B/R College Football 2022 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 10

We are running out of games.

I don’t mean to alarm you, but it can’t wait for another week. It is Week 10 of the college football season (somehow), and the beginning of the end has begun.

When the College Football Playoff rankings appear, it serves as a reminder. Appreciate every game and every betting opportunity before it’s too late.

In terms of betting, we cooled off some with a 4-6 showing after a dashing 8-1 performance the week before. For the year, however, we are still a cool 51-34-3. That is not a bad place to be with November upon us.

Before we get to this week’s picks, here’s what went right and wrong last week.

The Good: Louisville (+3.5) vs. Wake Forest

The week before, we backed Miami. The Hurricanes proceeded to turn the ball over eight times. This week, we backed Louisville, and the Cardinals’ opponent, Wake Forest, turned the ball over eight times. Solid justice after a rough pick.

The Bad: Auburn (+3.5) vs. Arkansas

Well, this didn’t work. The spread felt a bit on the small side, although Arkansas essentially controlled this game from the very start. Pro tip: If you bet on a team and that team fires its coach the following week, you’re probably not going to win your bet.

With that out of the way, time for more winners.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday.

Iowa State (-7) vs. West Virginia

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Oh, it’s been a rough stretch for Iowa State. Let’s not sugarcoat it.

Here at Locks of the Week, however, we like to do some discount shopping. And right now, Iowa State is in the bargain bin.

The oddsmakers don’t necessarily agree. Despite losing five consecutive conference games, the Cyclones are still getting plenty of love against a team that just hung with TCU one week ago. (West Virginia should have covered the spread against the Horned Frogs, although QB Max Duggan decided to deliver a tremendously bad beat instead.)

Many who watched WVU compete against TCU will gladly take the points. I’m heading the other direction, backing the home team that normally puts up a really solid fight at home. That wasn’t the case against Oklahoma last week, although a rebound is in order.

Cyclones roll.

Texas (-2.5) at Kansas State

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On the topic of oddsmakers having faith in a certain Big 12 team, enter Texas.

The Longhorns are a curious program in many ways. No, they are not currently “back,” but there are signs that things are improving. There are also signs that this team still struggles to close out close games.

(See: Oct. 22 against Oklahoma State.)

That particular matchup is a curious one as it pertains to this week’s game. Kansas State just obliterated the Pokes a week after Texas was unable to close out a win against them. Despite this very direct comparison of outcomes, Texas is still a small favorite against a team that is surging.

It is difficult to have sane dialog surrounding the Longhorns these days. On one hand, they have three losses—about two too many. On the other hand, Texas has lost those three games by a combined 11 points.

The talent is in place, and I believe it shows. (Unless Texas blows it at the end. In that case, please remove this text from your brain.)

Alabama at LSU (Over 58)

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There will be points, probably.

Historically, that hasn’t always been the case with this rivalry. In 2016, Alabama won this game 10-0. In 2017, Saban’s team won 24-10. And last year, the Crimson Tide won by a non-explosive total of 20-14.

That shouldn’t be the case, and the total reflects that. Alabama has the nation’s No. 4 scoring offense; LSU, despite a slow start, is now No. 28 in the country.

For context, Alabama has won this game 10 of the past 11 times. The one loss came courtesy of Joe Burrow, the former LSU QB who delivered a historic season in 2019.

Although the environment will be ready, so will Bryce Young. The Alabama QB enjoyed a bye at the perfect time, and his injured throwing shoulder should be in much better shape as a result.

While I don’t expect this game to be particularly close, I do expect there to be plenty of touchdowns on both sides.

Wisconsin (-5) vs. Maryland

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As we enter November, the Badgers are a perplexing evaluation.

At moments, Wisconsin has looked somewhat competent. At others, especially early on, that wasn’t the case.

Of late, however, things have improved. A win over Purdue in Week 8 before the bye was a huge step in the right direction. And the fact that the oddsmakers have the Badgers as such a sizable favorite over a six-win team is a good sign.

Although the Terps have six wins, they have not covered a spread since Week 5. They have also played only three road games this year, and they nearly lost at Indiana as a double-digit favorite the last time they traveled.

While Week 10 could see an abundance of road teams pull off wins and upsets, this won’t be one of them. Interim head coach Jim Leonhard is trying to win the position permanently, and he comes one step closer with a win.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) vs. Syracuse

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Let’s talk about last week, Pittsburgh.

The Panthers were plenty competitive for much of their game against North Carolina. UNC proceeded to outscore Pitt 21-0 in the fourth quarter, and our bet on the Panthers went up in flames.

We’re back on that horse this week against a Syracuse team that is still ranked despite losing consecutive games. The Orange had no answer for the Irish at home, allowing 41 points to an offense that has struggled some this year.

Notre Dame ran for 246 yards in that game, which is great news for Pitt running back Israel Abanikanda. He’s third in the nation in rushing yards, and he’ll be an enormous factor here.

While I love the season ‘Cuse has enjoyed, it feels like a third loss is coming. At home, Pittsburgh takes care of business, covers the spread and finally pays us after disappointing us last weekend.

Other Games on the Card

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Notre Dame (+3.5) vs. Clemson

The No. 4-ranked team in the College Football Playoff is only a small favorite against an unranked foe? If you’ve followed this weekly staple long enough, you know which way we like to go in these games.

UCLA at Arizona State (Over 66.5)

Although the total has come up a few points, it’s not scaring me. UCLA and Arizona are both in position to provide offense. (In fact, it wouldn’t shock me to see ASU give the Bruins a scare.) Either way, there will be a whole bunch of points along the way.

Tulsa (+7.5) vs. Tulane

The line seems funky to me when you consider that Tulane is ranked and on a roll. Tulsa, meanwhile, is 3-5, although the Golden Hurricane have played close games against some quality teams. That’s exactly what happens here.

Memphis (+3.5) vs. UCF

Last week, UCF won us money in a win over Cincinnati. This week, Memphis is positioned to do the same thing at home despite losing three straight games. As we have said before, it’s not personal. It’s just business.

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