Gator Bowl Preview: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Florida Gators

Few bowls played between two 6-6 teams ever receive as much hype as this year’s Gator Bowl has. Of course, it is unusual that the Ohio State Buckeyes and Florida Gators only win half of their games in a season, let alone both in the same season.

Additionally, the headline of former Florida head coach Urban Meyer becoming the head coach of Ohio State, effective immediately after the Gator Bowl, has added extra buzz to this matchup.

The game will be played on Jan. 2 at 1 p.m. ET in Jacksonville, Fla. at EverBank Field. The game will be televised on ESPN2.

Note: Rankings used are from my national Top 25 rankings.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Record: 6-6 (3-5 Big Ten)

Biggest win: vs No. 9 Wisconsin, 33-29, Oct. 29

Worst loss: at Purdue, 23-26 (OT), Nov. 12

Coming off of the biggest scandal in school history—which resulted in the firing of head coach Jim Tressel, the end of quarterback Terrelle Pryor’s career with the Buckeyes and suspensions for starting running back Daniel Herron and wide receiver DeVier Posey (among others)—it was a very tough year for Ohio State football.

After a 3-3 start to the season, the Buckeyes appeared to have the turned the corner on the season with a three-game winning streak that included a huge upset victory over Wisconsin. The streak actually put the Buckeyes in the hunt to get to the Big Ten Championship Game, but that was short-lived, as the Buckyes lost their final three games of the season.

The Buckeyes' offense had an abysmal year. They rank 117th out of 120 FBS teams in passing offense, even behind triple-option offenses in Georgia Tech and Air Force. However, the Buckeyes have a solid defense, ranking 24th nationally in total defense.

Florida Gators

Record: 6-6 (3-5 SEC)

Biggest win: vs Vanderbilt, 26-21, Nov. 5

Worst loss: vs Florida State, 7-21, Nov. 26

It has been a tough first season for Will Muschamp as head coach of Florida, who took over when Urban Meyer resigned.

The Gators won their first four games of the season, but then lost their next four consecutive games. In Florida’s defense, all six of their losses came against teams ranked in the BCS top 25. The Gators only won one game against a bowl-eligible team, but every team they lost to was a quality opponent.

Like the Buckeyes, the Gators have struggled mightily this season offensively, ranking 102nd nationally in total offense. The strong point of their team is defense; they rank ninth nationally in total defense.

Players to Watch

Ohio State QB Braxton Miller, Freshman

Not yet graded for NFL Draft

If you have not seen an Ohio State football game this year, then it certainly seems peculiar that the quarterback for the 117th-ranked passing offense in the FBS is among the players to watch. Braxton Miller has had a very rough season, but he is the difference-maker on the Ohio State offense.

Braxton should not be blamed for Ohio State’s offensive struggles this season. After a tumultuous start to the season by senior quarterback Joe Bauserman, Miller was thrust into the starting role as a true freshman and had the tremendously difficult task of having to lead and turn around an offense while still getting acclimated to the system.

Miller has only completed half of his passes this season, but he has already shown displays of his ability to make plays, highlighted by his game-winning touchdown pass against Wisconsin. Miller has only thrown for 997 passing yards this season, but also leads the Buckeyes with 695 rushing yards.

With an extra month of practice, Miller has had more time to learn the system and improve as a young quarterback. I expect Miller to have his best game of the season in the Gator Bowl.

Ohio State DE John Simon, Junior

NFL Draft Grade: Round 5

John Simon is the leader and the star of Ohio State’s defense. Simon leads the Buckeyes with 15 tackles for loss and seven sacks this season.

Simon is a versatile defensive lineman who typically lines up as a defensive end, but can also kick inside. He is not a great athlete, but has good pass rushing skill, good size for a defensive end and a great motor.

Simon will most likely return to Ohio State for his senior season, but even if he does, this will be his final bowl game as a Buckeye as a result of the postseason ban that the Buckeyes received for 2012. Simon is the heart and soul of the Ohio State defense, and he will want to make a big statement in the final bowl game of his career.

Florida SS Matt Elam, Sophomore

2013 NFL Draft Grade: Round 2

Matt Elam took over at strong safety this season following last year’s graduation of Ahmad Black. Elam has filled the role perfectly, becoming the Gators top defensive playmaker, just as Black was last season.

Elam can do it all. He is an athletic safety who plays well in pass coverage. He leads the Gators with nine passes defended. Elam is also terrific in run support and as a blitzer. He is second on the team in tackles and leads the Gators with nine tackles for loss.

The Gators defense has a very bright future, with many very talented sophomores, not only Elam, but also defensive end Ronald Powell, defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd and linebacker Jelani Jenkins, all whom the Gators will be counting on to make plays. However, Elam is the biggest playmaker on the defense.

Comparing the Two Teams

Both teams finished the season with 6-6 records and 3-5 in-conference records.

Ohio State’s total offense: 107th in nation, 319.5 yards per game

Florida’s total defense: Ninth in nation, 299.6 yards allowed per game

Florida’s total offense: 102nd in nation, 334.2 yards per game

Ohio State’s total defense: 24th in nation, 328.6 yards allowed per game

Prediction Analysis

There are many similarities between these two teams. Both Ohio State and Florida are traditional powers, perennially ranked with winning records, but both teams come into this game with a 6-6 record, needing a victory for a winning season.

Additionally, both teams have strong defenses, but weak offenses. Both teams have first-year head coaches, with Luke Fickell’s year at Ohio State being his only year as the Buckeyes head coach, but Florida’s Will Muschamp expected to be their head coach for many years to come.

Both teams are young and inexperienced, with blossoming talent that should have these teams doing much better in the near future.

This should certainly be a low-scoring game, but the offensive X-factor in this game will be Buckeyes quarterback Braxton Miller, and if he is on his game, he will be able to make the difference that Ohio State needs to win this game.

The Gators certainly have a distinct home-field advantage, playing in a bowl practically named after them. Both teams are disappointed to be playing in the Gator Bowl, knowing they are capable of playing in much better bowl games.

However, I expect the Buckeyes upperclassmen to lead them to victory in this game. With their 2012 postseason ban, this will be the final bowl game for both the team’s seniors and juniors. If the players can channel their anger into the motivation to make a statement, the Buckeyes should come away with victory.

Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 17, Florida 13