2026 NHL Mock Draft: Updated Scouting Report on Potential No. 1 Pick, Gavin McKenna
Questions asked—those valid and otherwise—about whether Gavin McKenna deserved the No. 1 spot in the 2026 NHL draft were largely answered by his second half of the NCAA season.
When his season is taken as a whole, McKenna is clearly the top player available. At the end of the day, he's the only guy in this year's draft with the potential to come in and directly affect the fortunes of whatever franchise is lucky enough to select him.
With the Toronto Maple Leafs winning the 2026 Draft Lottery, that's a tall order. With his pure skill set and his history of embarrassing older and more experienced opponents, McKenna is up to the challenge.
Player: Gavin McKenna
Position: Left wing
Team: Penn State Nittany Lions (NCAA)
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 165 lbs
Points: 51 points (15 goals, 36 assists) in 35 games
McKenna played two full WHL seasons, as well as 16 games before he was eligible to join the WHL full-time (and had 18 points in those 16 games), before crossing the border and the continent to join Penn State University's Nittany Lions men's hockey team. The WHL is a major-junior hockey league that plays 68 games per season. The NCAA is a college hockey league that plays 40 games per season.
NCAA games are more spaced out, where major-junior schedules more closely resemble a professional league (understandable, as NCAA players are student athletes and take classes during the week).
With the move, McKenna found himself playing against not just older players in the NCAA but bigger, more experienced players. He had to adjust not only to a new environment and new teammates but to a completely new style of play and approach to the season.
At the end of the regular season, McKenna finished with 51 points in 35 games, including 15 goals and 36 assists. That was good for 2nd in the league, up from 14th place at the time of our original scouting report in November. McKenna also registered 14 points in 7 games for Canada at this year's World Junior Championships.
Updated 2026 NHL Mock Draft
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1. Toronto Maple Leafs: Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State (NCAA)
2. San Jose Sharks: Chase Reid, D, Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds
3. Vancouver Canucks: Ivar Stenberg, LW/RW, Frolunda HC (SHL)
4. Chicago Blackhawks: Caleb Malhotra, C, Brantford Bulldogs (OHL)
5. New York Rangers: Carson Carels, D, Prince George Cougars (WHL)
6. Calgary Flames: Keaton Verhoeff, D, University of North Dakota (NCAA)
7. Seattle Kraken: Viggo Bjorck, C/RW, Djurgardens IF
8. Winnipeg Jets: Alberts Smits, D, Jukurit (Liiga)
9. Florida Panthers: Tynan Lawrence, C, Boston University (NCAA)
10. Nashville Predators: Daxon Rudolph, D, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL)
11. St. Louis Blues: Ethan Belchetz, LW, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
12. New Jersey Devils: Oscar Hemming, F, Boston College (NCAA)
13. New York Islanders: Adam Novotny, LW/RW, Peterborough Petes (OHL)
14. Columbus Blue Jackets: Ryan Lin, D, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
15. St. Louis Blues (via DET): Oliver Suvanto, C, Tappara (Liiga)
16. Washington Capitals: Nikita Klepov, LW, Saginaw Spirit
17. Los Angeles Kings: Elton Hermansson, RW/LW, MoDo Hockey (Hockey Allsvenskan)
18. Washington Capitals (via ANA): Malte Gustafsson, D, HV71 (SHL)
19. Utah Mammoth: Ilia Morozov, F, Miami University (NCAA)
20. San Jose Sharks (via EDM): Egor Shilov, C, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL)
21. Philadelphia Flyers: Juho Piiparinen, D, Tappara (Liiga)
22. Pittsburgh Penguins: Xavier Villeneuve, D, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)
23. Boston Bruins: JP Hurlbert, C, Kamloops Blazers (WHL)
24. Vancouver Canucks (via MIN): Marcus Nordmark, RW, Djurgardens IF U20 (U20 Nationell)
25. Montreal Canadiens: Wyatt Cullen, LW, USNTDP
26. Seattle Kraken (via TBL): Liam Ruck, RW, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)
27. New York Rangers (via DAL): Mathis Preston, RW, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
28. Calgary Flames (via VGK): Maddox Dagenais, C, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL)
29. Buffalo Sabres: Jack Hextall, C, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL)
30. Carolina Hurricanes: Jaxon Cover, LW, London Knights (OHL)
31. St. Louis Blues (via COL): Adam Valentini, LW, University of Michigan (NCAA)
32. Ottawa Senators: Ryan Roobroeck, C, Niagara IceDogs (OHL)
McKenna's Strengths
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Gavin McKenna's biggest strength is, without question, his passing ability. He is a special playmaker, even when filtering for the best playmakers in the NCAA. Mitch Brown at EPRinkside hand-tracked data in the first half of the season showing that McKenna was setting up scoring chances "at an historic rate". That only continued across the rest of the season.
Per Brown:
"He's shot or set up a higher percentage of his team's 5-on-5 offence than any other NCAA draft-year player by a gap that would be larger had it been compared to their results at the same stage of the season versus the end."
Basically: calling McKenna a play-driver is a massive understatement. He's so dangerous with the puck, particularly along the wall, and the way that he can control the flow of the game from the moment that he steps onto the ice is pure magic.
He's precise and deceptive, constantly keeping opponents guessing with his stick positioning and puckhandling; they don't know what play he's going to choose until he's already made it. He's already able to connect passing options that NHLers are making. He doesn't flinch under pressure, thanks to his ability to practically freeze time and project his opponents' next moves so that he can avoid them.
His skating isn't too shabby either; elite explosiveness and fluidity along with terrific edgework just underpins his offensive skill. He's able to stymie opponents, getting a pass off before they've realized he's not skating in the direction they think he's going. He's slippery and he's just about always two steps ahead of the person tasked with defending him.
McKenna isn't only a passer. He spent the season throwing everything he could on net, ending the year with 152 shots—the highest on Penn State's team—and an innumerably high amount of chances outside of that. Adding muscle and taking the time to both improve and put more power behind his shot will see him become a true dual-threat scorer down the line. He played big minutes, averaging 22:32 per game at the end of the season; again, this was the highest on Penn State's team.
The first half of the season saw McKenna struck with terrible luck in terms of his on-ice shooting percentage. Persistence (and likely a boost from a strong showing at the World Juniors) saw him have much better luck in the second half, with things really going his way offensively.
In the final 19 games of Penn State's season McKenna recorded 33 points, a 1.7 point-per-game pace that brought his season average to 1.46 points-per-game (once again, the highest on the team). While not the 2.3 points-per-game pace he was recording in the WHL the previous year, this was far more in line with what people expected to see from him.
McKenna's Weaknesses
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In our initial scouting report, valid critiques were leveled against McKenna's engagement level and his play without the puck. His first several weeks of college hockey were not what viewers expected based on his play in the WHL; no doubt everyone expected to see him blow the roof off the place and make posters of his opponents nightly. But the NCAA, with its bigger and more experienced players, exposed issues inherent in McKenna's game that were masked by his gaudy offensive totals. And that was a good thing, because it gave him the opportunity to address those issues—effectively required that he do it.
Time and space were much harder for McKenna to find on NCAA ice than they were in the WHL, so he had the puck less than he was used to. And instead of going after it to get it back, he was often caught coasting around, waiting for an opportunity to receive a pass and start back into the offensive zone rather than actively participating in the forecheck. For a player who was already at a disadvantage in board battles, for example, due to his lighter frame, McKenna showcasing little to no pace when playing defense turned some scouts off—and understandably. When a player has the vision and hockey sense that McKenna does, he should be constantly using that vision to find opportunities to outwork opponents.
Fortunately, the second half of the season saw McKenna change course on that issue—not entirely, but in promising enough stretches to show that the ability and willingness to address that weakness at least existed. There were moments where we saw that elite hockey sense utilized to steal pucks back or intercept opportunities by opponents, and moments like that can turn into habits with time.
Too often we see major-junior players run roughshod over their leagues, scoring at obscene levels and garnering all kinds of praise — and then they make the jump to the NHL and the holes in their game that everyone glossed over before, or didn't even notice, are suddenly in the spotlight. This is probably what would've happened to McKenna if he'd stayed in the WHL.
By coming to the NCAA, he gained a pretty significant opportunity: time to build strength in the weight room to add muscles, so he's less anxious about contact away from the puck, and time to work with the coaching staff on ways to deepen his urgency overall and stop disengaging with play when the puck isn't on his stick. In an ideal world he would develop those with another season in the NCAA, but in the real world he is probably going to develop them in the pressure cooker that is Toronto. Either way, chances are good that it will happen and won't significantly impact his path to being a legitimate top forward in the NHL.
And frankly: no matter who he is drafted by — Patrick Kane was never the most physical force or most involved backchecker on the Chicago Blackhawks, either, and they still won the Stanley Cup three times in his tenure there. McKenna needs more time to truly develop into the NHL player he has the potential to be, but he's probably going to be just fine.
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Pro Comparison
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You may have seen people compare Gavin McKenna to Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid due to their comparably absurd high scoring rates at a young age, but that's a lazy and reductive comparison.
You may hear Patrick Kane mentioned, just because of the whole wunderkind high-scoring winger thing, but their playing styles are very different. Connor Bedard isn't quite right, as he plays center to McKenna's wing, but I don't hate it.
Mitch Marner was our comparable in our original scouting report, and that comparison still rings true.
McKenna is a really special, skilled passer and puck handler in a way reminiscent of Marner's ability to slow down the game for himself and spot seams that his opponents haven't realized exist yet.
That aspect of McKenna's game cannot be highlighted enough, especially when it comes to deception—feints, fakes, the way he can put the puck through his feet when he needs to.
Draft Outlook
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Gavin McKenna is going first overall barring some strange timeslip into another dimension. His upside is that of a franchise-altering player, and any team that would pass that up has bigger problems than who they select first overall. His weaknesses are all things he has begun working on addressing, and is likely to continue developing.
Because we now know that the Toronto Maple Leafs have the first overall pick, we can at least somewhat safely assume that is where McKenna is going to land. When he gets there, he's going to be thrown into a market that is home to its team's biggest fans and harshest critics all at once—and those are typically the same people. They're going to have questions, and they're going to voice them loudly.
McKenna has, at the end of the day, proven he's capable of answering them. He's going to be an elite top-six NHL scorer for years down the road.
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