MLB Playoff Picture 2022: Mets vs. Braves and Most Pivotal Series Remaining
The last division title to be clinched in Major League Baseball could go down to the final day of the regular season.
The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves are separated by one game in the National League East entering the three-game set that begins in Atlanta on Friday.
The season series between the NL East rivals suggests we may not see a ton of movement in the standings over the next three days. The Mets have a slight 9-7 edge in the season series.
Atlanta took three of four games in the most recent series between the NL East rivals inside Truist Park in August.
New York will try to reverse the result this time around by throwing in Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer on Friday and Saturday, respectively. Atlanta will counter with its two best pitchers, Max Fried and Kyle Wright.
The Mets-Braves series should capture the attention of the baseball-watching public this weekend, but there are a few more important series to watch between now and the end of the regular season on Wednesday.
The last two wild-card spots in each league have yet to be clinched. The math is much easier to follow in the American League, where the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners are close to locking up postseason berths.
The San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers are fighting for the last two NL wild-card spots. San Diego leads Philadelphia by 2.5 games, and the Phillies have a half-game advantage over the Brewers.
Mets at Braves (September 30-October 2)
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The most important regular-season series left on the MLB calendar takes place in Georgia this weekend.
The New York Mets carry a one-game lead over the Atlanta Braves into Truist Park. Both teams have their best pitchers lined up for a trio of blockbuster matchups.
Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt will throw in that order for the Mets. Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton toe the rubber for Atlanta.
The culmination of the series takes place on Sunday night, the last game of the baseball weekend, with Bassitt and Morton going head-to-head.
Atlanta won three of four games in Georgia back in August. The Braves won four of their last five games to prepare for the Mets. New York alternated wins and losses over the last five games of their road trip in Milwaukee and Oakland.
All three games could be low-scoring tilts. DeGrom and Fried could set the tone for the series on Friday night.
The opener is more important on a personal level for deGrom, who gave up five earned runs over four innings in his last start against the Oakland Athletics. The Mets ace allowed 11 runs in 18 innings over his last three appearances. Fried has not given up three earned runs in a start since July 25.
Scherzer has been more lights out on the mound compared to his Saturday counterpart Wright. Scherzer conceded one or zero earned runs in each of his last four starts. Wright has two concessions of six or more earned runs in the last two months, one of which came against the Mets inside Citi Field on August 4.
New York should have the edge in the series finale. Morton allowed four or more earned runs in three of his last four starts, while Bassitt conceded 10 runs in his last five starts.
The Mets need a sweep to secure the division title. Any other result would drag the division title race into next week. The Mets play the Washington Nationals at home for three games, and the Braves take on the Miami Marlins for three games in south Florida.
Rays at Astros (September 30-October 2); Phillies at Astros (October 3-5)
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The Houston Astros can play an important role in both wild-card races.
Houston welcomes the Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies for its last two series of the regular season.
Houston needs to take care of its own business first. A win on Friday over Tampa Bay, or a New York Yankees loss to the Baltimore Orioles, gives it the No. 1 seed in the AL.
The Astros hold a 5.5-game lead over the Yankees for the AL's top seed, so that should be clinched at some point this weekend if it does not happen on Friday.
Dusty Baker's postseason preparations could hamper the Rays' and Phillies' playoff seeding or playoff hopes.
Tampa Bay holds a one-game lead over Baltimore for the final wild-card position. The Rays need one win in Houston to get into the postseason. Their wild-card seeding will be affected if they lose multiple games. Toronto is up on Tampa by two games, and Seattle leads the Rays by a half-game.
Philadelphia's foray into Houston from Monday to Wednesday could mark the end of its season. The Phillies were just swept by the Chicago Cubs and hold a half-game lead over the Brewers going into Friday.
Milwaukee has an easier schedule with the Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks coming to American Family Field.
Houston may not be playing for anything in its final series, but it could use those games as a playoff tune-up for Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers Jr. Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia are scheduled to start against Tampa Bay.
If Houston lands the No. 1 seed, it could send Verlander and McCullers to the mound during the week to stay fresh with the first-round bye in hand.
The Rays will go with Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan and Corey Kluber this weekend in Houston to try to lock up the postseason berth and potentially land the No. 5 seed over Seattle.
Philadelphia's rotation for the Houston series is yet to be determined, but it will have Aaron Nola available. Zach Wheeler is scheduled to go on Sunday against the Nationals.
Marlins at Brewers (September 30-October 2)
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The Miami Marlins have long been eliminated from postseason contention, but they are one of the most important teams in the NL playoff races for the next six days.
Miami opened its series in Milwaukee with a 4-2 victory over the Brewers on Thursday. That result kept the Brewers a half-game back of the Phillies going into Friday.
Corbin Burnes and Sandy Alcantara will square off on Friday night in one of the best pitching matchups you can get in the NL.
The Marlins will send Edward Cabrera and Pablo Lopez to the hill on Saturday and Sunday. Milwaukee has not named starters yet for those games.
Miami could pull off a sweep in Wisconsin because of the quality of starting pitchers the team is putting on the mound.
Philadelphia has to hope its divisional rival takes care of business on the road so that it can open up a bit of a lead in the NL wild-card race while it plays in Washington.
The Brewers will have an advantage in knowing what they have to do against the Marlins. The Phillies play a doubleheader on Friday, starting with an afternoon game, and they do not play on Saturday because of the remnants of Hurricane Ian.
Milwaukee has the easier schedule to end the regular season, with Arizona coming in after Miami, but if it drifts too far behind Philadelphia, it may not be able to get over the line in the wild-card race while the Phillies are in Houston.
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