The Best Teams That Didn't Win the World Series Over the Last Decade
A painful truth about Major League Baseball is that the best regular-season team fails to win the World Series more often than not—and it becomes even more of a crapshoot every time the postseason field is expanded.
The 93-win Washington Nationals going through the 106-win Los Angeles Dodgers and the 107-win Houston Astros to win it all in 2019 might be the most egregious example of all, though it did give us two of the top candidates for this ranking of the best teams of the past 10 years that faltered in October.
We looked at three primary data points for this ranking: regular-season wins, Pythagorean* wins and each team's combined pitching WAR and hitting WAR on FanGraphs. That data will be listed at the top of each team's section.
For what it's worth, the 2022 New York Mets were considered but excluded without much difficulty.
If the Dodgers fail to win it all, though, they would be the new No. 1 on this list. And even if they take care of business, both the Astros and Yankees would land in the top 10, probably at Nos. 6 and 8, respectively.
Also for what it's worth, when the 2011-13 Astros normalized tanking in baseball, it kind of broke the sport's competitive balance.
Not a single team won 99 games in 2012, 2013 or 2014, and Houston was the only one to suffer more than 101 losses in any of those seasons. But we've had wild-card teams with triple-digit wins in back-to-back years, as well as some bottom-feeders aggressively throwing in the towel either before the season begins or at the trade deadline.
It has become common for the fourth- or fifth-best team in the league to post run differentials on par with where the best teams would end up not even a decade ago.
As a result, this ranking admittedly skews quite heavily toward 2017-21 as opposed to 2012-16. But data from all 10 years was equally considered.
Teams are ranked in ascending order of how unforgivable it is that they failed to win it all.
Honorable Mentions: 2013 St. Louis Cardinals, 2015 Toronto Blue Jays, 2018 Los Angeles Dodgers, 2020 San Diego Padres, 2021 Tampa Bay Rays, 2021 Houston Astros
*How many games the team should have won, based on its full-season run differential.
10. 2018 New York Yankees
1 of 10
Record: 100-62
Pythagorean Record: 99-63
Team fWAR: 54.4
What Made Them Great?
The 2018 Yankees were loaded with young sluggers.
Giancarlo Stanton hit 38 home runs. Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks (remember when he could stay healthy and had power?), Didi Gregorius and Miguel Andújar each hit exactly 27 home runs. Gleyber Torres had 24. While Luke Voit finished with 14, he did so in just 39 games, putting him on a 162-game pace of 58. Gary Sánchez also hit 18 in 89 games played, so he was on track for 33.
All eight of those players were in their age-28 season or younger—way younger in the case of 21-year-old Torres—when they led the majors in home runs by more than a 10 percent margin. The Yankees finished at 267, and their closest challenger (Dodgers) landed at 235.
They also had a terrifying bullpen.
The Yankees did blow 17 saves, but between Chad Green, Dellin Betances, David Robertson and Aroldis Chapman, it felt like the opposition was screwed if it was trailing heading into the seventh inning.
This bullpen averaged 11.4 K/9, which is the second-highest mark in MLB history, trailing only the 2020 Brewers.
What Went Wrong in October?
Their loathed rivals got the best of them in the ALDS.
In splitting the first two games in Boston against the 108-win Red Sox, the Yankees had stolen home-field advantage. Win both games in the Bronx, and they win the series.
Instead, Game 3 was an unfathomable nightmare for New York. Not only did the Red Sox annihilate the Yankees 16-1, but Brock Holt also became the only player in postseason history to hit for the cycle.
You could almost live with it if Mookie Betts (.346 average that season) had done it. But for it to come from a utility man making his only appearance in the series was just so demoralizing.
The Yankees almost pulled off what would have been a back-breaking, series-extending ninth-inning rally in Game 4, but they fell just short.
9. 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers
2 of 10
Record: 104-58
Pythagorean Record: 102-60
Team fWAR: 52.0
What Made Them Great?
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been absurdly good over the past six regular seasons.
They've won 562 games since the start of 2017. Next-best is Houston at 541, and next-best from the NL is Atlanta at 483. And if you want to talk run differential, holy guacamole. The Dodgers are at plus-1,396. Again, Houston is No. 2 as plus-1,167, and, again, Atlanta is No. 2 in the NL at plus-499.
The 2018 Dodgers just missed the cut, and both the 2019 and 2021 iterations rank higher on the list.
As far as the 2017 Dodgers' greatness is concerned, they were just incredibly well-balanced.
Six players hit at least 21 home runs, led by Cody Bellinger clubbing 39 en route to NL ROY and Justin Turner getting his 21 dingers while batting .322.
Clayton Kershaw finished second in the NL Cy Young vote with a league-best 2.31 ERA. Alex Wood (2.72 ERA) was also pretty darn good. Starters Rich Hill, Hyun Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy all had a sub-4.00 ERA, and they still got Yu Darvish at the trade deadline.
And the cherry on the sundae was closer Kenley Jansen having a career-best season with a 1.32 ERA and a 14.4 K/9.
It almost seemed inevitable that they would at least reach the World Series. It was just a question of whether they could take care of business against Cleveland or Houston once they got there.
What Went Wrong in October?
After cruising through the Diamondbacks and the Cubs in the first two rounds, the Dodgers ran into the Astros for one of the greatest World Series ever.
(You may feel the need to retroactively downgrade it in light of Houston's cheating scandal, but it was incredible theater at the time.)
None of the seven games was decided by more than four runs. Games 2 and 5 both went to extra innings, with the latter being the 13-12 classic. Game 4 also seemed destined for extras, until Los Angeles broke a 1-1 tie with a five-spot in the top of the ninth inning.
But with all the chips in play for Game 7 in Los Angeles, Houston came out on fire with five runs off Darvish in the first two innings, and the Dodgers couldn't recover.
It wasn't for lack of opportunity. Houston's Lance McCullers Jr. was all over the place, hitting four of the 13 batters that he faced. But the Dodgers repeatedly squandered those chances, stranding 10 runners in the first six innings of a 5-1 loss.
8. 2019 Minnesota Twins
3 of 10
Record: 101-61
Pythagorean Record: 97-65
Team fWAR: 55.3
What Made Them Great?
So. Many. Homers.
If you'll recall, 2019 was a preposterous year for the long ball. Nine of the 18 highest single-season team home run totals occurred that season. The Blue Jays hit 247, which heading into that season would have been the eighth-highest total in MLB history. It was only good for ninth-most in 2019.
But the cream of the crop was Minnesota, which set the record with 307 home runs.
Nelson Cruz hit 41. Max Kepler, Miguel Sanó, Eddie Rosario and Mitch Garver each eclipsed 30. C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop and Jorge Polanco each finished north of 20. It was ridiculous. And all eight of those Twins batted .247 or better.
Even the pitching staff was good in the context of a season in which no one could keep the ball in the yard. The unit had a 4.03 FIP that wouldn't have even ranked in the top half of the majors this season but was good for fourth-best in 2019.
What Went Wrong in October?
Unfortunately, the 307-home run team ran into a Yankees club that hit 306, and the Twins immediately got swept out of the ALDS.
And, I mean, that series wasn't even close. New York won each of the three games by at least four runs.
After the third inning of the first game, Minnesota never held the lead.
The Twins did hit four home runs, but they were all solo shots.
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7. 2013 Detroit Tigers
4 of 10
Record: 93-69
Pythagorean Record: 99-63
Team fWAR: 53.9
What Made Them Great?
Putting a 93-win team with 99 expected wins ahead of half a dozen teams that actually got to triple digits might be a hard sell.
But, y'all, go look at that roster.
Not only was it Miguel Cabrera's second consecutive AL MVP season, but Detroit's starting rotation was Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Aníbal Sánchez (the year he won the ERA title), Doug Fister and Rick Porcello.
I know it wasn't until the following year that Porcello really started to master that sinker, and it wasn't until 2016 that he won the AL Cy Young. Still, what a ridiculous "Oh, also" name as the fifth starter in a rotation anchored by Verlander and Scherzer.
Save for Drew Smyly pitching primarily in relief for the only season of his career, the bullpen kind of stunk, and Cabrera hit more home runs (44) than his two closest teammates combined—25 from Prince Fielder and 17 from Torii Hunter. But as far as FanGraphs WAR is concerned, that was the best starting rotation of the past decade and the seventh-best of the past half-century.
What Went Wrong in October?
Detroit's starting pitching did its thing in the 2013 ALCS.
Boston hit .202 with just four home runs in the six-game series. Scherzer (two), Sánchez (two), Verlander and Fister started the six games and had a combined line of 39.1 IP, 27 H, 9 ER, 15 BB, 55 K. That's a 2.06 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and a 12.6 K/9.
The offense simply didn't provide enough support, scoring 18 runs.
It was especially awful in crunch time, scoring just one run after the sixth inning in the series. And even that lone run came when Cabrera grounded into a double play with men on first and third with a 4-2 deficit in Game 5. With the series knotted at 2-2, it was the perfect opportunity to swing all the momentum in Detroit's favor, but its MVP couldn't even muster an RBI.
6. 2021 San Francisco Giants
5 of 10
Record: 107-55
Pythagorean Record: 103-59
Team fWAR: 53.0
What Made Them Great?
The 2021 San Francisco Giants were one of the greatest "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" teams to ever exist.
Don't get me wrong: Shortstop Brandon Crawford (.298 AVG, 24 HR, 11 SB) had a great season. So did catcher Buster Posey, who hit .304 with 18 home runs in his 454 trips to the plate. And Kevin Gausman delivered a sub-3.00 ERA as the ace of a strong pitching staff.
Not a single hitter reached 30 home runs, though, nor appeared in 140 games. Crawford was the only Giant to finish top-20 in the NL MVP voting (fourth), and even Gausman's sixth-place finish for the NL Cy Young felt like a "someone from the 107-win Giants at least needs to be considered here" situation.
They just had a roster loaded with A-minuses and B-pluses, to the point where 10 players hit a dozen home runs and 13 pitchers logged at least 20 innings with a sub-3.20 ERA. It didn't seem to matter who was at the plate or who was on the mound; they just kept finding ways to win.
What Went Wrong in October?
Excluding the 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers, there have been 17 instances in MLB history of a team winning at least 107 games in a single season, and 10 of those teams went on to win the World Series.
But only the 2021 Giants had to begin their postseason run against a 106-win division rival, and they were the hard-luck losers of a sensational best-of-five series.
The improbable hero in the ninth inning of the fifth and final game was Dodgers 1B/CF Cody Bellinger. After hitting a dreadful .165 during the regular season, he delivered the tie-breaking, game-winning single off Camilo Doval, who entered the postseason on a streak of 16.1 consecutive innings without allowing a run.
5. 2019 Los Angeles Dodgers
6 of 10
Record: 106-56
Pythagorean Record: 107-55
Team fWAR: 59.6
What Made Them Great?
For starters, Cody Bellinger was awesome. Not only did he become the first player since 2009 Albert Pujols to rack up at least 46 home runs with a .300 batting average, but he also won a Gold Glove, playing primarily right field while also making occasional starts in center or at first.
Bellinger also got a lot of help on offense from Joc Pederson, Max Muncy and Justin Turner, who hit a combined 98 home runs.
But it was the starting rotation that really paced the 2019 Dodgers to their plus-273 run differential.
While it wasn't enough to top Jacob deGrom for the NL Cy Young, Hyun Jin Ryu led the majors with a 2.32 ERA. He had a 1.01 WHIP, with fellow starters Walker Buehler (1.04), Clayton Kershaw (1.04) and Kenta Maeda (1.07) not far behind him. Rich Hill, Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin each also made at least six starts and had a sub-3.00 ERA.
That strong rotation kept the team from enduring any major slumps. The Dodgers did have a six-game losing streak in April, but there were only two other streaks of three or more losses in the entire season.
What Went Wrong in October?
Too much Stephen Strasburg, too much Max Scherzer and yet another poor postseason showing from Kershaw resulted in an early exit at the hands of the Washington Nationals.
Washington's aces went a combined 20 innings, allowing five runs and striking out 27. But Kershaw gave up three early runs in losing Game 2 and allowed back-to-back home runs in the eighth inning of the do-or-die Game 5, tying the score and setting the stage for Howie Kendrick's 10th-inning grand slam.
Bellinger batting .211 with no RBI didn't help.
4. 2017 Cleveland Guardians
7 of 10
Record: 102-60
Pythagorean Record: 108-54
Team fWAR: 59.2
What Made Them Great?
The offense led by José Ramírez, Francisco Lindor and Edwin Encarnación was potent.
The starting rotation anchored by two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber racked up a ton of quality starts.
Closer Cody Allen had a great year, too, saving 30 games with a 2.94 ERA.
But it really might have been the middle relief that made Cleveland so tough to beat.
Andrew Miller, Dan Otero, Nick Goody and Zach McAllister each made at least 50 appearances, logging a combined 239.1 innings pitched with a 2.41 ERA. They also had Tyler Olson make 30 appearances without allowing a single run.
As a team, the Guardians blew just 10 saves—and still won three of those games. Even in 2003 when Eric Gagné went 55-for-55 in save chances, the Dodgers still blew eight saves, so 10 is ridiculously low.
Cleveland had four legitimate power hitters, four double-digit base stealers, six competent starters and a great bullpen. Basically, this was one of the most well-rounded teams in recent history.
What Went Wrong in October?
The offense went ice-cold at the worst possible time.
After winning Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS against the Yankees, Cleveland was held to five runs and 14 hits and struck out 40 times in the remaining three games, allowing New York to pull off the comeback.
Cleveland was particularly hapless against New York's bullpen, as Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle put up a combined line of 8.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 15 K in Games 3 through 5.
They really did themselves no favors on defense, too, committing seven errors and allowing more unearned runs (seven) in those three games than the total number of runs they scored.
3. 2018 Houston Astros
8 of 10
Record: 103-59
Pythagorean Record: 109-53
Team fWAR: 60.7
What Made Them Great?
There's another iteration of the Astros higher on the list that was outrageously good on offense, but it was lights-out pitching that made the 2018 team special.
The club allowed 534 runs that season, which was best in the AL by 112. Only the Dodgers (610) came within 110 runs of a pitching staff that tallied a dozen shutouts and had 30 other instances allowing just one run.
Justin Verlander was the ace, making 34 starts with a 2.52 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, and Gerrit Cole (2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) wasn't far behind him. But basically everyone was throwing gas. Fourteen of the 16 team leaders in innings pitched averaged better than one strikeout per inning, nine of whom finished the year north of 10 K/9.
Their teamwide 10.44 K/9 was the highest such mark in MLB history among teams that played at least 61 games.
Closer was an adventure as they transitioned from Ken Giles to Héctor Rondón to Roberto Osuna. That ninth-inning drama is largely what kept them from winning the 109 games the run differential suggests they should have gotten.
What Went Wrong in October?
As good as that 103-win Houston team was, the 108-win Boston Red Sox were better.
And in the ALCS, the unstoppable force defeated the immovable object.
Verlander pitched well in the Game 1 victory as Boston managed just three hits in that game. But the Red Sox exploded for 23 runs over the next three games, and the Red Sox won the series in five.
It wasn't any particular hitter who dominated, either. Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez finished in a five-way tie for the team lead with five hits in the series. And then Jackie Bradley Jr. had several huge hits to grab ALCS MVP honors.
2. 2021 Los Angeles Dodgers
9 of 10
Record: 106-56
Pythagorean Record: 109-53
Team fWAR: 56.1
What Made Them Great?
Should the Dodgers fail to win it all this year, they would take over the No. 1 spot on this list with plenty of room to spare.
But last year's team was great in its own right, thanks to a seemingly limitless payroll that could all but eliminate weak links.
Max Muncy was the only season-long Dodger who received a single vote for NL MVP, but they had six guys hit at least 20 home runs, and 41-year-old Albert Pujols hitting a dozen in just 204 plate appearances. The only real issue on offense was Cody Bellinger's inability to remotely regain his 2019 NL MVP form, but a juggernaut can survive one black hole in the lineup.
The pitching was also fantastic, both starting and relief. Walker Buehler and Julio Urías were Cy Young candidates, anchoring a staff in which 15 pitchers logged at least 15 innings with an ERA of 3.00 or better.
But it was the trade deadline acquisitions that pushed Los Angeles over the top.
Bringing in Trea Turner to take the reins at second base and getting Max Scherzer to replace the suspended Trevor Bauer made the Dodgers seemingly invincible. They went 43-13 from that point forward.
What Went Wrong in October?
What happened to the Dodgers?
Eddie Rosario happened to the Dodgers.
Atlanta's left fielder went 14-for-25 (.560) with three home runs and nine RBI in the NLCS, including a pair of four-hit performances. He started Atlanta's late-inning rally in Game 2 with a leadoff single in the eighth and delivered the two-out walk-off hit in the ninth. And it was his three-run home run off Buehler in Game 6 that proved to be the series-winning hit.
But even against guys not named Rosario, that vaunted Dodgers pitching staff just didn't have it. Buehler, Urías and Scherzer allowed a combined 17 runs in 18 innings.
1. 2019 Houston Astros
10 of 10
Record: 107-55
Pythagorean Record: 107-55
Team fWAR: 66.2
What Made Them Great?
The 2019 Houston Astros were relentless on offense.
As a team, they triple-slashed .274/.352/.495, leading the majors in all three categories. In fact, it was the highest team slugging percentage in MLB history. As far as FanGraphs is concerned, it was the sixth-most potent offense of all time, and tops since the 1931 New York Yankees.
Alex Bregman led the way with 41 home runs, but it was a constant onslaught. George Springer hit 39 despite missing 40 games. Jose Altuve and Yuli Gurriel both got to 31. Yordan Alvarez (27 HR in 87 games) and Carlos Correa (21 HR in 75 games) homered at 162-game paces of 50 and 45, respectively. Even backups Kyle Tucker, Aledmys Díaz, Tony Kemp and Martín Maldonado could mash it.
Maybe we should knock them down a few spots or eliminate them from the conversation altogether for allegedly stealing signs to let hitters know what pitches were coming. But we're not here to judge; just to rank.
Also, the one-two punch of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole was ridiculously good, finishing first and second, respectively, in the AL Cy Young vote. And that rotation got even better when the Astros traded for Zack Greinke.
What Went Wrong in October?
In one of the most bizarre best-of-seven series in the history of any sport, the road team won all seven games in the 2019 World Series between the Houston Astros and the Washington Nationals.
Washington's dynamic duo of Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer silenced Houston's potent bats just well enough for Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon and unlikely hero Adam Eaton to carry the Nationals to their first championship.
Statistics via FanGraphs and Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.
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