Imagining the 12-Team Playoff after the First CFP Rankings of 2022
The first College Football Playoff rankings of the year were announced Tuesday evening, with the Tennessee Volunteers leading the way, followed by Ohio State, Georgia and Clemson.
The rest of the slate will tell whether the committee got things right, but until all that plays out, let's pull out our crystal ball and peek into what things would look like in a 12-team playoff, which we'll all get to see beginning in 2026.
If that was happening this year, there would be so much more hype excitement than we have right now, if you can imagine that. In a year where things are truly wide-open, how much fun would an expanded playoff be?
So, how would the 12-team playoff look, based on Tuesday's ranking? If you recall, the parameters of the '26 playoff scenario are the four highest-ranked conference champions would receive a first-round bye. The highest-ranked Group of Five team would get an automatic bid, and the other five participants would be at-large.
Assuming the highest-ranked team from this year's initial rankings ultimately wins their conference, the following slides gives us a hypothetical scenario of how a 12-team free-for-all would play out. Please note, the CFP rankings are in parentheses at the top of each slide.
Away we go!
First Round Game 1: No. 12 Tulane Green Wave (19) at No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (3)
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Despite being ranked 19th, Tulane would be the beneficiary of an atrociously down year for Group of Five programs and sneak into the College Football Playoffs, whether you think they belong or not.
While they're no 2021 Cincinnati Bearcats, the Green Wave are a fun, complete team and may be the class of the AAC this year. But, of course, they would be the lowest seed in this tourney.
And no matter how nice of a story they are, the Green Wave aren't in the same stratosphere as the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs, who get a bit of a raw deal considering they're ranked third in the CFP rankings but miss the auto bye, thanks to Tennessee. Instead, they'll be the highest seed of the "others."
That chip on their shoulder plays. This game would be a horrifically one-sided mismatch from the beginning as coach Kirby Smart's wave after wave of elite athlete from the past few top-shelf recruiting classes overwhelms Willie Fritz's team.
Quarterback Stetson Bennett would play a little more than a half, just enough to warm up for the bigger rounds, and UGA's defense would dominate like it was '21 all over again. Michael Pratt and Tyjae Spears may hook up once, but this would never be close.
Dawgs dominate and move on.
Projection: Georgia 48, Tulane 6
First Round Game 2: No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels (11) at No. 6 Michigan Wolverines (5)
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Another team that would get a little bit of a playoff rankings shaft based on the approved format would be the Michigan Wolverines.
Due to a plate-glass-thin out-of-conference schedule, the Big Ten powerhouse that was in last year's final four was left out of the top four this season, coming in with the No. 5 ranking. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, with Ohio State ahead of them, they drop to the sixth seed, setting up a showdown with Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss Rebels.
This game has plenty of intrigue, as the Rebels are fully capable of putting together a quality game with a dynamic running back duo of Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans, along with Jekyll and Hyde signal-caller Jaxson Dart.
After a backloaded schedule that helped Michigan elevate its game in the late season, though, the Wolverines prove they're one of the nation's most complete games.
Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards win the Battle of the Best Backfield, and J.J. McCarthy makes some big plays with the game on the line. Meanwhile, the Wolverines pull away in the fourth quarter, thanks to a defense that far out-classes the Rebels.
Kiffin has a good group, but they aren't as good as last year's Peach Bowl team and are likely the third-best team in the SEC West. Big Blue prevails.
Projection: Michigan 33, Ole Miss 24
First Round Game 3: No. 10 LSU Tigers (10) at No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide (6)
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If you don't like College Football Playoff rematches after a regular-season tilt, you'd better get your fill of the next four years of the current four-team system.
Because, as this projected exercise will show you, repeat showdowns are unavoidable, and, if you embrace them, they may just wind up giving us some of the best atmospheres of any college football game.
Alabama and LSU are no strangers to the spotlight. Nick Saban has won enough hardware to fill Denny Chimes since coming to Tuscaloosa, and everybody knows by now he was an LSU Tiger back in the day. So, the subplots between these two SEC West rivals who play every year are many.
One of these teams will fall in the rankings after they meet this weekend, but in this scenario, it's the end of the year, and this is where they fell.
Unfortunately for the Bayou Bengals, neither this weekend nor this hypothetical scenario ends well. Yes, Jayden Daniels and Co. are scorching-hot with back-to-back annihilations of Florida and Ole Miss, but Alabama got things straight defensively against Mississippi State.
The Crimson Tide aren't as dominant as in years past, but with Bryce Young making and extending plays, it's hard to envision a scenario where this veteran-led Tide didn't come out victorious, even if it is a close one.
Projection: Alabama 31, LSU 27
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
First Round Game 4: No. 9 USC Trojans (9) at No. 8 Oregon Ducks (8)
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There is a lot of exciting football to go in a fun year for the Pac-12, but one thing the wild-and-crazy action out West won't give us is a battle between Oregon and USC.
Well, unless that is, the Ducks and Trojans meet in the conference championship game, which is something that absolutely could happen. Coach Lincoln Riley's team needs Utah to lose again because the Utes beat them head-to-head and hold the tiebreaker. At this point, the Trojans need to win out.
The Ducks just need to keep on winning.
In this scenario, though, the two powerhouses from the West currently ranked in the CFP top 10 would go head-to-head in a grudge match.
Can't you just see Oregon quarterback Bo Nix running around, extending plays, throwing up answered prayers and lighting up the scoreboard? Then Caleb Williams comes out on the field and does the same thing?
There wouldn't be a whole lot of offense in this game, and the two new coaching faces in the conference (Riley and Oregon's Dan Lanning) would continue to prove their mettle in an all-time classic that will be remembered in conference history.
Oregon is playing far too well right now to get beat, though. The Ducks would get the ball last, score at the end and advance to the quarterfinals.
Projection: Oregon 44, USC 41
Quarterfinal 1: No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (3) vs. No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs (7)
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Moving into the quarterfinals, we finally get a look at the four teams that received byes based on the playoff criteria determined by the NCAA when it elected to expand.
That doesn't necessarily mean it's the four best teams, though, as this showdown will show us.
As mentioned before, Georgia is the defending champion, and it feels slighted by the No. 5 seed. This isn't great news for a TCU Horned Frogs team that is one of two Cinderella darlings of the season so far and sporting a spotless slate.
Regardless of all the positive vibes, though, there are a lot of smoke and mirrors here. Coach Sonny Dykes has an explosive offense, but there are too many defensive holes to get away with mistakes against the Dawgs.
Georgia, too, isn't flawless defensively like it was a season ago, but the offense is stout, Stetson Bennett makes plenty of plays, and while the Bulldogs don't "wow" you with a lot of pizzazz, they're sneaky-strong on that side of the ball.
The offensive line is too good, there are talented running backs and the tight end duo of Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington are weapons the Frogs aren't used to seeing. The TCU will keep it in the game for a while, but UGA ultimately will prevail.
You can't fall behind and beat the Dawgs, and comebacks have been the Frogs' M-O. Not this time.
Prediction: Georgia 40, TCU 28
Quarterfinal 2: No. 3 Clemson Tigers (4) vs. No. 6 Michigan Wolverines (5)
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Continuing our trend of "just because they're ranked ahead doesn't mean they're the better team," perhaps the biggest stunner of the unveiling Tuesday night was just how high the Clemson Tigers were ranked.
This is a team that was fortunate to beat Syracuse, looked perhaps its best in a win over pre-Devin Leary injury North Carolina State and really hasn't played anybody else.
Think there's not a little bit of recency bias going on, especially considering the offensive struggles coach Dabo Swinney's team has endured this year?
Regardless, the Tigers are going to have opportunities to prove they belonged over a TCU team that has beaten four ranked foes and a Michigan team that looks like one of the most complete teams in the nation.
In this hypothetical showdown, the Wolverines are out to prove they deserved that bye, and they are going to flex their defensive brawn against DJ Uiagalelei and the Tigers. While Will Shipley is a quality back, he can't do it all himself.
This game has the trappings of a good, old-fashioned donnybrook where power running and strong defenses are the story of the day. In the end, though, I trust J.J. McCarthy to make more plays with his arm and feet than Uiagalelei.
Michigan continues to prove its worth, and after winning this one, it won't be slighted anymore.
Projection: Michigan 26, Clemson 17
Quarterfinal 3: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (2) vs. No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide (6)
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Two of college football's biggest blue bloods battling in the quarterfinal of our 12-team playoff would provide the biggest stage of the tournament so far.
But it wouldn't be even close to the biggest one to come.
Even so, the Crimson Tide and Buckeyes are no strangers to epic showdowns at monumental moments. In the first-ever College Football Playoff back on January 1, 2015, Urban Meyer's Buckeyes stunned Alabama 42-35 and went on to win the national title.
Alabama exacted plenty of revenge in winning its fourth out of five matchups with Ohio State in the two programs' storied history in the 2021 national championship game as the high-flying Tide offense capped one of the best seasons ever with a 52-24 annihilation to win the 2020 national championship.
The stakes aren't quite so high in this one, but the game is going to be much more competitive, like the one back in '15.
Last year's top two Heisman Trophy contenders will finally go head-to-head as Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud exchange darts. While most people would probably pick the Tide and they almost certainly would be favored, the Buckeyes pull off an upset here.
Jim Knowles' defense will make a big play late, and Ohio State will advance with the type of win that will resonate for a while. This one plays out a lot like Tennessee-Alabama.
Projection: Ohio State 45, Alabama 41
Quarterfinal 4: No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers (1) vs. No. 8 Oregon Ducks (8)
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What Tennessee has accomplished this season has been nothing short of remarkable, going from the Rocky Top of the world from rock-bottom just a couple of seasons ago.
Disgraced former head coach Jeremy Pruitt was fired with cause, leaving muddy NCAA waters in his wake, along with a mass exodus of Volunteers to the transfer portal.
Enter Josh Heupel, transfer quarterback Hendon Hooker, and all they've done is go undefeated and earn a No. 1 ranking in a little more than a season.
If you think this team is running out of pixie dust, you haven't been watching. They score at will no matter who they play, and as they get healthier on defense, they are improving tremendously on that side of the ball, too. Last weekend, they shut down future high-round draft pick Will Levis and Kentucky, holding them to six points.
The Vols are legit, and Oregon is going to find that out first-hand in this hypothetical scenario.
Listen: The Ducks are much, much better than a season-opening blowout loss to Georgia suggests, but while they have plenty of offensive weapons, they can't post points like Tennessee. The Vols prove they have too much firepower and roll into the semis.
Hooker, Hyatt and Co. go off, and Tennessee forces Bo Nix back into the turnovers that marred his career at Auburn.
Projection: Tennessee 41, Oregon 30
Semifinal 1: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (2) vs. No. 6 Michigan Wolverines (5)
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Can you imagine The Game in a scenario like this?
College Football Playoff semifinal. A trip to the national championship game is on the line. Two teams who hate each other with all the storied pageantry in what would easily be the biggest game with the biggest stakes ever between the two programs?
This is the type of blessing an expanded playoff can give us. It would be epic, and just envisioning it happening, there wouldn't be a stadium in the country big enough to hold the crowd that would watch.
Everybody would tune in on TV, too, no matter if you loved or hated either or neither team.
While Michigan has a lot of quality traits and is the better defensive football team—a quality that can't be overstated—there hasn't been a team yet this year that stopped C.J. Stroud, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka.
By the time this game comes around, Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be more than just a deployed decoy, too.
So, while the Wolverines have a lot of defensive prowess, the better rushing attack and plenty of offensive weapons in their own rights, it's hard to see them hanging with the Buckeyes point-for-point at full-strength.
Of course, it was hard to see that a year ago, and Michigan won going away, 42-27. That won't happen in this one.
Projection: Ohio State 38, Michigan 34
Semifinal 2: No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers (1) vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (3)
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Just think: You believed Alabama-Ohio State in the quarterfinals was going to be the most buzz-worthy game in our playoffs.
Not even close.
The Game II in the previous slide would be an epic masterpiece of a showdown, but coming in closely behind would be yet another rematch of a regular-season tilt between two long-time SEC East rivals who hate each other fervently.
The Vols and Bulldogs have been going toe-to-toe for a long time, but while UGA has enjoyed bragging rights while Tennessee endured its decade-plus of distress, the Vols are back, and they aren't going to go down easily.
Last year belonged to Georgia, but 2022 is the Year of the Big Orange. This game isn't going to go how you think, and don't be surprised if this weekend's real-world grudge-match between the Vols and Dawgs has some shockers, as well.
Everybody would be expecting a high-flying scoring attack in a back-and-forth game with a trip to the championship game on the line. When that is predicted, what often happens? The defenses show up and make more plays than you expected they would.
Even with all that, Hendon Hooker seems like he isn't going to be denied this year. He's poised, focused and he isn't going to be satisfied until he helps Josh Heupel bring Tennessee all the way back.
Vols win in a game with fewer points than expected.
Projection: Tennessee 30, Georgia 27
Championship: No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers (1) vs. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (2)
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The name of the game in today's college football world is offense. If you score points, you win games, and those who do it better than anybody else are at the top of the sport's mountaintop and the College Football Playoff rankings.
The committee got it right.
Tennessee's barrage of weapons and up-tempo offensive assault is the talk of college football, and the Vols lead the sport in scoring offense and total offense heading into this weekend's matchup in Athens with Georgia.
The Buckeyes are second nationally in scoring offense and sixth in total offense, so if these two teams met in a hypothetical national championship game, it would be an absolute blast for everybody involved. I'm not sure either defense could stop the other.
Just roll the ball out there, and whoever has it last wins.
You've got arguably the nation's top two Heisman Trophy candidates in last year's runner-up C.J. Stroud and this year's current favorite Hendon Hooker. You've got the two best stable of pass-catchers in the nation, featuring guys like Jalin Hyatt, Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Bru McCoy.
The receiving stars, UT's Cedric Tillman and OSU's Jaxon Smith-Njigba, are back and healthy for this one, too.
All the stars have fallen from the sky and are present and accounted for on the football field. But it's Josh Heupel's ability to steal points at the end of the first half and double up with a third quarter-opening onslaught that has catapulted Tennessee to wins all year, and it happens again this year.
Projection: Tennessee 48, Ohio State 45
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
