Non-bowl Teams That Will Improve Dramatically in 2023
Bowl season is upon us, but there are plenty of college football teams already having to focus on the 2023 season.
Several of those already have made splash hires after getting rid of their coaches during the most recent tumult. Others have coaches too good to continue this level of ineptitude. Then, there's another one with questionable coaching but a ton of talent, despite the dysfunction.
There are reasons to be excited at proud places like Auburn and Nebraska as teams usher in new eras. Then, there's a program like Michigan State, which endured a shocking season but surely won't do it again, will they?
Sure, '22 was a disappointment for these programs, but college football is too big of a business to allow coaches to roam the sideline if they're down for too long. So, expect big changes and bigger improvements next year.
Let's take a look at some programs sitting at home this postseason that should see a leap next year.
Arizona Wildcats
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In the transfer portal era, you never know how things are going to shake out, but one team positioned extremely well for the future is the Arizona Wildcats.
In his second season in Tucson, coach Jedd Fisch went a long way in rebuilding the program, going from a 1-11 campaign to 5-7. That's pretty remarkable considering Arizona had won just one game in the past two seasons.
An exciting young team that replenished its roster with offensive superlatives through recruiting and the portal a year ago needs to do the same on defense this offseason. Arizona averaged more than 30 points per game, but the Wildcats also allowed 36.5. That won't get it done.
What will get things moving is an offense with guys like quarterback Jayden de Laura, who transferred over from Washington State and ignited the offense with his arm and feet.
Freshman receiver Tetairoa McMillan is a star-in-the-making, and running backs Jonah Coleman and Rayshon "Speedy" Luke and are excellent building blocks. As a matter of fact, Arizona's entire running back room (led by DJ Williams) can return, even though Fisch told AZ Desert Swarm's Brian J. Pedersen to expect significant turnover again this offseason.
The X-factor is receiver Jacob Cowing, who is mulling the NFL draft. If he returns, the offense is going to be loaded. The offseason focus needs to be on fixing the D, and if Fisch can do that, expect seven or eight wins next year and a bowl berth.
Auburn Tigers
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Say what you want about Hugh Freeze—and it seems everybody on social media has an opinion—but the man can coach football. If you go by strictly on-field acumen, Auburn getting him from Liberty was a no-brainer.
The biggest move Freeze made, too, was keeping on interim coach Carnell "Cadillac" Williams and promoting him to associate head coach.
Now, the loveliest village on the Plains is united and hopeful about turning around a 5-7 record and moving on from an ugly, tumultuous two-year tenure for Bryan Harsin.
With Williams around, Auburn's running game is going to be stout, and there are still some good pieces around which to build its defense. The Tigers have always been able to recruit, which made Harsin's struggles luring top talent there so puzzling. His lack of ties to the South was obvious.
There are no such issues for Freeze, who brought in terrific classes at Ole Miss, even if the end was muddied by NCAA recruiting violations.
The Tigers desperately need to build quality depth, especially in the defensive front seven. And, more important than that, the Tigers must find a quarterback who can move the ball downfield with his arm or develop Robby Ashford. Freeze has enjoyed sterling success with quarterbacks throughout his career, so you have to feel good about a turnaround there.
Auburn awaits the NFL decision from star running back Tank Bigsby, and if he returns, it's another huge boost to the 2023 outlook. The cupboard isn't bare on the Plains; there is just work to be done through recruiting and transfers.
Freeze is about to turn up the heat on the SEC West at his new stomping grounds.
California Bears
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If you want another Pac-12 program with a much higher trajectory, Arizona State would have gone in this spot with Kenny Dillingham a terrific, young hire and quarterback Trenton Bourguet at his disposal. But the turnaround from 3-9 is just too great for one season.
Instead, the California Bears got the nod, just because of how close they were to making the postseason this year.
The bottom line is 2023 is a do-or-die season for Justin Wilcox, which is why he fired his offensive coordinator and is looking for a home run to turn around that side of the ball. Yes, graduate transfer Jack Plummer is gone, but Kai Millner is an exciting, young quarterback who could do big things in Berkeley.
Don't discount the idea of Cal bringing in another transfer quarterback, either, and they have one of the top young running backs in the nation in Jaydn Ott, who ran for 897 yards, added 321 receiving and scored 11 touchdowns.
Cal is going to be fine on offense if everybody stays, and a defense that finished ninth in the Pac-12 is an outlier. There's no way a Wilcox-led team will allow that to happen again.
The Bears lost by seven to Notre Dame, seven to Washington, six to USC and seven to UCLA. That's four close losses against pretty darn good teams. Expect Cal to step up and play for its coach's job next year and the Bears to get back to seven wins.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Florida Atlantic Owls
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The Florida Atlantic Owls made a brilliant hire last week when they tabbed former Texas coach Tom Herman to take over for ousted Willie Taggart.
Now, Herman is heading to Boca Raton to try to re-capture what Lane Kiffin did before bolting for Ole Miss. There are resources, talent all around him and plenty of reasons to like FAU making a large leap in Conference USA a year from now.
Replacing quarterback N'Kosi Perry won't be easy after a brilliant final campaign, but with Herman on board, the Owls are going to lure a transfer quarterback to play for them.
When you pair whoever that is with 1,000-yard rusher Larry McCammon and freshman Zuberi Mobley, there are some nice pieces to the rebuild already in place. The Owls' top six receivers also have eligibility remaining.
A defense that ranked fourth in scoring defense in CUSA and seventh in total defense wasn't as horrible as the record indicates, and the Owls were an overtime loss to Western Kentucky (a team in the conference championship game) from going bowling this year.
Taggart's coaching career has been disastrous in his last two stops, and it simply boils down to his inability to win enough. But he's stockpiled some talent, and Herman has the coaching chops to take it, add some players from the transfer portal and make a big swing.
The Owls can make some noise in 2023.
Iowa State Cyclones
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This was always going to be a transition year for coach Matt Campbell and Iowa State following the loss of program cornerstones and legends like running back Breece Hall and signal-caller stalwart Brock Purdy.
But going 4-8 was quite a fall from grace, especially considering just how much national love Campbell gets.
Iowa State is a treacherous place to win, and even though Campbell is slightly overrated, he's still a pretty good coach who is a good developer of talent. There's just no historical evidence the Cyclones are going to continue in any sort of consistent downward trajectory.
In other words, better on a Campbell-coached team to stay in the doldrums that were only compounded by a season-ending 48-point loss to TCU is unwise.
The Cyclones averaged a measly 108 rushing yards per game, which is stunning considering they're coming off the halcyon Hall days. You have to figure they'll figure things out, and between quarterbacks Hunter Dekkers, incoming 4-star J.J. Kohl and Rocco Becht, there is talent under center.
Losing Biletnikoff Award finalist Xavier Hutchinson is going to be another major blow to overcome from a roster perspective, but Iowa State still led the Big 12 in total defense and was second in scoring defense, despite a four-win season.
Offensive woes were the culprit, and Campbell has too much national clout to stay in the water-treading, do-nothing phase. He's already decided there will be coaching changes, and if you add potential transfer portal talent, Iowa State is going to make some moves that lead to a turnaround in '23.
Look for them to be back bowling again.
Miami Hurricanes
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There was nothing super about Super Mario Cristobal's first season in Coral Gables, despite all the headlines he made when Miami lured him from Oregon.
Rather than an immediate return to "The U", Miami limped to a 5-7 record, low-lighted by a lopsided loss to Middle Tennessee.
Tyler Van Dyke was one of the breakout candidate quarterbacks entering the season, but injuries derailed his campaign and he wound up throwing for just 1,844 yards and 10 touchdowns. Jake Garcia wasn't great in relief, either.
The biggest downfalls, though, were Miami's ineffective running game, a minus-3 turnover differential, a lack of big plays, a defense that ranked eighth or lower in the ACC in total defense, scoring defense, rush defense and pass defense and had inconsistency in every facet of the game.
If the offense looked good like against Middle Tennessee, the pass defense was torched. If the defense played OK, young quarterbacks like Garcia and Jacurri Brown made major mistakes.
Cristobal is an elite recruiter who currently has the ninth-rated class with plenty more great players in the mix. The class is led by 5-stars Cormani McClain (cornerback) and Francis Mauigoa (offensive lineman). South Beach is always an intriguing destination for players who enter the transfer portal, and you have to believe the quality of depth and talent will continue to improve.
There are lots of reasons to look for a big turnaround next year, but with a healthy Van Dyke and another year for Cristobal to implement his system, better days are around the corner.
Michigan State Spartans
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No matter how you dice it up, 2022 was an epic failure from a Michigan State team from which much was expected.
The Spartans were coming off an 11-2 campaign and a Peach Bowl win over Pittsburgh and locked down coach Mel Tucker to a long-term, high-dollar contract. Then, they proceeded to go out and lay a big green egg with a 5-7 record.
That can't happen, and Tucker is getting paid way too much money not to fix it.
Without question, this season was an abject failure across the board. Despite the warts of a poor secondary two years ago, the Spartans actually took a step back on defense, finishing 13th out of 14 teams in the Big Ten in total defense and 10th in scoring defense.
Kenneth Walker III didn't walk through that door, either. While MSU got Jalen Berger from Wisconsin and Jarek Broussard from Colorado, neither made much of a difference in the backfield, and the Spartans had quarterback issues, as well.
Tucker is recruiting well again, and he has been a monster getting guys out of the portal the past couple of years. So, reinforcements should be on the way. Tucker has talent in the quarterback room with Noah Kim and Katin Houser ready to step in for Payton Thorne if he continues to be ineffective.
If he isn't confident in his deep but ineffective running back room, expect Tucker to go portal-mining again. The stakes are too high not to make some massive moves, and expect the Spartans to have the resources to do it.
Should we expect 11 wins from them in 2023? Absolutely not. But they won't lose seven again, either.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
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When Nebraska athletic director Trev Alberts basically said "money isn't an issue" and fired Scott Frost three weeks before the program could have saved more than $8 million, he proved how in-sync he was with the Big Red faithful.
Anything less than a marquee hire would have been unacceptable, and Alberts had all season to test the waters and hand-pick his guy. The search ended with Matt Rhule, and honestly, it couldn't be a better fit.
The former coach at Temple and Baylor who made an NFL pit stop in Carolina before heading back to the college game is known as a program builder, and while it normally takes him a couple of years for a turnaround, we're going to roll the dice here and say he makes a big leap in '23.
Nebraska is a sleeping giant. The proud, loyal fans deserve so much better than what the Huskers have recently endured, and a 4-8 season in 2022 was the height of a run of misery that saw favorite son Frost essentially steal money with his inept coaching performance.
The Huskers saw its biggest playmaker (Trey Palmer) declare for the NFL draft already, but they will still have guys like quarterback Casey Thompson and running back Anthony Grant around which to build. Once Frost was ousted, the defense got a ton better, too.
Now, Rhule is going to bring with him a staff full of coaches with pro experience, and while he isn't known for his recruiting acumen, the coach is going to get the type of guys he needs to run his system and succeed in a Big Ten West that is wide open. In this portal era, look for Rhule to learn the ways of Nebraska quickly and learn to sell everything this program has to offer.
This is a match made in magic.
Texas A&M Aggies
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With as much talent as Texas A&M had on the roster and especially coming off the best recruiting class ever assembled on paper, a 5-7 record was unacceptable.
Throw in just how much money coach Jimbo Fisher is making and there are many reasons why he's on the hot seat. You simply can't fail to make a bowl game when you have all the resources at Fisher's disposal in College Station.
But there's way, way too much talent on this roster for the Aggies to have a repeat performance in 2023. Of course, the big asterisk on this slide is if enough of the talent stays and there isn't a mass exodus following a season where things seem to teeter on the brink of lost control more often than once.
Still, even with all the tumult around the program, the Aggies were able to pull everything together and pull off an upset of SEC West champion LSU to close the season, perhaps giving a glimpse of just what could be attainable next year.
Losing running back Devon Achane is going to be a major blow, and the Aggies must get better at the quarterback position. True freshman Conner Weigman finally provided a glimmer of hope, throwing for nearly 900 yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions.
It also appears a change of philosophy is on the way after Fisher fired offensive coordinator Darrell Dickey. Still, Fisher holds a key role in the careening offense of the past two seasons, and whether he will make a dynamic hire and relinquish play-calling duties remain to be seen.
If he does and the Aggies implement some innovation, there's so much talent to turn things around and be a competitor in the SEC West.
If not, Fisher's gone.
All stats courtesy of CFBStats and Sports Reference. Player rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Follow Brad Shepard on Twitter, @Brad_Shepard.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
