Way-Too-Early Predictions for 2023 NHL Free Agency
On Sept. 16, The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun reported the NHL's annual free-agent market will open on July 1 for the first time since 2019. With the 2022-23 season now underway, this is a good opportunity to list the best players eligible for unrestricted free-agent status next July and predict where they might end up.
If it seems premature for this type of list, bear in mind that the number of potentially available stars could shrink between now and July 1.
Since September, two big names came off the board, with J.T. Miller signing a contract extension with the Vancouver Canucks and Nathan MacKinnon following suit with the Colorado Avalanche.
A number of notable stars could be obtainable when the market opens. They include forwards such as the Chicago Blackhawks Patrick Kane and the Boston Bruins' David Pastrnak, defensemen like the Minnesota Wild's Matt Dumba, and goaltenders such as the Carolina Hurricanes' Frederik Andersen.
Here's our look at next summer's 10 notable UFAs and whether they'll re-sign with their current clubs or ink new deals elsewhere. Feel free to let us know what you think of this listing in the comments section below.
Frederik Andersen, Carolina Hurricanes
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After five seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Frederik Andersen joined the Carolina Hurricanes on a two-year contract in July 2021. He went on to enjoy one of his best seasons, finishing among the top seven for starting goaltenders with a 2.17 goals-against average, a .922 save percentage, 35 wins and four shutouts.
Andersen's $4.5 million annual salary-cap hit has proven to be a bargain for the Hurricanes. If the 33-year-old Danish netminder matches last season's stats in 2022-23, he will be worth a lot more if he reaches the open market.
The Hurricanes were among last season's top teams in part due to Andersen's goaltending. A late-season knee injury sidelined him during the 2022 playoffs, contributing to the Hurricanes' elimination from the second round by the New York Rangers.
With $29.1 million in projected cap space for 2023-24, the Hurricanes have the room to pay Andersen a raise on his next contract, so long as he maintains his strong performance.
Prediction
The Hurricanes don't have anyone in their system to step up and provide them with the same level of goaltending as Andersen does. With their best goalie potentially available in the UFA market, they could push to sign him to a contract extension. Given his age, it could be a three-year deal worth around $6.5 million per year.
Matt Dumba, Minnesota Wild
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The subject of trade rumors for the past two seasons, Matt Dumba is in the final season of his five-year, $30 million contract. The 28-year-old is a solid two-way defenseman and could become one of the top players potentially available in next summer's free-agent market.
Dumba's physical style and offensive skills should also draw plenty of attention if the Minnesota Wild decide to shop him before the March 3 trade deadline. Given their limited salary-cap space for 2023-24, it's possible general manager Bill Guerin will peddle him rather than lose him for nothing to free agency.
Even if Guerin doesn't move Dumba at the trade deadline, the Wild will find it difficult to retain him. They have a projected $15.5 million in cap space next season with restricted free agents such as Matt Boldy, Tyson Jost and Calen Addison to re-sign.
After securing an average annual value of $6 million on his last contract, Dumba could seek a long-term deal worth around $8.5 million per season. Playoff contenders or emerging clubs with lots of cap space in need of a top-two right-side defenseman, such as the New Jersey Devils, could come calling next summer.
Prediction
Dumba inks a seven-year contract with the Devils, who could lose defenseman Damon Severson to free agency. With a projected $35.8 million in cap space for 2023-24, they have room to sign Dumba and still have enough to re-sign key players such as Jesper Bratt. He could become a key part of their roster core as they develop into a perennial playoff club.
Bo Horvat, Vancouver Canucks
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One of the notable names came off next summer's UFA list when J.T. Miller re-signed with the Vancouver Canucks. With their first-line center in tow, the Canucks' focus should turn toward talented two-way forward Bo Horvat.
The 27-yard-old center has spent the entirety of his nine-year career in Vancouver and has been the captain since 2019. He has been well worth the six-year, $33 million contract he signed in 2017, reaching or exceeding 20 goals four times and 52 points three times during that time.
On Sept. 17, Canucks general manager Patrik Allvin told Sportsnet's Iain MacIntyre that Horvat wants to stay in Vancouver. However, Allvin acknowledged contract talks can take time.
With over $15 million committed to Miller and Elias Pettersson in 2023-24, the Canucks already have a lot of money invested in the center position. The franchise also already has $71.8 million invested in 17 players for 2023-24, which could make it challenging to keep Horvat in the fold should it cost between $7 million and $8 million annually.
Prediction
It could take time for the Canucks and Horvat to reach an agreement. Perhaps it goes right up to July 1. Like Miller, however, they'll get a deal done for $7 million per season for eight years, though that could force management to consider shedding some contracts to maintain some salary cap flexibility.
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Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks
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Patrick Kane, one of the greatest players in Chicago Blackhawks history, is in the final season of his eight-year, $84 million contract.
With the franchise's glory years behind it and management engaged in a roster rebuild, speculation over the 33-year-old winger's future has made him a fixture in the NHL rumor mill.
Entering his 16th NHL season (all of them with the Blackhawks), Kane remains among the league's elite forwards. He led his club in scoring last season with 92 points, finishing 15th among the top overall scorers.
The nine-time All-Star and winner of several individual awards, including the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2013 as playoff MVP, helped the Blackhawks win three Stanley Cups between 2010 and 2015. He's also a proven postseason scorer with 52 goals and 132 points in 136 playoff contests, including 11 game-winning goals
Kane's offensive skills and playoff experience will make him an enticing target for clubs with Stanley Cup aspirations. Given his age, he might have to accept a pay cut on a short-term contract but could still get a lucrative new contract via next summer's free-agent market.
Prediction
Kane signs with the Detroit Red Wings if they've emerged as a playoff contender this season. They possess $40.5 million in projected salary cap space for 2023-24, more than enough to sign him to a three-year contract worth $8.5 million annually. His experience and leadership could accelerate their development into a Cup contender.
John Klingberg, Anaheim Ducks
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John Klingberg was among the notable names available when the 2022 free-agent market opened in July. The 30-year-old defenseman sought a more lucrative contract than the seven-year deal worth $4.3 million annually that he had earned with the Dallas Stars.
Unable to find a suitable long-term contract, Klingberg signed a one-year, $7 million deal in July with the Anaheim Ducks. He'll be eligible to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.
Klingberg had six seasons with 40-plus points in Dallas. A strong performance this season with the rebuilding Ducks could garner a more substantial contract for the puck-moving blueliner next summer.
With $42.8 million in projected cap space for 2023-24, the rebuilding Ducks could be in a strong position to retain Klingberg.
On Sept. 27, The Athletic's Eric Stephens reported the veteran rearguard didn't rule out the possibility of staying in Anaheim beyond this season if he and the club proved to be a good fit.
Prediction
On Aug. 2, Sportsnet's Jeff Marek reported Klingberg rejected an eight-year contract worth $7 million per season from the Stars before the start of free agency. He may have regretted that decision. If Klingberg and the Ducks reach an agreement on a contract extension before July 1, it could be a five-year deal worth $7.5 million annually given his age.
Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings
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Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi are the Detroit Red Wings' notable forwards eligible for unrestricted free agent status next summer. Of the two, it is Larkin whose future with the Wings will draw the most scrutiny.
Larkin has spent his entire NHL career with the Red Wings and was named team captain ahead of the COVID-shortened 2021-22 season. The 27-year-old center has tallied 53-plus points four times in his seven seasons.
With the Wings steadily improving thanks to the addition of promising young talent and experienced veterans, Larkin has an opportunity this season to lead them to their first playoff berth since his rookie season in 2015-16.
Larkin is in the final season of a five-year contract worth an average annual value of $6.1 million. On Sept. 16, he told Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman that his representatives had been discussing an extension with Red Wings management.
Prediction
Larkin wants to stay with his promising club, and Red Wings management appears willing to keep him. It could cost $7.5 million annually on an eight-year deal to keep him in the fold. With $40.5 million in projected cap space in 2023-24, Detroit has sufficient room to re-sign Larkin.
Ryan O'Reilly, St. Louis Blues
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Since joining the St. Louis Blues in a trade from the Buffalo Sabres in 2018, Ryan O'Reilly has played the best hockey of his career.
He took home the Frank J. Selke Trophy in 2018-19 as the best defensive forward and the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP leading the Blues to the Stanley Cup in the spring of 2019.
Awarded the captaincy of the Blues following the departure of Alex Pietrangelo in 2020, the 31-year-old O'Reilly remains their best two-way player. He's tallied at least 54 points in each of the four years he's played in St. Louis.
In 2021-22, he led all Blues forwards in average ice time per game (19:05) and was second in the league in faceoff wins with 900.
O'Reilly is in the final season of a seven-year deal worth an average annual value of $7.5 million. He's indicated that he wants to stay with the Blues beyond 2022-23 but said there's "no real urgency" in getting a deal done.
The case could be made for O'Reilly to receive a seven-year, $49 million deal like the one Nazem Kadri signed this summer with the Calgary Flames. However, on Oct. 4, The Athletic's Jeremy Rutherford doubted the Blues would agree to that.
Prediction
O'Reilly could accept a bit of a pay cut to stay with the Blues on a five-year contract. Rutherford speculated it could be something between $5 million and $6 million.
David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins
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The Boston Bruins struck paydirt in the 2014 NHL draft when they selected David Pastrnak with the 25th overall pick.
He's blossomed into one of the most dangerous scorers in the league, winning the Maurice Richard Trophy with Alex Ovechkin in 2019-20 with 48 goals and netting at least 34 in four other seasons, including a 40-goal effort last season.
In the final season of his six-year contract, Pastrnak is earning an average annual value of $6.7 million. As part of the league's elite scorers, it will cost the Bruins considerably more than that to keep the 26-year-old winger in the fold.
Pastrnak is hoping to sign a contract extension with the Bruins. Teammate Brad Marchand indicated his teammates have been vocal about their wish for the talented goal scorer to be re-signed. On Sept. 29, TSN's Darren Dreger reported contract talks between the winger and Bruins management had "heated up" since the start of training camp.
Several teams could get into the bidding for Pastrnak if he becomes a free agent. However, it's sounding like he and the Bruins could reach an agreement on an extension before then.
Prediction
The Bruins re-sign Pastrnak to an eight-year contract worth an average annual value of $10 million.
Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues
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Vladimir Tarasenko made headlines in the summer of 2021 after reportedly requesting a trade over his unhappiness with the club's handling of his two shoulder surgeries prior to 2020-21.
Although he went on to a career-best 82-point effort last season, Daily Faceoff's Frank Seravalli reported on July 8 that the 30-year-old right winger hadn't rescinded his trade request.
Given Tarasenko's solid performance last season, it appears Blues general manager Doug Armstrong will retain him for another push at the Stanley Cup. However, this season could be the winger's last in St. Louis.
Tarasenko is entering his 11th NHL season, all of them with the Blues. Since 2012-13, he's been their overall scoring leader with 252 goals, 272 assists and 524 points. That includes six seasons with at least 32 goals and 66 points.
Having bounced back last season following a third shoulder operation, Tarasenko's offensive consistency will make him among the top players potentially available in next summer's free-agent market. Another 30-goal, 60-point campaign will ensure him a raise over his current annual average value of $7.5 million.
Prediction
On July 19, NYI Hockey Now's Stefen Rosner pointed out that the New York Islanders reportedly were interested in Tarasenko last summer. Perhaps general manager Lou Lamoriello signs Tarasenko next summer to a five-year deal worth $8.5 million annually. With $72.2 million already invested in next year's payroll, he'll have to free up some cap room to do it.
Jonathan Toews, Chicago Blackhawks
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Like Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews is among the best players in Chicago Blackhawks history. He captained them to three Stanley Cups between 2010-15, winning the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP in 2010 and the Frank J. Selke Trophy in 2013 as the league's top defensive forward.
Toews is also in the final season of an eight-year, $84 million contract, but unlike Kane, the 34-year-old center's best years are behind him. He missed all of 2020-21 battling chronic immune response syndrome and tallied a career-worst 37 points last season.
A bounce-back performance this season could improve Toews' free-agent stock. It could also make him valuable to the Blackhawks as they engage in a roster rebuild.
His experience and leadership would be helpful to the young players currently on their roster and those who will come up through their system within the next three seasons.
Toews entered this season giving no indication of an intent to ask for a trade to a contender before the March 3 trade deadline or test next summer's free-agent market. Despite his recent struggles, his championship pedigree and two-way skills could be attractive to playoff contenders if he becomes a UFA.
Prediction
Toews will opt to join a contender as an unrestricted free agent. The Carolina Hurricanes could sign him to a two-year deal worth $6 million annually if Jesperi Kotkaniemi fails to pan out as a second-line center this season.
Stats via NHL.com, salary info and line combinations (as of Oct. 11, 2022) via Cap Friendly, with additional info via Hockey-Reference.com.
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