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B/R College Football 2022 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Bowl Season Part 2

Adam KramerDecember 21, 2022

STARKVILLE, MS - OCTOBER 08:  Arkansas Razorbacks fans hold up face cut outs of Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman before the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Arkansas Razorbacks on October 8, 2022 at Wade Davis Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi. (Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

'Tis the season for winners.

No matter what the calendar tells us, that is always the goal. And once again, we're celebrating a solid performance.

A solid regular season carried over into our first bowl installment. Our initial round of picks went 5-2 against the spread, pushing our overall season tally to 79-53-4. With many games still to be broken down and bet on, we're not stopping now.

Our second chapter from bowl picks will take us from December 23rd to December 29th. After we're done here, we'll turn our attention to the major bowls and, of course, the College Football Playoff.

Until then, here are more winners.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday.


Gasparilla Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Missouri (Over 59)

DURHAM, NC - NOVEMBER 26: Sam Hartman (10) of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons looks to pass the ball during a football game between the Duke Blue Devils and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Nov 26, 2022 at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, NC. (Photo by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

It is possible that this game winds up being one of the best of the entire bowl season.

It will take place on Friday evening, just in time for a quality holiday distraction. While I lean Missouri, I lean much heavier toward the over.

Offensively, Wake Forest has a statistical edge. The Demon Deacons were No. 15 in scoring offense this season, and they will have QB Sam Hartman back for one last ride. The Hartman-powered attack scored at least 30 points in all but two games this year, and I expect Wake to cruise past that number.

Missouri, which was up and down offensively, should be able to do the same. Facing a difficult path in the SEC, the Tigers flashed at times. QB Brady Cook might not be on the same level as Hartman, but he's capable. And he should have plenty of changes going up against the nation's No. 93 ranked scoring defense.

Prepare for touchdowns.


Birmingham Bowl: East Carolina (-7.5) vs. Coastal Carolina

SALT LAKE CITY UT- OCTOBER 28: Elijah Morris #90 of the East Carolina Pirates carries the football as he celebrates recovering a Brigham Young Cougars fumble with teammates Myles Berry #34 and J.D. Lampley #99 during the first half of the game of their game at the LaVell Edwards Stadium October 28, 2022 in Provo, Utah. (Photo by Chris Gardner/ Getty Images)
Chris Gardner/ Getty Images

Is Coastal Carolina completely cooked? I believe that answer is clear.

Absolutely.

Now, it's not that simple. There are a few moving parts we need to account for, and it starts with the head coach. Jamey Chadwell, who really engineered the Coastal movement, is off to Liberty. That's the bad news.

The good news is that QB Grayson McCall is back from injury. (The not-so-great news for the program is that this will be his final game before he intends to transfer.)

Still, having him back is significant. His absence down the stretch really hurt the Chanticleers, which failed to cover the spread in the final three games.

East Carolina, meanwhile, has had its moments. This program has consistently improved over the past few years, and the Pirates were a problem once again in a solid conference.

ECU also fared well in many big games, beating UCF convincingly and playing tough against Cincinnati. Playing a team undergoing a great deal of change feels like a quality matchup at just the right time.

Pirates by double digits.


Military Bowl: UCF (+3) vs. Duke

TAMPA, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 26: Mikey Keene #13 of the UCF Knights drops back to throw a pass in the fourth quarter against the South Florida Bulls at Raymond James Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

The homestretch wasn't exactly pristine for UCF. A loss to Navy followed by an even bigger loss to Tulane in the conference championship put a damper on an otherwise solid season.

Still, the Knights won nine games, beat Cincinnati and Tulane during the regular season and nearly won the AAC. If you're going to give me three points against a team like Duke, I'm going to take them.

Now, that's not a true knock on the Blue Devils. In fact, they were one of the best stories of the year given where expectations started. Duke was also a covering machine, hitting the spread in nine of 12 games.

The Blue Devils also closed out the year winning four of five games, culminating with an impressive win over Wake Forest in the finale.

Still, it feels like UCF is the more explosive group. And while I love what Duke has done, I think the Knights triumph in a high-scoring, supremely fun game.


Liberty Bowl: Arkansas (-3) vs. Kansas

COLUMBIA, MO - NOVEMBER 25: Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson (1) follows his blockers during a run in the first quarter of an SEC college football game between the Arkansas Razorbacks and Missouri Tigers on November 25, 2022 at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

On the topic of good stories, enter Kansas.

In the early part of the season, the Jayhawks were the "it" team in college football. Despite some stumbles along the way, KU still deserves the utmost credit for a rather dramatic turnaround.

Arkansas can relate when it comes to stumbles. The Hogs lost three of their final four games. While there are no excuses, injuries and a brutal schedule certainly played a role in lackluster finish.

Getting KJ Jefferson back healthy for this game and next season will be an enormous lift. When he wasn't banged up this year, Jefferson was a difference-maker. Playing against the nation's No. 119-ranked scoring defense should provide plenty of opportunities for success.

Arkansas lost some quality players to the transfer portal and opt-outs, including linebacker Drew Sanders. But I don't think it matters in this particular game.

Razorbacks pour on the points and win by enough.


Alamo Bowl: Washington vs. Texas (Over 67)

AUSTIN, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 25: Quinn Ewers #3 of the Texas Longhorns warms up before the game against the Baylor Bears at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on November 25, 2022 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
Tim Warner/Getty Images

It seems distinctly possible that these two teams will break the scoreboard.

Yes, I want this to happen. Make no mistake about that as we dive into the analysis portion of this matchup. I want touchdowns. I want a five-hour football game. I want very little defense and an abundance of offense.

But it also seems reasonable to believe these things are coming.

Washington finished with the nation's No. 4 scoring offense, and QB Michael Penix Jr., who was a big part of this, will be back for this game and next year.

Texas finished No. 20 in scoring, although it will not have running back Bijan Robinson for this matchup. That last one hurts on the scoring front; let's not sugarcoat it.

Regardless, both of these teams were accustomed to hitting overs this past season, including the last two games for each program. Even without Robinson, QB Quinn Ewers should be able to muster up at least 30 points against a defense that allowed on average nearly 27 points per game this year.

What a fun football game this could be.


Other Games On the Card

MADISON, WISCONSIN - NOVEMBER 26: Head Coach P. J. Fleck of Minnesota Golden Gophers looks on during the first half of the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
John Fisher/Getty Images

Hawai'i Bowl: Middle Tennessee (+7) vs. San Diego State

Oh, I missed this football game. We've lost it for a few seasons, but it is now back. Christmas Eve simply hasn't been the same without it. While San Diego State ultimately wins, Middle Tennessee keeps an ugly football game close enough.


Pinstripe Bowl: Minnesota (-10) vs. Syracuse

It was an odd football season for both teams. Each came out of the gate strong, although things fell apart after that. Minnesota feels like the more complete group, and it shows at Yankee Stadium.