Gauging the Yankees' Panic Meter After Digging 2-0 Hole vs. Astros in ALCS

If the history of best-of-seven series in Major League Baseball's postseason is any indication, there's now just a 16 percent chance of the New York Yankees returning to the World Series for the first time since 2009.

Time to panic? We'll get to that.

What's undeniably true right now is that the Yankees are reeling from back-to-back losses to the Houston Astros to begin the American League Championship Series. After Justin Verlander pitched Houston to a 4-2 victory in Game 1 on Wednesday, Alex Bregman played the hero by way of a three-run home run that paced a 3-2 win in Game 2 on Thursday:

For its part, a Yankees offense that led the American League in scoring and home runs in the regular season simply couldn't get to Framber Valdez. The only two runs the left-hander gave up in seven innings were unearned, and he ended up with the third-most swings and misses ever recorded in a playoff game.

Once Ryan Pressly got Matt Carpenter on a check swing to strike out the side and end the game, the Astros had secured their fifth straight win to begin the postseason. Per MLB.com's Sarah Langs, that's tied for the sixth-longest streak in the league's wild-card era.

So, just how doomed are the Yankees?

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Why the Panic Meter Is High

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Short answer? It's the offense, stupid.

Though they were ultimately victorious, the Yankees weren't racking up hits and runs on the Cleveland Guardians in the American League Division Series. They mustered 20 runs in five games, with a .182 average that ranks among the worst ever for a team that won a best-of-five series.

Two games into the ALCS, things have improbably gotten worse. The Yankees only have four runs, as well as just nine hits and—[double-checks notes]—holy smokes, that really does say 30 strikeouts.

The Yankees are now batting just .169 for the playoffs. That's bad. Bad as in second-worst all-time to the 2017 Chicago Cubs among clubs that played at least seven games in a postseason.

For the most part, it's been a perfect storm of good pitching and bad hitting. To the former, it's just plain hard for hitters to do damage when they're up against stuff like this:

To the latter, the Yankees are swinging at air too often. Their collective strikeout rate ranks as the highest all-time among teams with so many as five games played in a given postseason:

1. 2022 New York Yankees: 33.7 percent
2. 2019 Los Angeles Dodgers: 32.8 percent
3. 2017 Cleveland Guardians: 32.6 percent

Though Verlander and Valdez may indeed be out of the way for now, the Yankees still face tough challenges in Games 3 and 4.

Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. are lined up to take the ball to start things for Houston. Javier had a 13-strikeout game against New York back on June 25, while McCullers pitched to a 2.27 ERA in eight regular-season outings before hurling six shutout frames in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Seattle Mariners. Although it is worth mentioning that McCullers Jr. was bumped back from Game 3 to Game 4 due to getting hit on the elbow by a champagne bottle during the celebration after defeating the Mariners.

Factoring in just how much Houston's bullpen has lived up to its MLB-best 2.80 ERA so far in these playoffs—how about a 0.71 ERA?—it's hard to view the outlook of the Yankees offense as anything other than grim.

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Why the Panic Meter Is Low

AP Photo/Kevin M. Cox

Well, for starters, Game 2 is one that the Yankees could have won.

The 97 mph fastball that Bregman hit out wasn't even a bad pitch by Luis Severino, nor was the resulting long ball a crush job. Per Statcast, it left the bat at a modest 91.8 mph and had just a 4 percent chance of becoming a hit.

Compare that to this one that Aaron Judge, he of the American League record 62 home runs, just missed with a runner on in the eighth inning:

That was 106.3 mph off the bat with a 91 percent chance of going for a hit. As manager Aaron Boone opined, it might have reached the seats if the roof hadn't been open at Minute Maid Park.

To quote Severino: "I threw a great pitch. He hit it at 91 mph. That's the only thing I'm gonna say and Judge hit it at 106 mph and it didn't go out. I don't know, they got lucky."

In addition to a feeling that they got screwed, the Yankees can also walk away from Houston feeling proud about the aspects of the game where they did play well.

Above all, with regard to their run prevention. Severino and Jameson Taillon both pitched well in their starting assignments, and a defense that led MLB in defensive runs saved this season was on point.

Certainly, never more so than on this double play in Game 2 (second highlight in the clip below):

The bullpen also had a good game on Thursday, as Jonathan Loáisiga and Wandy Peralta allowed just three hits and a walk in 2.2 innings of relief for Severino. All-Star closer Clay Holmes, meanwhile, has gotten a much-needed rest since he last appeared on Tuesday.

Further reasons for optimism on the pitching side include Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes, who are slated to start Games 3 and 4. McCullers and Javier are talented, sure, but they're up against two hurlers who had a combined 3.03 ERA in the regular season and have thus far pitched to a 2.34 ERA through four starts in the playoffs.

Last but not least, even Dorothy doesn't value home as much as the Yankees have in 2022. Whereas they went just 42-39 on the road, their 57-24 record at Yankee Stadium tied for the best home record in the league.

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Let's Put the Panic Meter at...

How about a nice, solid 7 out of 10?

Let's go back to how history just isn't on the Yankees' side. Of the 88 teams that have ever fallen into a 2-0 hole in a best-of-seven series, only 14 have ever come back to emerge victorious.

And while it's all well and good that the Yankees have played the Astros tough in this series, that it's nonetheless been in losing efforts qualifies as more of the same.

Mind you, not just to the extent that Houston also beat New York in the ALCS in 2017 and 2019. The Astros went 5-2 against the Yankees in the regular season this year, with both losses coming in games they led going into the late innings on June 23 and 26.

Between that and how things are looking so far in this latest grudge between these two rivals, it sure looks like one of them is simply better than the other.

Game 3 will be at Yankee Stadium on Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 5:07 p.m. ET.

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Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.