 56, RES: 45.0, QUAL: 49.3
They dropped out of last week's field after back-to-back losses to the Oregon programs, but at least the Trojans took care of business with convincing wins over Cal and Stanford. Now comes the litmus test: road games against Colorado and Utah followed by home games against Arizona and Arizona State. A win over the Wildcats would be huge, but short of that, USC might need to win each of the other three to remain in good standing. Depending on how the Sun Devils fare from here, that finale might be a play-in game.
Third-to-Last In: Mississippi State Bulldogs
18-9, NET: 43, RES: 46.5, QUAL: 40.3
MSU narrowly avoided disaster in an overtime win against Ole Miss, but it did slip three spots on the overall seed list because of the combination of that close call and a home loss to Kentucky. Adding one more Quad 1 win would be huge, and both games this week—at NET No. 51 Missouri, vs. NET No. 28 Texas A&M—would qualify. Lose both, though, and the Bulldogs will be 3-7 vs. Quad 1 and 9-11 against the top three Quads. We'll see where the cutline lands, but in most years, that wouldn't be enough for a bid.
Fourth-to-Last In: West Virginia Mountaineers
16-12, NET: 32, RES: 44.0, QUAL: 31.3
The 'Eers slapped a Band-Aid on a three-game losing skid with a home win over Oklahoma State on Monday night, but they likely need to win at least two of their final three games to still be above the bubble heading into the Big 12 tournament. And considering those three games are against Kansas (road), Iowa State (road) and Kansas State (home), we wish them luck on their journey.
Fifth-to-Last In: Memphis Tigers
20-7, NET: 41, RES: 29.0, QUAL: 39.0
Sans Kendric Davis, the Tigers did not pull off a road upset of Houston on Sunday afternoon. But they did put up one heck of a fight against the No. 2 overall seed—and previously put up one heck of a fight against the No. 1 overall seed, Alabama—and that has to count for something, right? Memphis did beat Texas A&M and Auburn in its only other two opportunities against likely tournament teams, and it should get into the dance so long as it doesn't lose to Wichita State, Cincinnati or SMU in the next 10 days.
First Five Out
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First Team Out: Wisconsin Badgers
15-11, NET: 76, RES: 45.5, QUAL: 66.0
The resume metrics still make a compelling case for Wisconsin, but its free fall from 11-2 to 15-11—and its 10-11 effective record if you ignore Q4 home wins—has finally knocked the Badgers out of our projected field. Losing at home to shorthanded Rutgers was yet another blown opportunity for a team that is 4-9 against the projected field. Wisconsin has remaining home games against Iowa and Purdue and road games against Michigan and Minnesota. Better win at least three.
Second Team Out: New Mexico Lobos
20-7, NET: 47, RES: 50.5, QUAL: 68.3
New Mexico dropped onto last week's bubble with a loss at Air Force on Feb. 10, and then it fell out of the field with a home loss to Wyoming last Tuesday. The Lobos didn't have Jaelen House (hamstring) for either of those games, and it showed. But now that he's back in the lineup, they need to make up for those blemishes by winning at Boise State on Wednesday or knocking off San Diego State in the Pit on Saturday. Lose both, and they'll need to win the MWC tournament to go dancing.
Third Team Out: Utah State Aggies
21-7, NET: 33, RES: 37.0, QUAL: 50.7
Utah State is 0-4 vs. Quad 1 and suffered two terrible nonconference losses to Weber State and SMU. But the Aggies have cracked the metrics code, holding from a bird's-eye view a tournament-worthy resume with a 17-2 record against Quads 2 and 3. Winning at home Saturday night against Nevada kept USU in the conversation, but it probably needs to win out (at Wyoming, at UNLV, vs. Boise State) to have a valid case for a bid.
Fourth Team Out: North Carolina Tar Heels
16-11, NET: 48, RES: 50.0, QUAL: 38.7
It's sad that we're even considering the Tar Heels, who have a 0-8 record vs. Quad 1 plus another three losses in Quad 2, but the metrics just refuse to throw in the towel on this team that refuses to get any quality wins. A 4-0 finish (which would include home wins over Virginia and Duke) would make things interesting, but UNC might need to win the ACC tournament at this point.
Fifth Team Out: Michigan Wolverines
15-12, NET: 65, RES: 63.0, QUAL: 50.0
The metrics aren't great, and that hideous Quad 4 home loss to Central Michigan is still on their resume, but between Saturday's win over Michigan State and a season sweep of Northwestern that looks better by the hour, the Wolverines are creeping back into the mix. And should they catch fire down the stretch, look out. With road games remaining against Rutgers, Illinois and Indiana, Michigan could add a trio of wins against the top half of Quad 1.
East Region (New York City)
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Columbus, Ohio
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Morehead State/Wagner
No. 8 Missouri vs. No. 9 NC State
Albany, New York
No. 4 Iowa State vs. No. 13 Dayton
No. 5 Connecticut vs. No. 12 Drake
Columbus, Ohio
No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Yale
No. 6 San Diego State vs. No. 11 Oral Roberts
Sacramento, California
No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 15 Colgate
No. 7 Providence vs. No. 10 Auburn
Movin' On Up: Providence Friars (Up Three Seed Lines)
20-7, NET: 38, RES: 38.5, QUAL: 27.7
Providence plummeted to a No. 10 seed after a loss at St. John's two Saturdays ago.
But as the Friars so often have over the past few years, they took care of business at home, beating Creighton and Villanova to climb comfortably back up to a single-digit seed.
They needed double overtime to beat Creighton, just like they needed double overtime to beat Marquette in December. Still, both of those wins and a home win over Connecticut look great in the top half of Quad 1.
A win at Connecticut on Wednesday would be huge, but it certainly isn't necessary. Nor is a home game against Xavier the following Wednesday. However, the Friars do need to win at Georgetown and at home against Seton Hall over the next two weekends to avoid re-entering the bubble picture.
Fadin' Fast: Missouri Tigers (Down Two Seed Lines)
19-8, NET: 51, RES: 27.0, QUAL: 64.0
After a big previous week featuring a crucial road win over Tennessee, Missouri backslid considerably with a 33-point loss at Auburn and a home loss to Texas A&M that wasn't competitive at any point in the second half.
It's still a solid resume, though. The Tigers have five wins over the NET top 35 and nary a loss outside of Quad 1. The NET and QUAL metrics would have you believe this is a bubble team, but they'll be in with room to spare so long as they avoid disaster down the stretch.
Having said that, there is potential disaster to come. Missouri finishes the regular season with home games against Mississippi State and Ole Miss as well as road games against Georgia and LSU. That's two Quad 2 and two Quad 3 games, so going 2-2 or worse would be a problem, especially for a team that already has a middling NET.
Midwest Region (Kansas City)
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Birmingham, Alabama
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 UNC Asheville
No. 8 Illinois vs. No. 9 Kentucky
Orlando, Florida
No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 13 Liberty
No. 5 Saint Mary's vs. No. 12 USC/North Texas
Greensboro, North Carolina
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
No. 6 Northwestern vs. No. 11 Mississippi State/West Virginia
Denver, Colorado
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Youngstown State
No. 7 Arkansas vs. No. 10 Boise State
Movin' On Up: Kentucky Wildcats (Up Two Seed Lines)
18-9, NET: 35, RES: 31.5, QUAL: 28.3
So much for that dream of a Kentucky-North Carolina First Four showdown, eh?
Not only have the Tar Heels fallen by the wayside, but also the Wildcats have moved comfortably into the projected field following Quad 1 wins over Mississippi State (road) and Tennessee (home).
That isn't to say Kentucky is now a lock to dance. Cason Wallace, Oscar Tshiebwe and Co. probably still need to win at least two of their final four regular-season games to avoid stumbling back to the bubble. But they went from "coin flip" to "should be safely in the field" in a hurry.
At this point, it's less a question of whether Kentucky will make the tournament and more a question of how high the Wildcats could climb up the overall seed list if they are finally hitting their stride. And if they go 4-0 down the stretch, a No. 6 seed is well within the realm of possibility.
Fadin' Fast: Illinois Fighting Illini (Down Two Seed Lines)
18-9, NET: 27, RES: 39.0, QUAL: 21.3
Illinois did at least stop the bleeding with a home win over Minnesota on Monday night. Losing that one would have raised serious questions.
But it was still a rough week, as the Illini gave up 93 points in a loss at Penn State before wilting down the stretch of a close loss at Indiana.
No real shame in the latter outcome, particularly with Terrence Shannon Jr. unavailable. It's actually impressive that they almost pulled off the upset without him.
However, getting blown out by Penn State for the second time this season was no bueno for a team that is now 3-7 vs. Quad 1 and just 7-9 against the top two quads.
As is the case with East Region Fadin' Fast team Missouri, Illinois is still in great shape for a bid. Neutral-site victories over Texas and UCLA aren't going anywhere. But if it loses the season finale at Purdue and drops at least two of its three toss-up games (vs. Northwestern, at Ohio State, vs. Michigan) before then, things could get dicey.
South Region (Louisville)
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Birmingham, Alabama
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 16 Norfolk State
No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 9 Michigan State
Orlando, Florida
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Sam Houston State
No. 5 Creighton vs. No. 12 Charleston
Albany, New York
No. 3 Marquette vs. No. 14 Iona
No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 11 Oklahoma State
Des Moines, Iowa
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Furman
No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Pittsburgh
Movin' On Up: Creighton Bluejays (Up One Seed Line)
18-9, NET: 13, RES: 28.0, QUAL: 10.7
Of all the takeaways from the Top 16 reveal, Creighton's being mentioned as one of the top candidates that missed the cut might have been the most intriguing.
Because, I'll be honest, I have had no clue where to slot the Bluejays as of late. They had won eight straight prior to their double-overtime loss at Providence, and both the NET and predictive metrics have loved them as a possible Elite Eight team. However, the combination of their mediocre resume metrics, limited supply of noteworthy wins outside of Omaha and 2-6 record against the top half of Quad 1 had been pointing toward a No. 7 or No. 8 seed.
But if Creighton was a serious candidate for a No. 4 seed before winning by double digits at St. John's on Saturday evening, what choice do we have but to slot the Bluejays in as a solid No. 5 seed?
And if they were to win Tuesday night against visiting Marquette, that might be enough for the Bluejays to supplant the Golden Eagles on the No. 3/4 seed line.
Fadin' Fast: Oklahoma State Cowboys (Down Four Seed Lines)
16-12, NET: 37, RES: 42.0, QUAL: 32.7
"Let's see how well the Cowboys finish the fight, though. Before our next projection, they'll host Kansas and play at both TCU and West Virginia, which could drop them to 16-12 and back onto the bubble in a hurry."
That's what I said one week ago in bumping Oklahoma State up to a No. 7 seed following its road win over Iowa State. Falling back onto the bubble is exactly what the Cowboys did.
What had been a great defense for most of the season was a train wreck in an 87-76 loss to Kansas and 100-75 loss to TCU. Scoring in the mid-70s against those teams should at least give you a shot at victory, but Oklahoma State never stood a chance in either game.
Defense remained a major issue Monday night against West Virginia as the Mountaineers—who had averaged 66.3 points during what was a three-game losing streak—put up 85 in blowing out Oklahoma State.
The good news about the Cowboys' 0-3 week is that at least all three games came against the top half of Quad 1. But with just four wins against the projected field, three losses to teams not projected to dance, 12 total losses and (at least) three more Quad 1 games to come, the Cowboys have slipped back onto the bubble.
West Region (Las Vegas)
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Des Moines, Iowa
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Northwestern State/Grambling State
No. 8 Rutgers vs. No. 9 Nevada
Sacramento, California
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 13 Marshall
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 Kent State
Greensboro, North Carolina
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Eastern Washington
No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 Memphis
Denver, Colorado
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Vermont
No. 7 Duke vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
Movin' On Up: Texas A&M Aggies (Rejoins Projected Field)
20-7, NET: 28, RES: 27.5, QUAL: 26.3
Can't ask for much better than the week Texas A&M just had. The Aggies improved to 5-0 in February with a home win over Arkansas and a road victory against Missouri.
That's two Quad 1 wins as well as a pair of wins over the projected field.
And that's exactly what A&M needed.
Its metrics were already worthy of at-large consideration, but the balance of wins over the projected field and losses to non-tournament teams was troubling with three of each. Worse yet, the bad losses (Murray State and Wofford) were quite bad, while even the best wins (sweep of Auburn) weren't all that special.
Now with five wins over the projected field, though, pretty hard to justify keeping the Aggies out. And a win this week over Tennessee (home) or Mississippi State (road) would just about seal the deal.
Fadin' Fast: Nevada Wolf Pack (Down One Seed Line)
20-7, NET: 34, RES: 25.0, QUAL: 52.7
Of our four Fadin' Fast teams, Nevada had the least troubling week. The Wolf Pack played only one game in the past seven days, and that Quad 1 loss at Utah State wasn't the end of the world.
Still, they slipped one seed line, which is more than can be said for any other team in this region.
Since we mentioned Texas A&M's tournament wins-bad losses split, better do the same for Nevada: home wins over San Diego State and Boise State and four road losses to Utah State, Oregon, UNLV and Loyola Marymount.
That's not great, though at least all of Nevada's losses are Quad 1 or Quad 2, and at least the Wolf Pack have five wins over the NET top 50.
They could be one bad loss from sliding back to the bubble, though. And with nothing but Quad 3 games remaining against San Jose State, Fresno State, Wyoming and UNLV, any loss before the MWC tournament would be their worst loss of the season.
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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No. 4: Purdue Boilermakers
24-4, NET: 5, RES: 3.0, QUAL: 4.7
I know Purdue was No. 3 in the Top 16 reveal, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the selection committee had already called it a wrap by the time the Boilermakers lost at Maryland on Thursday night. At any rate, that's the only explanation I can come up with for why the Jayhawks were No. 4.
That said, Purdue is still definitely clear of Texas and Arizona on the No. 2 seed line and would just about lock up a spot on the top line if it can close out the regular season with home wins over Indiana and Illinois and a road win over Wisconsin.
No. 3: Kansas Jayhawks
23-5, NET: 6, RES: 2.0, QUAL: 6.0
Kansas has 14 Quad 1 wins, which is absurd. No other team has more than nine. And last year's national leader in Quad 1 wins (also Kansas) entered the NCAA tournament with 12. If the Jayhawks win out, they could have 19 or 20 and would be the No. 1 overall seed, regardless of what Alabama does the rest of the way.
Heck, even if they were to lose the regular-season finale at Texas, if they first win home games against West Virginia and Texas Tech and then rally to win the Big 12 tournament, that might be enough to supplant the Crimson Tide atop the seed list.
No. 2: Houston Cougars
25-2, NET: 1, RES: 4.0, QUAL: 1.3
It was tempting to drop Houston below Kansas. Committee chair Chris Reynolds said there was basically no separation among the No. 1 seeds, and Kansas has since added Quad 1 wins over Baylor and TCU while Houston had a close call at home against short-handed Memphis.
The Jayhawks have 10 more Quad 1 wins than Houston and don't have a Quad 3 loss to Temple weighing them down. But it's clear the selection committee values Houston's 11-0 away-from-home record, its two-loss overall record and its status as the No. 1 team in the predictive metrics. The Cougars might have landed at No. 1 overall were it not for their home loss to Alabama.
No. 1: Alabama Crimson Tide
23-4, NET: 2, RES: 1.0, QUAL: 1.7
Despite all that talk about Kansas, Alabama still sits atop the throne. Its loss Wednesday at Tennessee brought the Crimson Tide back to the pack, but they are still No. 1 or No. 2 in all the metrics and have yet to suffer a bad loss. (The game at Oklahoma did get ugly, but it was still a Quad 1 result.)
Alabama should win out, which would mean adding three more wins (prior to the SEC tournament) over teams projected to dance. But even if the Tide lose to Arkansas, Auburn or Texas A&M and lose to another NCAA tournament-bound team in their conference tournament, you have to like their chances of earning a No. 1 seed for the first time in program history.
Seeding by Conference
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In case seeded regions aren't enough and you want to know where the "top" 68 teams stand in relation to one another, here is a list of each squad's overall seed, broken down by conference. The First Five Out are listed in italics. Projected automatic bids for each conference are based on QUAL metrics as opposed to conference record.
American (2): 2. Houston; 42. Memphis
Atlantic Coast (5): 9. Virginia; 20. Miami; 25. Duke; 33. NC State; 37. Pittsburgh; 72. North Carolina
Big 12 (8): 3. Kansas; 5. Texas; 7. Baylor; 10. Kansas State; 13. Iowa State; 23. TCU; 41. Oklahoma State; 43. West Virginia
Big East (5): 12. Marquette; 16. Xavier; 17. Connecticut; 19. Creighton; 26. Providence
Big Ten (8): 4. Purdue; 14. Indiana; 21. Northwestern; 24. Maryland; 28. Iowa; 29. Illinois; 30. Rutgers; 36. Michigan State; 69. Wisconsin; 73. Michigan
Conference USA (2): 32. Florida Atlantic; 46. North Texas
Mountain West (3): 22. San Diego State; 35. Nevada; 40. Boise State; 70. New Mexico; 71. Utah State
Pac-12 (3): 6. Arizona; 8. UCLA; 45. USC
Southeastern (8): 1. Alabama; 11. Tennessee; 27. Arkansas; 31. Missouri; 34. Kentucky; 38. Texas A&M; 39. Auburn; 44. Mississippi State
West Coast (2): 15. Gonzaga; 18. Saint Mary's
Other (22): 47. Oral Roberts; 48. Charleston; 49. Drake; 50. Kent State; 51. Dayton; 52. Sam Houston State; 53. Liberty; 54. Marshall; 55. Iona; 56. Yale; 57. UC Irvine; 58. Eastern Washington; 59. Furman; 60. Vermont; 61. Youngstown State; 62. Colgate; 63. UNC Asheville; 64. Norfolk State; 65. Northwestern State; 66. Grambling State; 67. Morehead State; 68. Wagner
Statistics courtesy of Sports Reference and KenPom unless otherwise noted.
Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.
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