Yankees' Worst Nightmare Is Coming True as Astros Sweep Looms
The New York Yankees had a golden opportunity for a reset on Saturday. Back home at Yankee Stadium for Game 3 of the American League Championship Series with their best pitcher on the mound? What could possibly go wrong?
Only everything.
The Houston Astros are now firmly in the driver's seat—not to mention on the doorstep of the World Series—with a 3-0 lead in the ALCS after their 5-0 win in Game 3. They permitted the Yankees just three hits while putting up crooked numbers in two separate innings, starting with Chas McCormick's Yankee Stadium Special of a two-run home run in the second.
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The Yankees were able to get multiple runners on base only twice all game, and only one of those instances was a true threat. By the time Matt Carpenter and Harrison Bader recorded back-to-back singles with two outs in the ninth, it was already too late.
In the end, the Yankees were shut out at home for only the 16th time in their postseason history—and only for the fourth time on three or fewer hits.
The Yankees know as well as anyone just how much trouble they're in being down 3-0. They were, after all, on the losing end of the only 3-0 comeback in Major League Baseball history in 2004. Otherwise, every one of the other 39 attempts has failed.
The Yankees' Painfully Specific Brand of Non-Competitive Baseball
There's no blaming Gerrit Cole for the Yankees' predicament.
As Jameson Taillon and Luis Severino had done in Games 1 and 2, Cole provided the Yankees with a solid start. In five innings, the $324 million ace allowed three runs on five hits and two walks with seven strikeouts. He had a darn good slider going throughout.
Cole was let down, in part, by his defense, specifically on a play in the second inning where Harrison Bader dropped a fly ball after nearly colliding with Aaron Judge. McCormick's home run came just three pitches later.
There is, of course, that other reason the Yankees lost Game 3. And it's the same one that explains why they're on the verge of getting swept by the same team that needed seven and six games, respectively, to beat them in the ALCS in 2017 and 2019.
They're. Just. Not. Hitting.
Following Saturday's three-hit dud, the Yankees are now batting a collective .128 in the series and .161 for the playoffs as a whole. The latter is the worst ever for a team that played at least eight games in a single postseason.
It hasn't helped that Judge has gone ice-cold in the batter's box, otherwise known as the same place from where he hit an AL-record 62 home runs during the regular season. Albeit with a pair of home runs, he's just 5-for-32 with 14 strikeouts since the postseason began.
Hence the boo birds being out for Judge once again on Saturday:
Yet the Yankees need not search far and wide for evidence that it is possible to win in the playoffs even as one star hitter goes cold. The Astros are a perfect 6-0 even though Jose Altuve, who beat out Judge for the AL MVP in 2017, is just 1-for-28.
Whether it's Giancarlo Stanton (5-for-28), Gleyber Torres (4-for-30), Josh Donaldson (5-for-25) or Matt Carpenter (1-for-11), Judge simply hasn't gotten as much help from his supporting cast as Altuve has from his.
To boot, everyone has the same problem right now: the strikeout. The Yankees have struck out in 33.6 percent of their plate appearances, which is also an all-time worst among clubs that played eight least eight games in a given postseason.
"We've got to find a way right now" is a phrase that Yankees manager Aaron Boone used multiple times in his postgame press conference. With that, there is no arguing.
Because if they don't, a season that was once on track to be one of the greatest in the Yankees' history is going to finally end in one of their greatest embarrassments.
It Seems the Astros Are Simply Better Than the Yankees
Before the Astros and Yankees renewed their rivalry for the first time in 2022, this is where they stood back on June 23:
- Yankees: 51-18
- Astros: 43-25, 7.5 GB
Even though the Yankees actually took that first meeting, here's how things unfolded the rest of the way:
- Astros: 63-31
- Yankees: 48-45, 14.5 GB
As highlighted by the 5-1 record that they posted in the two clubs' last six head-to-head meetings, the Astros have thus been a substantially better team than the Yankees for a while. And precisely how they've been better has never been more obvious than it is right now.
Put simply, they're just better at keeping runs off the board.
Whereas the Astros scored 11 fewer runs than the Yankees after June 23, they also allowed 74 fewer runs. That was a group effort, as not a single one of the 16 hurlers who pitched at least 20 innings for Houston down the stretch posted a negative WAR.
Saturday's game was perhaps the ultimate testament to the depth of Houston's pitching. With Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez having pitched in the first two games and Lance McCullers Jr. needing an extra day to deal from a fluke elbow injury, the Astros turned to their No. 4 starter in Cristian Javier. They also didn't use their best reliever in closer Ryan Pressly.
And yet, they still twirled a three-hit shutout. And a dominant one at that, as they racked up 11 strikeouts and permitted only five batted balls that traveled so far as 200 feet.
Following a likewise impressive display of pitching against the Seattle Mariners in the Division Series, the Astros now have a 1.57 ERA for the postseason. With the minimum set at six games, that's the best any team has done since the wild-card era in 1995.
The only fly in the ointment that's thus far produced Houston's perfect postseason record is that the club's offense has yet to truly break out. An output of 25 runs in six games isn't exactly record-book material.
Save for Altuve, though, none of the Astros regulars can be described as "cold."
Just about everyone has pitched in something, whether we're talking about Yordan Álvarez, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, and Jeremy Peña each boasting multiple home runs or Christian Vázquez finally getting a start in Game 3 and coming through with a huge two-run single.
This is how the Astros have been a buzzsaw even as they've been firing on less than all cylinders. And with one more win, they'll have buzzed their way to the World Series for the fourth time in the last six years.
What's Next for the Astros and Yankees
Game 4 of the ALCS is set for Sunday, with McCullers on the hill for the Astros opposite Nestor Cortes for the Yankees. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET.
McCullers was excellent in Game 3 of the ALDS, holding the Mariners scoreless on two hits and two walks in six innings. Cortes allowed just three runs over 10 innings in the two starts he made against the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS, the second of which came on short rest in the decisive fifth game of the series.
If the Yankees win, Game 5 will be on Monday. If the Astros win, the series is over.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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