MLB Playoff Picture 2022: Early Storylines for Phillies vs. Astros World Series
The Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros used two different dominant forms of baseball to advance to the 2022 World Series.
The Phillies slugged their way through the San Diego Padres pitching staff. They scored 25 runs and hit 10 home runs in five games in the NLCS.
Houston only scored 18 runs in its ALCS sweep of the New York Yankees, but that total was plenty to advance because of the Yankees' impotent offense.
Runs are expected to come at a premium in the first two games of the Fall Classic because of the dominant pitchers on each side. Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez will go for Houston, while Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola will throw for Philadelphia.
Houston holds the edge in pitching depth, but Philadelphia was able to cancel out San Diego's arms in the NLCS with its power hitting.
The Astros will likely win the World Series through pitching, while the Phillies' path to victory likely includes them outslugging the American League champion.
Houston's Pitching in Excellent Form
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The Astros held the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees to three runs or fewer in five of their seven playoff games.
Houston opened the postseason with a seven-run concession to the Mariners in which Justin Verlander did not make it into the fifth inning. Yordan Alvarez rescued that game with a three-run walk-off home run.
The Astros absorbed a five-run output from the Yankees in ALCS Game 4 by producing six runs of their own to clinch on the same day as the Phillies.
Verlander and Co. produced 89 strikeouts and 21 walks in their seven postseason games. A majority of the runs allowed came off the starters.
Houston's bullpen did not concede an earned run against Seattle, and it conceded twice against New York.
The easiest path to victory for the AL champion is for the starters to go five or six innings and then allow the top bullpen arms to take over.
If the Astros follow that path, they should earn their second World Series title in four tries since 2017, but that is easier said than done against Philadelphia's lineup.
Philadelphia's Bats Enter On Fire
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The World Series matchup feels like a strength-versus-strength battle because of how well the Phillies swung their bats in the NLCS.
Philadelphia cranked 10 home runs out of the yard over five NLCS games, with the highlight being Bryce Harper's game-winning home in Game 5.
Harper, Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Schwarber combined for nine of the team's 10 home runs. J.T. Realmuto hit the other one.
The power bats in the Phillies lineup could tear through Houston's pitching and create an edge before they get back to Citizens Bank Ballpark for Game 3.
Schwarber could be the key to Philadelphia's lineup unlocking its potential in a new series. Not only is he the leadoff hitter, but he also has World Series experience from his time with the Chicago Cubs.
Schwarber had seven hits in five appearances against Cleveland in 2016, and he could use his experience to help other members of the Philadelphia order ease into the series.
Any bit of experience helps for the Phillies, who are going up against a team that has been to the Fall Classic four times since 2017.
Will Jose Altuve's Bat Wake Up?
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Houston cruised through the American League bracket without Jose Altuve contributing much at the plate.
Altuve recorded one hit in ALDS Game 1 and then did not hit again until a two-hit outing in ALCS Game 4.
The Houston second baseman went on an 0-for-24 spell from the start of ALDS Game 2 to ALCS Game 3.
Houston needs its offensive catalyst to bank off the momentum gained from the two-hit outing in his last game. Altuve reaching base could wreak havoc on the pitching rhythm of Philadelphia's hurlers.
Altuve had a pair of multi-hit games and six total hits in the 2021 World Series defeat to the Atlanta Braves. He had three multi-hit performances in 2019 against the Washington Nationals and produced one three-hit game in 2017 versus the Los Angeles Dodgers.
An in-form Altuve could spring a few early rallies for Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and others to pile on the Phillies pitching and make them use their bullpen arms early and often in the series.
Altuve could even be a difference-maker in one-run games if he reaches base, then steals a bag and his teammates manufacture a run to knock him in.
Regardless of how each game plays out, the Astros need Altuve to hit better than the previous two series to deal with the threat posed by Philadelphia.
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Can Philadelphia's Pitching Depth Hold Up?
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Philadelphia enters with a disadvantage in pitching because of its lack of premier starters after Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
The Phillies will turn to Ranger Suárez in Game 3 and then some combination of Bailey Falter and Noah Syndergaard in a bullpen game in Game 4.
Rob Thomson needs his pitching depth to shine at home in order to neutralize Houston's rotation strength. The Astros should send Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier to the bump after Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez.
Suárez only allowed two earned runs in his two postseason starts. He was much better in his second start, as he gave up two hits in five innings in NLCS Game 3. He finished off the NLCS with two outs in the ninth inning.
Falter struggled in NLCS Game 4, which was his first appearance in three weeks. He did not make it out of the first inning and he may not see the mound in the World Series because of that.
Syndergaard allowed one earned run on three hits in 5.1 innings this postseason. He could start Game 4 and then allow some of the Phillies' long relievers to bridge the gap to Seranthony Dominguez and José Alvarado.
Philadelphia could use strong starts out of Wheeler, Nola and Suárez so that it can save arms for an all-hands-on-deck in approach in Game 4 and then later in the series when the margins become tighter.
The Phillies passed the first two tests of their pitching depth, and if the entire unit throws well again, they could finish off their postseason run with a trophy.
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