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Braves Rumors: Dansby Swanson Expected to Get at Least 6 Years in Free-Agent Contract

Adam WellsNovember 30, 2022

PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 15: Atlanta Braves Shortstop Dansby Swanson (7) throws out Philadelphia Phillies Catcher J.T. Realmuto (10) (not pictured) after fielding a ground ball during the eighth inning of Game 4 of the NLDS between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies on October 15, 2022, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA.(Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Coming off a career year in 2022, All-Star shortstop Dansby Swanson is expected to fetch a significant long-term deal this offseason.

Per ESPN's Jeff Passan, Swanson is expected to receive a contract of at least six years in length.

The free-agent market is flush with top-tier shortstops, including Swanson, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts. It doesn't seem like any of them will struggle to find massive deals, with Passan writing Correa and Turner are likely to get at least $250 million.

Passan noted Swanson's value is helped because he is the only player in that group who is expected to remain at shortstop for the bulk of his career.

It's difficult to assess what type of offensive player Swanson will be going forward because he's been so inconsistent. The Vanderbilt alum has a .255/.321/.417 career slash line in 827 games over seven seasons.

Swanson has just two seasons with an above-average OPS+ in six full years since 2017. One of those came in 2020, when the season was shortened to 60 games because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The past three seasons have seen Swanson showcase more power than he had early in his career. The 28-year-old slugged .464 in 2020 and has hit 52 homers since the start of 2021. Willy Adames (56) and Bo Bichette (53) are the only shortstops with more home runs during that span.

Per FanGraphs', Swanson ranks second among all shortstops in defensive value (31.0) and tied for second in outs above average (23) since 2021. Francisco Lindor is the only player ahead of him in both categories.

A six-year deal would only take Swanson through his age-34 season. If he can maintain his recent power output and continue to play like an elite defensive shortstop, his value would be worth that type of investment for a team looking to solidify the position.