AL Wild Card Series 2022: Rays vs. Guardians Storylines and Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays are back in the postseason for the fourth straight year.
The Rays have not gotten out of the ALDS in two of the last three seasons. They advanced to the World Series in 2020.
The first playoff challenge for Kevin Cash's team will be playing the youngest team in baseball inside its home park in the American League Wild Card series.
The Cleveland Guardians defied expectations in the AL Central and used a bevy of young talent to surge past the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins for the division title.
Cleveland was swept in its last two forays into the postseason. It lost two games in the AL Wild Card round in 2020 and lost three straight in the 2018 ALDS.
Terry Francona's managerial experience in the postseason, home field, dynamic pitching and a fearless young core could be the perfect formula for Cleveland to advance into the ALDS.
Tampa Bay's formula may be similar to Cleveland's when it comes to dominant pitching. Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow will do battle with Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie in Games 1 and 2.
If the Rays make it to Game 3, they may have the slightest advantage if they can use one of Cleveland's biggest weaknesses against it.
Cleveland's Young Core Makes Postseason Debut
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Cleveland's success is remarkable when you consider most of its roster just went through its first divisional pennant race.
The Guardians used three players over the age of 30 all season. Bryan Shaw made 60 appearances out of the bullpen. Sandy Leon and Luke Maile were utilized as backup catchers.
The rest of the roster, including stars Shane Bieber and Jose Ramirez, are under the age of 30 and set up for years of success.
Cleveland's youth also comes with inexperience, and there is a possibility the moment could be too big for the group in its first playoff series.
The experience of manager Terry Francona should help with the series preparations, and so should playing inside Progressive Field, where the team was 46-35. Tampa Bay was 35-46 on the road in the regular season.
Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario, Oscar Gonzalez and Andres Giménez all have batting averages over .285 at home, and the team has a .252 batting average at home, which is the 11th-best total in the majors.
Cleveland needs a strong start out of Kwan, Rosario and Jose Ramirez so that Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow do not settle into a rhythm on the mound for Tampa Bay.
The only flaw that could be exposed in the Wild Card Series is Cleveland's struggles against left-handed pitching. The Guardians rank 28th in OPS, 29th in slugging percentage and 24th in on-base percentage against lefties. The Rays could start two lefties in McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs if the series goes three games.
Pitching Could Dominate Series
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The first two games of the Rays-Guardians series will feature one AL Cy Young Award winner and three other pitchers who could win the award in the future.
2020 AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber will oppose Shane McClanahan, who was the favorite at one point to win the 2022 award, in Game 1. Triston McKenzie and Tyler Glasnow will square off in Game 2.
McKenzie has the best home ERA of any pitcher in the series at 2.77, and he has been Cleveland's most consistent hurler all season.
Bieber and likely Game 3 starter Cal Quantrill have been two of the best pitchers since the All-Star break. Bieber and Quantrill are tied for second behind Kyle Wright for most wins since the All-Star Game. All three of Cleveland's pitchers rank in the top 15 in ERA since the second half kicked off.
McClanahan is fifth in the majors in road ERA. He had 67 strikeouts and 11 walks away from Tampa this season.
Glasnow likely would have been in the mix for the lead in some statistics if he played a whole season. He will make his third start back from Tommy John surgery in Saturday's Game 2.
Tampa Bay and Cleveland both rank in the top six in team ERA. Some of the best bullpen arms in the game will be on display, starting with Emmanuel Clase, who won the save title with Cleveland.
The Rays and Guardians played three one-run games last week in Cleveland. Two of those games ended 2-1. That was probably a good preview of what we will see in Cleveland over two or three games.
Will Playoff Randy Return for Rays?
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Randy Arozarena became a household name across baseball for his tremendous hitting run through the 2020 postseason.
Arozarena hit 10 home runs in the three playoff series against the New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Tampa Bay Rays outfielder would love to discover that form at the plate again in Cleveland after he went through a rough end to the regular season.
Arozarena had two hits in his final eight regular-season games. He recorded the second-lowest monthly OPS of his season in September, and he had just two home runs in the final full month of the regular season.
Tampa Bay has to hope Arozarena reverts back to his form from October 2020 because he is one of the few players in the Rays lineup who can change the game with one swing.
Arozarena and Isaac Paredes were the only Rays players with 20 home runs. Both players hit exactly 20 dingers. Ji-Man Choi was the only other Tampa Bay player with a double-digit home run total.
Arozarena also led the Rays in doubles and stolen bases. He is the best game-changer in the lineup, but if he struggles, Tampa Bay could be devoid of hits in key situations against a Cleveland pitching staff that does not make many mistakes.
Statistics obtained from MLB.com
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