The Biggest 'What Ifs?' of the 2022 College Football Season
As much as we like to believe the opposite, one play is never entirely responsible for any result in college football. But there are particular moments that seemingly define the season.
What if that turnover doesn't happen? Or the field goal is made, or the defense comes up with a clutch stop?
Heading into the national championship between Georgia and TCU, there are seven flashbacks—including two from one program—that have helped shape the final matchup of the 2022 season.
The list, organized chronologically, is subjective but focuses on the College Football Playoff picture.
What If USC Stops Utah's Conversion?
1 of 6In mid-October, two-loss Utah had already exited the national race. Although the Utes entered the 2022 season with CFP hopes, setbacks against Florida and UCLA shattered that vision quickly.
However, they still played spoiler in a 43-42 victory over then-undefeated USC. Utah quarterback Cameron Rising scored a last-minute touchdown and added the winning two-point conversion. Utah's defense stalled USC's desperation effort and sealed the win.
What if USC's defense, for all its flaws, managed to come up with a stop? What if, as Rising scrambled toward the end zone, either USC defender had a better angle to take him down?
USC could have exited Salt Lake City at 7-0, and the Trojans certainly would've been favored the rest of the way.
In the Pac-12 Championship Game, USC wouldn't have played—or lost, again—to Utah. Instead, a surprising 10-win Washington theoretically (more on that shortly) would have awaited the Trojans.
USC had a chance to make the CFP anyway, and Washington certainly had the offensive firepower to win too. There are no guarantees here. But it's safe to say that Utah, which has appeared in four of the last five conference title games, was a more confident opponent.
What If Alabama Survives LSU?
2 of 6Although the Alabama Crimson Tide fell at Tennessee, they remained a key SEC and national contender. And if Alabama could have taken out LSU in Baton Rouge, both championships would've stayed in play.
Obviously, that did not happen. LSU continued its mid-year turnaround with a 32-31 triumph. Jayden Daniels scampered for a 25-yard score in overtime and lasered a two-point conversion to Mason Taylor, giving LSU the upset win and effectively ruining Bama's season.
Let's hypothesize that Alabama, one way or another, held LSU in overtime and escaped with a victory.
What would have happened on Selection Day?
As the SEC champion, Bama would've been in, of course. Even if the Tide fell to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, they could've had a more convincing resume than Ohio State—which had fewer year-end Top 25 victories and endured a blowout from rival Michigan to close November.
Alabama's close losses to Tennessee and Georgia might have been comparatively forgivable. Maybe not, sure! But we don't know the answer to a ranking hypothetical. If not for LSU, Bama could've made it.
What If Bo Nix Doesn't Get Hurt?
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One week later, Oregon also watched its playoff dreams evaporate.
Washington went to Eugene and clipped the Ducks 37-34 behind a 400-yard effort from Michael Penix Jr., the Indiana transfer who propelled UW to a remarkable year.
Late in the fourth quarter, however, Oregon quarterback Bo Nix landed awkwardly and hurt his ankle. Washington evened the score at 34, and Nix watched the ensuing possession from the sideline. The drive resulted in a turnover on downs that led to UW's winning field goal. Nix returned partway through the ensuing drive, but it was too late.
The injury continued to clearly affect Nix, who'd scampered for 512 yards and 14 touchdowns to that point.
Over the following three contests—Utah, Oregon State and North Carolina—he practically never ran. Nix mustered a long run of six yards during that closing stretch into bowl season.
Flip this result, and Oregon could've met USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game with a CFP trip at stake.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
What If South Carolina Goes Quietly?
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South Carolina carried a nice 6-4 record into a season-ending gauntlet with Top 10 teams Tennessee and Clemson. Nobody would've blinked if the Gamecocks lost twice.
After all, that was the clear expectation. We're talking about a team that had lost at home to Missouri and by a staggering 32 points at Florida in the three previous weeks. South Carolina didn't inspire much confidence as this final stretch approached.
Well, the joke was on us.
Even before Hendon Hooker's unfortunate knee injury in the fourth quarter, the Gamecocks held an 18-point lead. They scored two late touchdowns to roll Tennessee 63-38 before upsetting Clemson 31-30 and ending the rival's 40-game winning streak at home.
If you wanted Selection Day controversy, blame South Carolina alone for preventing a really terrific one.
Pick one team: 11-1 Tennessee with no SEC title, 11-1 Ohio State with no Big Ten crown or 12-1 ACC champion Clemson. The answer is unclear, but UT and Clemson likely had the strongest resumes—even despite Hooker's absence. South Carolina stopped the debate before it could happen.
What If Michigan Doesn't Fumble?
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Should a review have overturned Roman Wilson's touchdown catch? No. However, the Wolverines still had control over what followed, which was a 1st-and-goal inside TCU's 1-yard line. They potentially had four opportunities to punch in a short touchdown.
And they simply gave it away.
J.J. McCarthy and Kalel Mullings mishandled the exchange, and TCU's Bud Clark—who already had returned an interception for a touchdown—pounced on the ball. Instead of trimming a 14-3 deficit, Michigan wasted a prime scoring opportunity and ultimately could not track down the Horned Frogs. TCU advanced to the national title with a 51-45 win.
At the moment of the fumble, the Wolverines seemed to be finding their comfort zone after a rough start. Some version of a comeback felt inevitable, and Michigan basically had three full quarters to play. It's likely U-M would've been the live betting favorite with a touchdown here.
TCU went into the locker room leading 21-6, added a second pick-six in the second half and ripped off two massive gains to fuel a couple of clutch, late scoring drives.
Michigan has nobody to blame but itself for the loss. And it can largely be traced back to this giveaway.
What If Ohio State Hangs On?
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What if Buckeyes receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. doesn't get hurt? What if Georgia coach Kirby Smart's key timeout doesn't thwart a successful fake punt? What if Noah Ruggles buries the 50-yard field goal in the closing seconds?
No matter which one is more haunting, the Buckeyes could not find their winning moment in a 42-41 CFP semifinal loss to Georgia.
Ohio State would've headed to Los Angeles as the favorite against TCU. The regular-season loss to Michigan wouldn't have remained such a bitter memory if the Buckeyes won a national championship—with a bit of schadenfreude as their rival lost in a CFP semifinal.
The perception of coach Ryan Day could've been changed overnight. Among many others, star quarterback C.J. Stroud could've headed to the NFL as a national champion. And on and on.
Instead, the Buckeyes are in offseason mode as Georgia prepares for a shot to join a small list of programs to win consecutive titles.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
