Raiders' Top Hypothetical Trade Packages for Derek Carr
It isn't official yet, but the Derek Carr era is over with the Las Vegas Raiders. All that's left to see now is whether the team can work out a trade to get some return for the quarterback or if he will be released.
The 31-year-old has already acknowledged the situation. The Raiders chose to start Jarrett Stidham in the season finale, benching their longtime starter and finalizing the choice to move on from the veteran quarterback.
The ideal scenario is obviously for the Raiders to get something in return. Their relationship with Carr may have frayed this season but he was still 13th in QBR this season.
There are a few things that will complicate finding a trade for him, though. Three days after the Super Bowl, the $32.9 million for next season and $7.5 million of his 2024 salary will become guaranteed.
That puts a pretty tight time frame on when they need to get a deal done. Then there's Carr's no-trade clause, meaning he would need to approve any deal that is agreed upon. It's something that would benefit him because of the guaranteed money, but it gives him some veto power.
Those mitigating circumstances, combined with the Raiders' openness about moving on from him, could lead to less compensation. With that in mind, here's a look at three hypotheticals that would at least bring some return.
New Orleans Saints
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Raiders Receive: 2023 third-round pick (No. 72 overall), 2024 conditional third-round pick (can become a second based on playing time)
Saints Receive: QB Derek Carr
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler sparked some conversation around the Saints as a potential suitor for Carr. He reported there was some buzz in Mobile, Alabama during the Senior Bowl that New Orleans could be in on the trade market for the quarterback.
He also noted that teams are hoping to restructure Carr's contract as part of a trade.
Still, the Raiders' lack of leverage could lead to a less-than-expected haul for their signal-caller.
This deal is a slightly simpler version of the Carson Wentz trade that sent the former Colts quarterback to Washington last season.
The two teams essentially swapped second-rounders while the Commanders added a third-rounder and a conditional third-rounder that would have become a second-rounder if the 30-year-old played 70 percent of the snaps for Washington.
Carr has been fairly durable over the course of his career. He has played 93 percent or more of the snap counts in each of his nine seasons, but the conditional pick adds a layer of protection for the Saints.
As for the fit, the four-time Pro Bowler would be an upgrade over the combination of Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston that played last season. The latter threw four touchdowns to five interceptions in the first three games and the former was just solid when he took over.
Dalton is 35 years old and his days as a legitimate starter in the NFL are over. The Saints always operate like a team that is contending, so acquiring a proven veteran fits their modus operandi.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Raiders Receive: 2023 third-round pick (No. 83 overall), 2023 fifth-round pick (No. 149 overall), 2024 conditional third-round pick (can become a second based on playing time)
Saints Receive: QB Derek Carr
This trade package is essentially the same as the hypothetical Saints offer, but the third-round pick is a little lower and throws in an additional fifth-rounder.
Again, it's hard to see the Raiders being able to squeeze out a first-rounder or even a second without assurances that he's going to be a solid starter for the team acquiring him.
Unfortunately for Vegas, the Wentz and Russell Wilson trades backfiring for the Commanders and Broncos, respectively could have hurt their ability to negotiate a better deal.
However, a team like the Bucs may still be willing to part with multiple picks, with Tom Brady's retirement leaving them at a crossroads.
They still have the infrastructure around the quarterback position to make another Super Bowl run, but it's the oldest roster in the league. Tampa Bay could view Brady's retirement as an opportune time to blow it up and start the rebuild.
If they want to continue being competitive, then handing the keys to an offense with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Russell Gage to Carr is probably the best way forward.
Outside of Aaron Rodgers, Carr is the most successful quarterback who could be available on the trade market and he's eight years younger.
New York Jets
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Raiders Receive: 2023 second-round pick (No. 44 overall)
Jets Receive: QB Derek Carr
If there's a young team that is just one quarterback away from making some real noise, it's the New York Jets.
They have a game-changing running back prospect in Breece Hall, a talented young receiver room that features Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore, and a decent offensive line.
If there's a team that should be willing to part with a higher draft pick in the pursuit of a veteran quarterback, it's the Jets. For one, they made four selections in the first 36 picks in 2022.
That's a great infusion of youth into the franchise, but it is also going to cost a lot of money by the time the four of them are up for new contracts. Dealing one of their earlier picks in this year's draft is going to make it easier on the payroll in the future while giving all of those potential stars on rookie contracts the best chance to shine.
The downside for the Raiders in this scenario is that it's only one pick in one draft. They were the beneficiary of that kind of trade last season when they gave up their first- and second-round picks in 2022 to acquire Davante Adams.
The only scenario in which Las Vegas is able to get a second-round pick is if it can generate a bidding war over the coming week. But the Jets are the only team with the kind of young foundation that may be willing to give up a selection worth as much as a second-rounder.
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