MLB Playoffs 2022 Wild Card and Round-by-Round Picks and Predictions
The Major League Baseball playoffs are back. What happens next, nobody knows.
We can, however, try our hand at predicting it.
The 2022 postseason marks the debut for MLB's new 12-team field and the re-introduction of the Wild Card Series. This initial round will see eight teams compete in best-of-three showdowns, with all games taking place on the higher seed's home turf.
The winners will move on to the Division Series, where the top four seeds await. After that, it's on to the Championship Series and, of course, the World Series.
Now that everyone has the lay of the land, all you need to know about how we made our predictions is that it mostly involved going with our gut. We can read signs and tea leaves until the bovine come home, but projecting the MLB playoffs is ultimately a best-guess affair.
AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays (6) vs. Cleveland Guardians (3)
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Regular Season Records: Rays 86-76, Guardians 92-70
Season Series: Guardians 4, Rays 2
Projected Pitching Matchups:
- Game 1: LHP Shane McClanahan vs. RHP Shane Bieber
- Game 2: RHP Tyler Glasnow vs. RHP Triston McKenzie
- Game 3*: LHP Jeffrey Springs vs. RHP Cal Quantrill
Based on how these two teams ended the regular season, the Guardians are catching the Rays at the right time and the Rays are catching the Guardians at the exact wrong time.
The Rays hit the skids by going 8-18 and scoring only 3.3 runs per game in their last 26 games. The Guardians lived the good life from Sep. 5 onward, winning 24 of 30 and outscoring the opposition by 46 runs.
Health is still another thing that nudges the needle for this series in Cleveland's favor. The Rays won't have Brandon Lowe, Kevin Kiermaier and quite a few other notable injured players. The Guardians? Their IL has all of one guy on it.
The Rays' best hope is to out-pitch the Guardians. McClanahan and Glasnow indeed have the stuff for the job, and it further helps that the Guardians don't score runs the easy way. Their 127 home runs in the regular season were the second-fewest in MLB.
Then again, Bieber and McKenzie posted sub-3.00 ERAs in their own right and there are a whole bunch of hot hands in Cleveland's bullpen. So even if this series becomes a low-scoring battle, the Guardians should still hold serve at Progressive Field.
Guardians in 2
AL Wild Card: Seattle Mariners (5) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (4)
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Regular Season Records: Blue Jays 92-70, Mariners 90-72
Season Series: Mariners 5, Blue Jays 2
Projected Pitching Matchups:
- Game 1: RHP Luis Castillo vs. RHP Alek Manoah
- Game 2: RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Kevin Gausman
- Game 3*: LHP Robbie Ray vs. RHP Ross Stripling
Here are two more teams that ended the regular season on decidedly different notes. As the Mariners stumbled to a 14-14 finish, and the Blue Jays won 24 of their last 36.
Toronto must nonetheless be wary of Seattle's ability to hit the long ball, as only the New York Yankees topped its 94 home runs in the second half. Even though both spent time on the IL, Eugenio Suárez and Julio Rodríguez hit 27 of those just on their own.
And yet, it's hard to look at this matchup and conclude that the Mariners have the offensive edge. The Blue Jays out-homered them throughout the entire regular season, and they likewise led the AL in average, on-base and slugging percentage.
Courtesy of the Castillo-Gilbert-Ray trio and one of baseball's nastiest bullpens, it's possible that Mariners pitchers will be too much even for Toronto's high-powered offense. They especially throw gas, against which Blue Jays hitters are more good than great.
Yet by this same token, we dare not underestimate Manoah and Gausman. Likewise, it just doesn't seem wise to overestimate a relatively untested Mariners squad remaining composed in front of 50,000 or so Torontonians at the Rogers Centre.
Blue Jays in 3
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies (6) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (3)
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Regular Season Records: Phillies 87-75, Cardinals 93-69
Season Series: Phillies 4, Cardinals 3
Projected Pitching Matchups:
- Game 1: RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP José Quintana
- Game 2: RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Miles Mikolas
- Game 3*: LHP Ranger Suárez vs. RHP Adam Wainwright
The thing to know about the pitching matchups for the Phillies vs. Cardinals Wild Card Series is that, while the former's order was never really in doubt, the latter's very much was.
“It’s going to be tough decisions," St. Louis manager Oli Marmol said on Tuesday, via Katie Woo of The Athletic. "I don’t know what the three are, but I’m super comfortable picking out of a hat and going to town.”
Honestly, he might as well have picked names out of a hat. Wainwright was battling a dead arm toward the end of the year, while Jordan Montgomery just plain hit a wall. Quintana and Mikolas were strong at the end, but neither is particularly overpowering.
Such concerns don't apply to the Phillies, as Wheeler, Nola and Suárez pitched to a 2.95 ERA after the latter ended a stint on the IL on July 16. And even though Bryce Harper missed two months with a broken thumb, the Phillies still out-homered the Cardinals.
The latter tidbit would be a cause for concern for the Cardinals even if Paul Goldschmidt hadn't gone ice-cold in the final weeks of the season. So even knowing that the Redbirds went 53-28 at Busch Stadium, this series has the makings of an upset.
Phillies in 2
NL Wild Card: San Diego Padres (5) vs. New York Mets (4)
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Regular Season Records: Padres 89-73, Mets 101-61
Season Series: Padres 4, Mets 2
Projected Pitching Matchups:
- Game 1: RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Max Scherzer
- Game 2: LHP Blake Snell vs. RHP Chris Bassitt
- Game 3*: RHP Joe Musgrove vs. RHP Jacob deGrom
Though the Mets' rotation should be led by deGrom and then Scherzer in theory, there may be a scheme at work in reality.
Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post, deGrom will only take the hill against the Padres if the Mets are facing elimination. That means Game 2 if they lose Game 1, or Game 3 if the teams split the first two. Or, not at all if the Mets win Games 1 and 2.
Regardless, the Mets are up against a Padres team that never fully launched but is still not to be taken lightly. The Darvish-Snell-Musgrove trio is no joke, and the Manny Machado-Juan Soto duo is about as good as it gets on the other side of the ball.
Because Starling Marte's fractured finger has rendered him unlikely to play, the Mets will be missing one of their top hitters in the Wild Card Series. That may well be their undoing, as it takes depth for their get 'em on, get 'em over, get 'em in offense to do its thing.
Even still, the mere presence of deGrom and Scherzer doesn't bode well for the Padres. Nor does the fact that the Mets put up a 54-27 record at Citi Field, not to mention a 45-37 record against teams above .500. On that front, the Padres only went 38-44.
Mets in 3
AL Division Series: Cleveland Guardians (3) vs. New York Yankees (2)
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Regular Season Records: Guardians 92-70, Yankees 99-63
Season Series: Yankees 5, Guardians 1
Let's grant that the Yankees look more beatable now than they did earlier in the year. After they went 61-23 through July 8 to establish a 118-win pace, they didn't even make it to 100 wins as they slogged through a 38-40 finish.
We can, however, also grant that it's hard to imagine a worse matchup for the Guardians.
Whereas the Guardians hit only 127 home runs all season, the Yankees hit literally twice as many in finishing with 254. Aaron Judge obviously did most of the heavy lifting with an AL-record 62 long balls, but Anthony Rizzo (32) and Giancarlo Stanton (31) likewise would have finished with the team lead for home runs if they played for the Guardians.
Are home runs everything in the playoffs? Well, no. But they do count for a lot. As we've covered before, the team that won the home run battle within a given playoff game between 2012 and 2021 also won the game 59.3 percent of the time.
While the Guardians were a solid road team (46-35) this season, that's only so much comfort when placed against the 57-24 record that the Bronx Bombers had at Yankee Stadium. As such, this may not be much of a contest.
Yankees in 3
AL Division Series: Toronto Blue Jays (4) vs. Houston Astros (1)
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Regular Season Records: Blue Jays 92-70, Astros 106-56
Season Series: Blue Jays 4, Astros 2
Yes, it's true. As mighty as the Astros were this season, the Blue Jays got the better of them in the two clubs' head-to-head matchups.
However, all six contests happened between April 22 and May 1. That was when the Astros were struggling to achieve liftoff at 11-11. After that, they went an AL-best 95-45.
The Blue Jays may nonetheless be able to take it to the Astros again if their offense shows up as the best version of itself. Because as good as Houston's own offensive attack may be, Toronto's lineup runs deeper and was ultimately more productive in the regular season.
But if anything could stop Blue Jays hitters in this series, it's the Astros' ace duo of Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. They posted a combined 2.32 ERA and, crucially, ranked second and seventh in home runs per nine innings.
Otherwise, there's also the fact that the Astros went 55-26 at Minute Maid Park. They also went 42-27 against winning teams, compared to 45-49 for the Blue Jays. As we counted such things in the Mets' favor, it's only fair to also count them in Houston's.
Astros in 4
NL Division Series: Philadelphia Phillies (6) vs. Atlanta (2)
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Regular Season Records: Phillies 87-75, Atlanta 101-61
Season Series: Atlanta 11, Phillies 8
The season series between these two teams was even closer than the wins and losses make it look. In securing those three extra wins, Atlanta outscored the Phillies by all of three runs.
All the same, here's where we have yet another case of two teams that ended the regular season on very different notes.
Atlanta went into the playoffs hot with a 22-10 run that included five wins in seven games against the Phillies. The Phillies also struggled outside of those seven contests, ultimately losing 20 out of their last 35 games.
What would give the Phillies more of a fighting chance at an upset is if Wheeler and Nola were to be available to start the first two games of the series. That's not going to be the case unless Rob Thomson is comfortable starting both on three days' rest.
Atlanta, meanwhile, could get ascendant rookie right-hander Spencer Strider back from oblique soreness in time for the NLDS. Him alongside Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton plus the NL's best home run-hitting offense sounds like a recipe for success to us, and ditto for the club's 55-26 record at Truist Park.
Atlanta in 4
NL Division Series: New York Mets (4) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (1)
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Regular Season Records: Mets 101-61, Dodgers 111-51
Season Series: Mets 4, Dodgers 3
Imagine winning 101 games in a season, yet still being the underdog in a playoff series against a team that somehow won 10 more games than that.
That's the position the Mets would be in if they face the Dodgers in the NLDS, but a defeat would hardly be a fait accompli. The Mets handled the Dodgers better than most in the regular season, after all, and the Boys in Blue have their flaws. Namely, an overly left-handed rotation and no closer to speak of.
But even if Edwin Díaz would give the Mets a clear advantage on the latter front, they may not be the right team to take advantage of the former. They were less dangerous against left-handed starters (.720 OPS) than against the right-handed (.756 OPS) variety this season.
Our prediction that the Mets will need three games to dispatch San Diego in the Wild Card Series would put them at yet another disadvantage in the Division Series. If that's the case, none of Scherzer, deGrom and Bassitt would be immediately available.
As to other potentially telling matters, the Dodgers went 57-24 at home and 50-27 against winning teams this season. They'll be tough for anyone to beat, Mets included.
Dodgers in 4
AL Championship Series: New York Yankees (2) vs. Houston Astros (1)
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Regular Season Records: Yankees 99-63, Astros 106-56
Season Series: Astros 5, Yankees 2
This just seems meant to be, doesn't it?
The Yankees and Astros know all too well what it's like to face each other in the American League Championship Series, though their feelings about what transpired in 2017 and 2019 couldn't be more different. The Astros won both contests, but the Yankees have surely neither forgotten nor forgiven the tarnish on the '17 victory.
Nevertheless, the Yankees would have their work cut out for them in getting their revenge.
The Astros not only won the season series, but may well have swept it if their bullpen hadn't blown leads at Yankee Stadium on June 23 and June 26. And that was when the Yankees were trafficking in historic domination before turning from that path in the latter half.
These things would bode well for Houston, as would New York's iffy 42-39 record away from Yankee Stadium during the regular season. The Astros would otherwise just need to contain Judge. The Yankees were 39-12 when he homered, compared to 60-51 when he didn't.
Astros in 6
NL Championship Series: Atlanta (2) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (1)
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Regular Season Records: Atlanta 101-61, Dodgers 111-51
Season Series: Dodgers 4, Atlanta 2
Another Championship Series rematch? The Dodgers and Atlanta have played two good ones in the last two iterations, so, sure, why not?
History would be on the Dodgers' side if they met Atlanta for Round 3 in the NLCS. Of the six previous teams to win at least 110 games in a season, only the 2001 Seattle Mariners didn't make it as far as the World Series.
The Dodgers would be in even better shape if a chip were to materialize on Freddie Freeman's shoulder. He indeed already seems to have it out for his former team, as he tortured them to the tune of a 1.117 OPS and two homers in the regular season.
But contrary to the Mets, what if Atlanta is just the team to exploit the Dodgers' weaknesses? Former Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen ended the year on a torrid streak, and Atlanta's .799 OPS against left-handed starters was the best in the business this season.
Further, Atlanta (78-34) actually had a slightly better record than the Dodgers (78-35) over the final four months of the season. Who are we to ignore that?
Atlanta in 7
World Series: Atlanta (2) vs. Houston Astros (1)
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Regular Season Records: Atlanta 101-61, Astros 106-56
Season Series: Atlanta 2, Astros 1
A World Series rematch? There hasn't been one of those since the Yankees and Dodgers met in 1978 after clashing in 1977, so one might say baseball is due for one.
If such a thing does come to pass, Atlanta would have to like its chances of beating the Astros all over again.
Why they were able to do so in the 2021 World Series isn't especially complicated. The home run ball was the biggest deciding factor, as Atlanta generated 11 to just two for Houston. Three of Atlanta's came in the decisive Game 6, including Jorge Soler's back-breaking blast.
Trouble is, this version of the Astros may not be as susceptible to such an attack. Far from just Verlander and Valdez, not suffering home runs was a team-wide talent for the Astros this season. Their 134 allowed were the second-fewest after the San Francisco Giants.
Besides, if we're going to talk about things that are due, how about Astros manager Dusty Baker finally winning in the Fall Classic for a change? After 25 years of trying and two close calls in 2002 and 2021, it's about time it happened for him.
Astros in 7
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
