The Miracle Mariners and Top Takeaways from MLB's Wild Card Round
With three series ending in sweeps on Saturday and the fourth ending in historic fashion on Sunday night, suffice it to say that the wild-card round of the 2022 Major League Baseball playoffs was, well, wild.
Since we know a whole lot more than we did before the first round of the postseason began Friday, it's time to look at some key takeaways.
We have two for each of the four series. These concern all manner of developments, ranging from the not-at-all surprising to the very surprising, the impressive to the not-so-impressive.
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As its eight-team field and best-of-three format marks a dramatic departure from how the wild-card round worked between 2012 and 2019 and in 2021—wherein there were only two teams in each league squaring off in a single do-or-die game—we've also included our take on the Wild Card Series as a whole.
Cleveland Guardians defeat Tampa Bay Rays
Game 1: Guardians 2, Rays 1
Game 2: Guardians 1, Rays 0 (15)
The Guardians Pitching Is a Problem for Others
To allow just one run in two games constitutes a good couple of days at the office for any pitching staff. Over 24 total innings? Even better.
The lion's share of the credit goes to Guardians aces Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, who certainly resembled the ace duo who put up a 2.92 ERA in the regular season. Bieber set 'em up with 7.2 innings of one-run ball in Game 1, and McKenzie knocked 'em down with six shutout innings in Game 2.
The bullpen? How about 10.1 innings and only four hits with 13 strikeouts. Cutter maestro Emmanuel Clase was especially mean to Rays hitters, retiring all seven he faced.
Guardians hurlers were good all year, but especially so in the second half as they ripped off a 2.99 ERA and the second-most fWAR in MLB. If the wild-card series is any indication, they're not necessarily finished with this act just because the regular season is over.
The Guardians Offense Is a Problem for Them
It would have taken a minimum of two runs for the Guardians to win this series. That they barely beat that mark while going just 13-for-76 with two extra-base hits is cause for alarm.
Granted, Cleveland made those two extra-base hits count. José Ramírez's two-run shot in the sixth inning of Game 1 proved to be a game-winner, while Óscar González's solo blast in the 15th inning of Game 2 was literally a game-winner.
All the same, the Guardians didn't rise above or even to the level of their regular-season offense, which barely scored at a higher rate than the MLB average.
Against a Rays team that scored below the league average, you can get away with that. But not so much against who's next. Awaiting the Guardians in the American League Division Series are Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees, who led the AL with 807 runs and all of MLB with 254 home runs.
Philadelphia Phillies defeat St. Louis Cardinals
Game 1: Phillies 6, Cardinals 3
Game 2: Phillies 2, Cardinals 0
Nobody Should Want to Face Wheeler and Nola
Even as the Phillies went from sitting pretty in the National League wild-card race to fighting for their playoff lives amid a 7-13 stretch to finish the regular season, there were at least two reasons why they could pose a threat in the postseason: Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
Sure enough, they took on a Cardinals offense that led the majors in home runs after the All-Star break and rendered it helpless. Wheeler tossed 6.1 shutout innings in Game 1, while Nola did him one out better in notching 6.2 shutout innings in Game 2.
Ho-hum? Ho-hum, indeed. As their dominant efforts in the wild-card series came on the heels of a combined 3.07 ERA and a 6.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the regular season, Wheeler and Nola have been doing this all year.
On this front, at least, Atlanta should consider itself warned as it awaits the Phillies in the division series.
The Cardinals Were Let Down by Their Biggest Strengths
If Cardinals fans are feeling a little dazed and confused following their team's demise at the hands of the Phillies, let's just say the "confused" part is understandable.
Of all the ways the NL Central champions could have lost a playoff series, it would have been hard to fathom it involving MVP candidates Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado both going ice-cold at the same time:
Or, for that matter, All-Star right-hander Ryan Helsley being responsible for starting the ninth-inning collapse that doomed the Cardinals in Game 1. Or that the other majorly responsible party would be the team's infield defense, which had comfortably led MLB in outs above average during the regular season.
That's a brutal way to lose any series, much less one that marked the end of the line for franchise legends Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright.
Seattle Mariners defeat Toronto Blue Jays
Game 1: Mariners 4, Blue Jays 0
Game 2: Mariners 10, Blue Jays 9
The Mariners Played Like They've Been Here Before
There are times when a guy has to admit when he was wrong. Case in point, this guy in expressing doubt about the Mariners "remaining composed in front of 50,000 or so Torontonians at the Rogers Centre."
The wild-card series may have marked Seattle's first trip to the playoffs in 21 years, but you'd never know it from how they came out and landed a staggering blow early in Game 1 and then pulled off only the third seven-run comeback in postseason history in Game 2.
Did the Mariners punch too far above their weight in taking Toronto to task? Maybe if you're judging them by their over 90-72 record in the regular season, but let's not overlook that they had a run between June 21 and Sept. 4 wherein they went 47-19.
It seems that wasn't a one-off of them playing like their best selves, in which case even the 106-win Houston Astros are going to have their hands full with the Mariners in the division series.
The Blue Jays Need to Learn to Walk the Walk
At no point in 2022 were the Blue Jays lacking in confidence.
Before the season, slugging first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. famously referred to the team's 91-71 effort in 2021 as "a trailer" for "the movie" that would come in 2022. And the day before he was set to take the ball for Game 1 against the Mariners, breakout right-hander Alek Manoah shrugged off a question about pressure:
These, too, are takes that aren't looking so great right now. Manoah got knocked around for four runs over 5.2 innings in Game 1, while Guerrero went just 1-for-8 in the series.
To be fair, it's not for nothing that the Blue Jays at least made the playoffs this year after missing out in 2021. It's nonetheless fair to say that they've been better at generating hype than they have been at living up to it over the last two seasons.
Come 2023, they might want to work on that.
San Diego Padres defeat New York Mets
Game 1: Padres 7, Mets 1
Game 2: Mets 7, Padres 3
Game 3: Padres 6, Mets 0
These Are the Padres That Were Promised
Already with a 60-46 record through 106 games, the Padres were supposed to really take off after they scored an all-time haul at the trade deadline. Instead, they turned themselves into playoff underdogs by going 29-27.
This, of course, is another development for the "You'd Never Know It" file.
The Padres may not have swept the Mets, but this series will nonetheless be remembered for how thoroughly they dominated Games 1 and 3. In the first, Yu Darvish threw seven innings of one-run ball, and the offense hit four home runs off Max Scherzer. In the third, Joe Musgrove led the way to a first-of-its-kind one-hitter:
Also deserving of a shoutout is Trent Grisham, who homered twice and drove in three runs throughout the series and also made a stupendous catch in Game 3.
As their hitters' frequent step-outs against Chris Bassitt clearly had an effect while Mets manager Buck Showalter's "desperate" check of Musgrove's ears did not, the Padres even won the gamesmanship battle in Game 3.
In all, the Padres surely deserved to dispatch the 101-win Mets. Whatever confidence boost they got in the process can only help them against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who won 14 of their 111 games against San Diego in the regular season.
The Mets' Shortcomings Blew Up in Their Face
From the Mets' perspective, it's fair to wonder if the Wild Card Series was a doomed cause as soon as Scherzer got lit up in Game 1. Thus did a likely win turn into a crushing loss, and one that put the team's back against the wall, to boot.
And yet, the Mets might still have been able to salvage the series with a bit more offense and more bullpen depth. Alas, their persistent shortcomings in both departments contributed to their demise.
To the latter, ace closer Edwin Díaz was available for only one inning in Game 3 after being over-extended in Game 2. To the former, the offense basically no-showed in the first game of the series and definitely no-showed in the third. It also went just 4-for-23 with runners in scoring position throughout the series.
It's perhaps needless to say, then, that shoring up these two areas must rank behind only retaining Jacob deGrom on the Mets' list of offseason priorities.
Is the Wild Card Series an Improvement on the Wild Card Game?
We went into this new-ish round—the "ish" being necessary because MLB first test-drove it in 2020—already liking the Wild Card Series, in concept. After a 162-game season, teams simply deserve better than one game to state their case for a deep playoff run.
What worried us was whether shifting away from the one-game playoff would lessen the drama of the wild-card round. Thankfully, this proved to be unfounded. The games were mostly terrific, with five of the nine being decided by three or fewer runs.
Plus, this happened:
There's likewise a contrast between this wild-card round and those that came before it. Under the single-game format, not a single starter was left in for longer than seven innings in 2017, 2018, 2019 or 2021.
It made sense in some cases, but there was also a lot of short-leashing as managers employed parades of relievers as a means to minimize risk.
If the early returns are any indication, that practice won't be as common in the best-of-three format, making it all the more reason to think of it as a change for the better.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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