MLB Playoff Picture 2022: Hot Takes and Top Storylines for October 7 Schedule
The eight-team MLB wild-card series makes its debut on Friday with two matchups in the American and National League.
The four series will kick off the postseason, and all of the games in every series will take place in one ballpark.
Cleveland, St. Louis, Toronto and the New York Mets hold home-field advantage, but some teams may drop Game 1 because of the matchups in play.
A majority of the aces on the eight playoff teams will start Game 1. Shane McClanahan, Shane Bieber, Zach Wheeler, Jose Quintana, Alek Manoah, Luis Castillo, Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish will toe the rubber for their respective teams.
Scherzer and Darvish have the most postseason experience out of the octet, and that could show with a low-scoring game between the Mets and Padres inside Citi Field.
Some of the other pitchers may be susceptible to high hit or run concessions, and that could allow some hitters to finish as the stars of the day.
Cleveland, Toronto Benefit Most from Home Field
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Cleveland and Toronto appear to be in the best situations to win Game 1 at home on Friday.
Toronto Game 1 starter Alek Manoah ranks ninth in the majors in home ERA. He gave up three earned runs on 11 hits in each of his last three home starts.
Manoah threw into the seventh inning in three of his last seven home starts, and he pitched at least six frames in his last three times on the Rogers Center mound.
Seattle had the 16th-best batting average and 17th-most hits on the road in the majors during the regular season. The Mariners went 3-7 on their last road trip against the Los Angeles Angels, Oakland and Kansas City.
Manoah should get an extra charge from the home crowd, and that could help him keep Julio Rodriguez and Co. at bay for the first two-thirds of the contest.
Cleveland could cruise to a Game 1 victory behind the second-half form of Shane Bieber. He had the second-most wins after the All-Star break. During that span, he had 92 strikeouts and issued 11 walks while recording a 2.48 ERA.
Cleveland's pitching staff ranks in the top 10 in home ERA, and they issued the 11th-fewest walks at home. All four of Friday's hosts rank inside the top 11 in fewest walks allowed in their home ballpark.
A quality start out of Bieber could allow the Guardians to get two or three shutdown innings out of their bullpen. They could just call on James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase to finish off the contest.
Clase has been one of the most unhittable pitchers in baseball all season, and if Cleveland enters the final two innings with a one-run lead, it should be safe.
Cleveland and Toronto still have to win another game to advance to the ALDS, but they should be in good position to clinch on Saturday.
Padres vs. Mets Produces Fewest Runs
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Predicting that Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish will be involved in a pitchers' duel is not a bold prediction, but it may be the easiest one to make for Friday's quartet of games.
Scherzer conceded more than three earned runs in just three of his 26 postseason appearances, and all of those occurrences happened before 2017.
Scherzer produced 21 strikeouts in three postseason starts for the Dodgers last year. He gave up 10 hits in 16.2 innings of work over three starts and one relief appearance in three different rounds in 2021.
The Mets right-hander had five starts of at least five innings during the Washington Nationals' 2019 title run. He allowed 21 hits and eight earned runs across those appearances. He also had three strikeouts in an inning in a relief appearance.
Darvish scattered five hits and gave up two earned runs in 5.2 innings in his last postseason start with the Chicago Cubs in 2020.
The San Diego ace conceded one earned run in each of his first two road starts in the 2017 postseason for the Dodgers. He lasted 1.2 innings in the third of those appearances, but he does have experience pitching on the road in the postseason.
Darvish lasted at least six innings in all of his starts in July, August and September. He conceded more than three earned runs twice in that 16-start span.
Scherzer would love to forget his last start, when he gave up four earned runs on nine hits against the Atlanta Braves.
Scherzer may have some extra motivation to erase that start from his brain with a fantastic outing in Game 1.
Both pitchers will likely last into the sixth inning, and the two lineups need to take advantage of one mistake, if it even happens, to break the deadlock in what has the potential to be a 2-1, 1-0-type game.
Nick Castellanos Is Friday's Hitting Star
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Nick Castellanos had one of the more disappointing regular seasons of any free-agent signing.
Castellanos only hit 13 home runs and .263 in 136 games for the Phillies, but he could make people forget about his struggles with a strong postseason.
Castellanos has some of the best head-to-head numbers of any hitter against a Game 1 starter. He is 11-for-40 against Jose Quintana with two home runs, six RBI, two walks and a .735 OPS.
Quintana was given the Game 1 start by the Cardinals partly because he has a 2.24 home ERA this season, and he threw 5.2 scoreless innings against the Phillies in his last start with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Quintana conceded three earned runs in September, so some Phillies players may find him hard to hit.
Castellanos' experience against the southpaw could help him emerge from Friday as the biggest story at the plate. He had a three-hit game in Game 1 of the wild-card round in 2020 for the Cincinnati Reds.
He may not have three hits again on Friday, but Castellanos could come up in the clutch because of his history against Quintana and put the Phillies ahead in the series.
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