Red Sox Would Be Foolish to Let Xander Bogaerts Walk amid MLB Free-Agency Rumors

We're quickly approaching the divisional round of the 2022 MLB playoffs. For the Boston Red Sox (78-84), however, the season is already over.

Boston is already focused on the looming offseason, and one of the biggest challenges ahead involves standout shortstop Xander Bogaerts. The 30-year-old All-Star is likely to opt out of his contract, and the Red Sox must determine whether they'll pay market value to retain him.

According to Sean McAdam of Boston Sports Journal, that process has already begun.

"The Red Sox have wasted little time getting to work on getting a new deal done with Bogaerts," McAdams wrote. "The team, including principal owner John Henry and team chairman Tom Werner, has met with Bogaerts 'several times,' in the last week, a source said."

It's unlikely, though, that Boston will have a new deal in place long before free agency starts following the World Series. According to McAdams, the talks to this point have been exploratory:

"One source said no new proposals were exchanged at the meetings, which were conducted without the presence of Bogaerts' agent, Scott Boras. Rather, the meetings were held to emphasize to Bogaerts that the team wants to retain him and will make him its top priority."

Retaining Bogaerts should be a priority, for a couple of reasons. For one, he's a four-time All-Star playing arguably the best ball of his career. This past season, he appeared in 150 games and finished with 171 hits, 73 RBI and 15 home runs while batting .307.

Bogaerts was named to the All-Star team in each of the past two seasons.

Secondly, Bogaerts is a home-grown talent who has been with the organization since 2013. He's a fan-favorite and could go down as an all-time franchise great. Letting him go while he's still in his prime would be a foolish decision.

There is an argument to be made for letting Bogaerts walk, of course. Otherwise, Boston wouldn't have a decision to make. The Red Sox can't know how deep into his 30s he'll remain a great player. A lengthy contract could potentially be problematic, and it won't be cheap.

Bogaerts is set to earn a $20 million base salary in 2023, and he rightfully wants more.

"In 2019, he signed a six-year, $120-million extension," The Athletic's Chad Jennings wrote. "At the time, he'd ranked 26th in the majors in fWAR the previous four seasons. In the four years since, he's ranked 11th, and his remaining three years, $60 million are clearly below market rate for such a player. Bogaerts has made it clear he wants to stay with the Red Sox, but presumably on a new deal that better reflects his current value."

There has to be a price point that the Red Sox aren't comfortable meeting, given Bogaerts' age. However, Boston must be willing to go up to that point—and perhaps pay a little beyond it—for such an integral player.

The reality is that Bogaerts' contract demands shouldn't be outlandish. This is due, in part, to the fact that the shortstop market won't be barren. Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson are set to be free agents. Carlos Correa is likely to join Bogaerts in opting out.

This doesn't mean that other teams won't be in on Bogaerts, of course. However, it should keep any potential bidding war from getting out of hand. Boston, though, would be wise to not let things get to that point. It's not just about the price or the stat projections. It's about what Bogaerts means to Boston—and vice versa.

Bogaerts is valuable to the franchise, and Boston has put in a lot of work developing him.

"There's no question sometimes this game—especially in the A.L. East — doesn't give you much margin for sentimentality when it's in the wrong place," Red Sox CEO Chaim Bloom said, per Jennings. "But if we’re not factoring in who people are, and not just their tools and baseball skills, then we’re not doing a good job.”

While actual contract negotiations may not have begun just yet, the Red Sox should do everything they can to have a deal in place before the World Series. They need to make it clear to Bogaerts that he's valued, wanted and can finish his career in Boston at a fair price.

Sentimentality might mean less if Bogaerts wasn't one of the top players at his position, but he is. Starting over at short would be a detriment to a team that finished last in the AL East and has plenty of other needs to address.

There are reasons for the Red Sox to exercise some caution, but there are even more reasons to strike a deal that makes sense for both sides. Not doing so would be a massive failure for Boston.