Phillies' Historic Home Run Outburst in Game 3 a Reminder the Long Ball is Still King
One day after rain rendered conditions unplayable at Citizens Bank Park, the only thing it was raining in Game 3 of the World Series was home runs.
As all five of them came courtesy of the home team, it was simultaneously with style and very much by the modern book that the Philadelphia Phillies took a 2-1 series lead over the Houston Astros in Tuesday's game.
Whereas the first two games of this year's Fall Classic were tense affairs at Minute Maid Park, the third saw the Phillies quickly bury the Astros en route to a 7-0 victory. The long balls came early and often, starting with Bryce Harper's two-run rocket off Lance McCullers Jr. in the first inning.
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After that, it was Alec Bohm's and Brandon Marsh's turns via solo shots in the second inning. In the fifth, Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins got in on the fun with two-run and solo blasts, respectively.
Thus, the Phillies became the fourth team to hit five home runs in a World Series game. Bully for them and, well, not bully for McCullers. Since all five were charged to him, he became the first pitcher to surrender that many long balls in a playoff series, World or otherwise.
The Phillies Showed Why Home Runs Rule October
In the postseason, as in the regular season, the only surefire way for a team to win a game is to score more runs than the other team. It's baseball. Those are the rules.
In recent years, however, few other things have determined a team's success in October like the long ball.
Teams that won the home run battle within a postseason game also won the game itself 59.3 percent of the time between 2012 and 2021. The effect was only more pronounced in the 2021 playoffs, as teams that won the home run battle went 25-2.
It has been no great surprise, then, to see MLB.com's Sarah Langs' daily updates confirm that the long ball is still king in the 2022 playoffs:
It hasn't become impossible to carry out a more long-form offensive attack. The Phillies themselves know this to be true, as they were victorious in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series and Game 1 of the National League Division Series, even though they failed to go deep in both of them.
For the most part, though, it's because of the long ball that the Phillies are now just two wins shy of their first World Series championship since 2008. The five they hit on Tuesday gives them 22 for the playoffs, and it's hard to imagine a more illustrative example of why home runs have so thoroughly taken over the playoffs.
It's not just that the Phillies didn't get a hit with a runner in scoring position. It's also that, even though the final score might lead one to surmise otherwise, they got only three opportunities to do so. And the Astros? Same story.
Call it a microcosm of just how hard it is to get 'em on in Major League Baseball's modern playoff environment, much less get 'em over and get 'em in. Since 2012, on-base percentage has consistently taken a dive from the regular season to the postseason:
One can point to any number of explanations for what's causing this. For one, pitchers are just plain nasty. For two, every manager has a deep bullpen and is willing to use it. And for three, yes, swinging for the fences is just what modern hitters do.
As the Phillies showed in Game 3, however, actually hitting the ball over the fence can require more tact than simply trying to combine brute force with just the right launch angle.
"That's between us," said Bohm (h/t Rob Friedman) of the viral moment in which Harper said something into his ear just before he hit his home run. But with that and each successive bomb off McCullers, it only became clear that the Phillies had something on the 29-year-old hurler.
If he wasn't tipping his pitches—and McCullers maintains that he wasn't—he might simply have had too obvious of a game plan. He certainly stuck with the theme of his season in shying away from his fastball, especially against left-handed batters in the playoffs.
In a bygone era, the Phillies might have taken whatever information they had and used it to try to secure McCullers' demise through a thousand cuts. But in this era, trying for deeper, more damaging cuts was certainly the logical course of action.
The Astros Are in Trouble. Again.
Save for the fact that Ryne Stanek and José Urquidy, the latter of whom was pitching for the first time since Oct. 3, combined for 3.2 scoreless innings in relief of McCullers, there just aren't any positives for the Astros to take away from Game 3.
So, the best thing they can do is turn the page.
If they must have some kind of extra motivation ahead of Game 4 on Wednesday, they can remember that the spot they're in now isn't all that dissimilar to the one they were in after the first three games of last year's American League Championship Series.
In that one, the Astros trailed 2-1 to the Boston Red Sox following blowout losses in Games 2 and 3. Those were the two games in which the Red Sox hit three grand slams, with the last being Schwarber's amid a six-run second inning that paced a 12-3 blowout at Fenway Park.
The Astros didn't just climb out of this hole. They rocketed out of it, outscoring the Red Sox 23-3 to win the next three games and punch their ticket to the World Series.
Yet for the Astros to enjoy a similar uprising against the Phillies, they're going to need to get their big bats going.
None of their guys can be fairly called "hot" right now, but Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez least of all. The former's latest 0-fer has him at 7-for-45 for the postseason, while the latter is now 4-for-32 since homering in each of Houston's first two playoff contests.
If anything, Houston's pitching outlook for the remainder of the series only heightens the pressure on the offense to break out.
With Cristian Javier set for Game 4 and Justin Verlander to follow in Game 5 on Thursday, Framber Valdez would be the presumptive starter for Houston if the series goes to a Game 6 on Saturday. Should a Game 7 materialize on Sunday, manager Dusty Baker will have a hard decision to make.
He'd have the option of starting McCullers on regular rest, but that seems like a dangerous proposition after what happened on Tuesday. He could otherwise bring Javier back on three days' rest, though that would be uncharted territory for the 25-year-old.
In any case, the Phillies are in better shape with Ranger Suárez lined up for a potential Game 7. Since his rough playoff debut in Game 1 of the NLDS, the sinker-balling lefty has allowed just one earned run on six hits and one walk over 11.1 innings in two starts and two relief appearances.
What's Next for the Astros and Phillies?
The World Series will continue with Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET.
On the mound for the Astros will be Javier, whose lone playoff start in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series yielded 5.1 scoreless innings. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phillies. He's surrendered 11 runs in his last two starts, but he'll at least be on regular rest.
Game 5 will be on Thursday. If necessary, Games 6 and 7 will be in Houston on Saturday and Sunday.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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