B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Way-Too-Early Heisman Bets
Although the Heisman won't be awarded for many months, the scouting process for the award begins now.
Well, technically that's not true. The process is already well underway.
All draft decisions have been made, and many meaningful portal transfers have already taken place. While plenty of rosters will still come together in the coming months, the picture is much clearer than it was weeks ago.
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With the Heisman odds board set, we're exploring some of our favorite early leans as the offseason hits its rhythm. We're also providing a few deeper dark horses to keep tabs on throughout the coming months.
These odds will change, as will our opinions. But the process of sorting through the potential candidates can't wait.
The favorites as of now are as follows: USC's Caleb Williams, your 2022 winner, leads the pack at +500. Florida State QB Jordan Travis (+1000) and UNC QB Drake Maye (+1200) are next in line.
While these quarterbacks certainly have plenty to offer, we're looking elsewhere. Here's a look at some of our favorite Heisman bets right now, with an emphasis on value.
All betting odds from DraftKings and current as of Wednesday, February 1.
Michael Penix Jr. (+1400)
Can Washington win enough games next fall for this outcome to be realized? If you believe that answer to be yes, you should absolutely love Penix at 14/1.
The former Indiana QB transferred to the Huskies last offseason, and his game was completely reborn. Penix scored 35 touchdowns last season for Washington, and his 357 passing yards per game were also the most in college football.
His offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, turned down an offer at Alabama to stay with the program, per ESPN's Adam Rittenberg. That is wonderful news for Penix; it also tells you the kind of team and opportunity Grubb believes he has.
The Huskies will lose a handful of key offensive linemen, and it will be critical that this unit is comfortable by fall. Outside of that, however, the majority of Penix's favorite weapons return.
Another year in this program and offense should only allow Penix to take that next step. For his Heisman campaign to blossom, the larger concern will be on the team as a whole.
Back to that original question: Can Washington flirt with the playoff?
The schedule includes trips to USC and Oregon State. The Huskies will also play Utah and Oregon at home. If they can win three of those games, which is plenty reasonable, he likely has a shot.
If you like the team—and you really should—you have to love the possibility of Penix contending for this award.
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (+2500)
It's easy to forget that McCarthy just finished his first full season as starter, showing flashes along the way that provide plenty of hope that the best is still yet to come.
This season, of course, ended on a sour note. McCarthy threw two interceptions in Michigan's playoff game against TCU—something he did not do all season. He also accounted for 343 passing yards, 52 rushing yards and scored three total touchdowns.
McCarthy has an enormous amount of talent that is still untapped, and it would not be the least bit surprising to see him really put it together his junior year. As a sophomore, he was certainly efficient: 27 total touchdowns and five interceptions. But this feels like a year in which those stats will climb.
The ingredients are in place for a massive year. The offensive line will need some reworking, although Jim Harbaugh has gone to the transfer portal to address these holes and more.
Elsewhere, running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards return, and the pressure on opposing defenses to defend the run will be enormous. At wide receiver, many of the key pass-catchers outside of Ronnie Bell will return.
As for the schedule, well, there's a lot to like. Michigan's two toughest games will be played at Penn State and at home against the Buckeyes. Outside of that, there are a slew of winnable games that should offer ample stat-padding possibilities.
McCarthy's play will need to improve for this to be realized, although the biggest box of all is being checked: the quarterback of a potential playoff team is likely to factor in the Heisman discussion, especially if he takes a reasonable leap forward.
Will Shipley (+5000)
At times, it has been agonizing to see the way Clemson has used running back Will Shipley over the past two seasons. Despite often being the best player on the field, Shipley went entire halves barely touching the football.
Even still, Shipley has become a do-everything back capable of beating defenses in a variety of different ways. He ran for 1,182 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2022 while averaging 5.6 yards per carry. He also caught 38 passes and even returned kicks.
That is the recipe for winning the Heisman as a running back, which has happened just once since 2010. The addition of offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, however, should provide some immediate hope.
The former TCU offensive coordinator engineered an enormous season. His addition is massive for Shipley, who should become the feature of an offense that is poised to rapidly improve.
The other plus? The schedule doesn't exactly have a ton of landmines on paper. Clemson plays Florida State and Notre Dame, but both of those games will be played at home. The rest of the trek is filled with largely winnable games.
Other Dark Horse Candidates Worth Monitoring
Looking for a little more value? Here are a few names to keep an eye on this spring.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (+6000)
Yes, it's hard for wide receivers to win the Heisman, but no wideout in college football delivers more jaw-dropping plays with regularity than Harrison. With a new quarterback, Harrison will likely be a bigger piece of Ohio State's offense than he already has been.
Dante Moore (+15000)
We dig deep for this one, and the odds certainly reflect how likely this outcome will be. Still, everyone I talk to is buzzing about Moore, the soon-to-be-freshman 5-star QB poised for rapid stardom at UCLA. It's probably too early, but he's worth keeping an eye on.
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