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Fantasy Football: How Playoff Scenarios Could Impact Your Week 17 Line-Up

Matt LechnerDec 29, 2011

It's rare these days for fantasy football leagues to play through Week 17. But there are some that are set up that way, which means Week 17 is the championship in those leagues.

Having the championship game in Week 17 is not ideal. A handful of teams aren't playing meaningful games this week and many of the star fantasy players don't end up playing much.

Take the Green Bay Packers for instance. They have clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs in the NFC. Their game against the Detroit Lions Sunday is meaningless, and their top players probably won't play much. That means fantasy teams with Aaron Rodgers, like mine, won't have him for the most important game of the year.

I'm not a fan of Week 17 championships, but I guess it's part of the game sometimes.

If you are playing for your league's championship in Week 17, here are the scheduling scenarios that could impact your fantasy team this weekend.

Detroit Lions (10-5) at Green Bay Packers (14-1)

1 of 16

The Packers aren't playing for anything this weekend. Their main goal is to leave this game against Detroit with a full roster of healthy players. 

I expect Aaron Rodgers and the other Packers skill players to play only sparingly on Sunday, maybe a quarter. This scenario does not bode well for fantasy owners who have relied on Rodgers all year.

As hard as it will be to do, I'd recommend benching Rodgers this week.

As for the rest of the Packers players, Ryan Grant likely won't play a full game; neither will Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley, James Jones or James Starks. I'd keep those guys on your bench as well.

As for the Packers players who may play larger roles this weekend, that list includes Matt Flynn, Brandon Saine and Randall Cobb (if he's healthy). All of those guys are risky starts, but they're probably available in your league if you need them.

On the Detroit side of the ball, make sure you're starting all of your Lions.

The Lions have already clinched a wild-card berth, but this game is still important to them. If they win Sunday, they would be locked into the fifth seed in NFC. That means they would avoid the New Orleans Saints and/or the San Francisco 49ers.

The fifth seed would play the NFC East champion, which will either be the New York Giants or Dallas Cowboys. Most would argue the least path of resistance in the NFC is through Dallas or New York rather than San Francisco or New Orleans.

Consider Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith and Brandon Pettigrew all solid plays this week. Nate Burleson is also an option as a flex or WR3 play this week against the Packers.

Game time is set for noon (CST).

Tampa Bay Bucaneers (4-11) at Atlanta Falcons (9-6)

2 of 16

The outcome of the Lions/Packers game will have a huge impact on this game for the Falcons.

If the Lions lose to the Packers, the Falcons can secure the fifth seed with a win over the hapless Bucs. The Falcons own the tiebreaker over the Lions should both teams finish the regular season 10-6.

Finishing as the fifth seed as opposed to the sixth seed is significant for the same reason I've already mentioned. The No. 5 seed avoids the Saints or the 49ers in the first round of the playoffs. Instead, they travel to either New York or Dallas for a game that many view as much more winnable.

If you own any Falcons players, make sure you're near a computer Sunday in case you need to change your lineup.

If the Lions beat the Packers in the early game, I would suggest benching Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones. A Detroit victory would lock the Falcons into the No. 6 seed in NFC, making their Week 17 game meaningless.

However, if the Lions lose to the Packers, get your Falcons players into your starting lineup as fast as you can. Atlanta has a great matchup this week against Tampa Bay, and I expect big games from all of the players mentioned above.

One player who could be a sneaky start for the Falcons is Jacquizz Rodgers. Rodgers could see extended playing time if the game is meaningless.

I don't recommend starting any Buccaneers players this weekend.

Game time is set for 3:15 p.m. (CST).

San Francisco 49ers (12-3) at St. Louis Rams (2-13)

3 of 16

The Niners currently hold the No. 2 seed in the NFC. They're tied with the New Orleans Saints, but the Niners own the tiebreaker and they have a very winnable game Sunday.    

Their game with the Rams is significant because a win will earn the Niners a first-round bye.

Look for the Niners to play their starters the entire game, at least until they have control of the game.

Frank Gore is a must start this week, as is the Niners D/ST. Both should have big games against a weak Rams team.   

As for the Rams, they're playing for pride and roster spots. The only players worth considering starting are Steven Jackson and Brandon Lloyd; however, I'm not confident in either of those guys this week.

Game time is set for noon (CST).

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Carolina Panthers (6-9) at New Orleans Saints (12-3)

4 of 16

The Saints still have a shot at the No. 2 seed in the NFC. However, given that the Niners have the tiebreaker and a winnable game in Week 17, it'll be difficult for the Saints to overtake San Francisco.

With that said, like the Niners, the Saints also play at noon (CST). That means they won't know the outcome of the Niners game, and they'll likely keep their starters on the field for much of the game.   

If you own Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Darren Sproles or Pierre Thomas, feel consider about keeping them in your starting lineup this week. 

The only thing that would prevent those guys from having big games is a blowout by the Niners. Expect the Saints coaching staff to watch the scoreboard Sunday. If the Niners open up a big lead against the Rams, the Saints may decide to pull their starters.

But that's a lot of what-ifs. Feel confident starting your Saints players this week.

As for the Panthers, this is a great matchup for their players. The Saints give up a lot of yards, and Carolina should have plenty of opportunities to score. 

Cam Newton is a great start in Week 17, as is Steve Smith. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are also worthy starters this week.    

Game time is set for noon (CST).

Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at New York Giants (8-7)

5 of 16

This game is simple for fantasy owners: play all of your players from these two teams.

The winner of this game will earn the fourth seed on the NFC and a trip to the playoffs. So essentially, this is a playoff game for both teams.

That means Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jaocbs, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Felix Jones are all must starts. 

Game time is set for 7:30 p.m. (CST).  

Chicago Bears (7-6) at Minnesota Vikings (3-12)

6 of 16

This game between two team already eliminated from playoff contention doesn't offer many options for fantasy owners.

With Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte both out with knee injuries, the starting running backs Sunday will be Toby Gerhart and Kahlil Bell. Both are coming off solid games in Week 16, and both are good starts Sunday.

Percy Harvin is also an option at flex or WR3 against a weak Bears secondary.

As for the Bears, I can't endorse starting anyone other than Bell on offense, even against the Vikings terrible pass defense.

However, I do recommend starting the Bears D/ST against Christian Ponder and the Vikings offense.

Game time is set for noon (CST).

Washington Redskins (5-10) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-8)

7 of 16

The only thing awaiting these teams after this game is a long, painful offseason. Not much went right for either team this season.

The Eagles should have no problem winning this game, and I expect a solid game from Michael Vick.

Along with Vick, make sure you have DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are in your line-up.

As for LeSean McCoy, his status is still very much in doubt. The Pro-Bowl running back is nursing an ankle injury and may not play in the season finale.

If that's the case, Ronnie Brown would likely get most of the carries for the Eagles against the Redskins. Make sure you're ready to make the switch if McCoy is ruled out.

The Eagles D/ST is also a very good option against a turnover-prone Washington offense.

On the Redskins side, the best two options are guys you probably never thought you'd have on your fantasy roster this season. They are Evan Royster and Jabar Gaffney.

Royster took over as the Redskins feature back in Week 16 and finished the game with 132 rushing yards. However, the latest news out of Washington is that Roy Helu may play after missing last week with a toe injury. If Helu plays, Royster goes from a solid start to a gamble.

Gaffney, meanwhile, has been the Skins most consistent receiver this season. He's coming off a three-game stretch where he has 254 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He's a good flex or WR3 option.

Game time is set for noon (CST).

Seattle Seahawks (7-8) at Arizona Cardinals (7-8)

8 of 16

The winner of this game will finish the season at .500, which would have been good enough to make the playoffs last season in the NFC West. However, this season, both teams will be on the outside looking in.

This game features just two players who I would feel confident starting, Larry Fitzgerald and Marshawn Lynch. Both guys are must starts, and I expect both will have solid games.

I also really like Seattle D/ST, enough to call them a must-start.

The Seahawks have been the highest scoring D/ST since Week 10 with 109 points. 

Another player that has put together a solid season is Beanie Wells. However, he has struggled recently. Since rushing for 228 yards in Week 12 against the St. Louis Rams, he has just 198 rushing yards in four games.

With nothing on the line, the Cardinals may limit Wells' carries in Week 17. It would be wise to start looking for a replacement.

Game time is set for 3:15 (CST).

Buffalo Bills (6-9) at New England Patriots (12-3)

9 of 16

The Patriots have an opportunity to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win this weekend. 

However, a loss to Buffalo may knock them out of the top spot in the AFC, giving either Pittsburgh or Baltimore the top seed.

The threat of playing away from Gillette Stadium in January should be enough to motivate New England in Week 17. Fantasy owners should also feel confident about keeping all Pats players in their starting line-up.

I expect Tom Brady, Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski to have big games against the Bills. Also, Aaron Hernandez is a good option if you need a fill-in this weekend.

As for the Bills, Ryan Fitzpatrick should get plenty of opportunities to throw against a weak Patriots secondary. He is a solid start, as is Steve Johnson and C.J. Spiller.

Even though the Bills aren't playing for anything, you can feel good about keeping those players in your lineup. 

Game time is set for noon (CST).

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) at Cleveland Browns (4-11)

10 of 16

The Steelers have every reason to play their starters in Week 17. A win by Pittsburgh and a loss by Baltimore means the Steelers wrap up the No. 2 seed in the AFC. 

Also, if the Patriots lose their early game, the Steelers still have a chance at the No. 1 seed.

With that said, like the Steelers, the Ravens also play at 3:15 (CST). That means they won't know the outcome of the Steelers game, and they'll likely keep their starters on the field for much of the game.   

Rashard Mendenhall and Pittsburgh D/ST are the only two must starts in this game, with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown both coming in as very good starts.

Wallace and Brown's value increases if Ben Roethlisberger is able to play, which could be tough given the severity of Roethlisberger's ankle injury.  

Expect the Steelers coaching staff to watch the scoreboard Sunday. If the Ravens open up a big lead against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Steelers may decide to pull their starters.

However, I don't expect that Ravens/Bengals game to get out of hand. So feel confident about starting your Steelers players this week.

I don't recommend starting any Browns players this weekend.

Game time is set for 3:15 p.m. (CST)

Baltimore Ravens (11-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)

11 of 16

This game is important for two reasons: a win by the Ravens, and they lock up the No. 2 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye. However, if the Bengals win, they will secure the sixth playoff spot in the AFC.

Heading into Week 17, there are four AFC teams that are still alive for that final wild card spot. The Oakland Raiders, Tennessee Titans and New York Jets all have a shot. Two of those teams, the Jets and Titans, will have already played by the time the Ravens/Bengals game kicks off. So, the Bengals will know if they need to win based on those two games.

However, the third team in this playoff equation, the Raiders, don't play until 3:15 p.m. (CST), the same time as the Ravens/Bengals. This is significant because if the Bengals lose and the Raiders win, Oakland is in the playoffs by virtue of the tiebreaker. 

Despite being the current sixth seed in the AFC, the Bengals must play to the end to secure their spot.

With that said, this isn't a very good matchup for the Bengals. The Ravens boast one of the league's best defenses.

I recommend definitely starting A.J. Green, and start Cedric Benson if you're desperate at running back.

On the Ravens side, the must-start players include Ray Rice and Ravens D/ST. Torrey Smith is also a solid option at flex or WR3, and Joe Flacco is a good option if you need a quarterback.

Game time is set for 3:15 p.m. (CST).

Tennessee Titans (8-7) at Houston Texans (10-5)

12 of 16

The Texans are locked into the three seed in the AFC and likely won't risk injury to any of their players in this meaningless games.

That means Arian Foster should be on your bench this week. Back-up running back Ben Tate is a solid option of you have him. Derrick Ward is also a wild card, but I think there are better options than him this week.

I wouldn't start any Texans receivers this week; that includes tight end Owen Daniels, who will likely get an early hook in this game.

As for the Titans, I really like their players this week. The Titans are still alive (barely) in the AFC playoff hunt, and they need a win Sunday to keep their postseason hopes afloat.

Chris Johnson is hobbled by an ankle injury, which makes him a risky play in Week 17. Make sure you watch his status as game day approaches.

Nate Washington and Jared Cook are solid starts this week for Tennessee, and Matt Hasselbeck isn't too bad if you need a quarterback.

I also like the Titans D/ST this week against a Houston lineup that will include several back-ups.

Game time is set for noon (CST)

Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) at Denver Broncos (8-7)

13 of 16

This game is simple for fantasy owners: Play all of your regular players from these two teams.

Denver has everything to play for in this game. A win by them, and they wrap up the fourth seed on the AFC playoffs.

I recommend starting Tim Tebow, Willis McGahee, Demaryius Thomas, Denver D/ST and Matt Prater. Those guys are all guaranteed to play a full game.

As for the Chiefs, they have an opportunity to play spolier and possibly knock Denver out of the playoff picture.

Kyle Orton, the former Bronco, now leads the Chiefs offense and would like nothing more than to end Denver's season.

Orton can be an option at quarterback if you're desperate this week. As for the rest of the Chiefs, the only player I would consider to be a solid start is Dwayne Bowe.  

Game time is set for 3:15 p.m. (CST)

New York Jets (8-7) at Miami Dolphins (5-10)

14 of 16

The Jets still have a chance to make the playoffs in the AFC, so expect all of their players to play a full game.

The Jets have been a hard fantasy team to figure out, but they have some good options in Week 17. I would recommend starting the Jets D/ST, Shonn Greene, Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress.

As for Mark Sanchez, he's a wild card that could put up solid numbers in this very meaningful game. Sanchez is under an intense amount of scrutiny right now, and he really needs a good game to silence the skeptics.

I would take a long look at starting Sanchez this week against the Dolphins.

As for the Dolphins, they're playing for pride and roster spots. Brandon Marshall is a good start this week, even going against Darrelle Revis.

The Dolphins D/ST is also a nice option against the turnover-prone Jets offense.

I would be extremely cautious about starting Matt Moore this week. I know he threw for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns last week, but that came against a weak New England Patriots secondary.

In Week 6, the Jets held Moore to 204 passing yards and zero touchdowns. Keep Moore on your bench this week.  

Game time is set for noon (CST).

San Diego Chargers (7-8) at Oakland Raiders (8-7)

15 of 16

The Raiders need to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive.

A loss by Denver and a win by Oakland means the Raiders are the four seed in the AFC playoffs. Both Oakland and Denver games are at 3:15 p.m. (CST), so the Raiders will be playing their starters this entire game.

There are several good fantasy options in this game on the Raiders side.

Carson Palmer has struggled recently, but he's a solid start this week against a Chargers defense that surrendered 373 passing yards and three touchdowns to Matthew Stafford in Week 16. I would take a long look at giving Palmer the nod this week.

Michael Bush is a must start, and Darius Heyward-Bey is also another very good option. Denarius Moore is another guys that could have success against a Chargers team that isn't playing for anything.

I also like the Raiders D/ST against the turnover prone Chargers offense.

As for the Chargers, they are a mess. Head coach Norv Turner is likely coaching his final game on Sunday, and the team is playing with very little inspiration.

I would strongly consider benching your Chargers starters this game.

After watching them get destroyed by the Lions in Week 16, I get the sense that this Chargers team has already packed it in for the year.

Game time is set for 3:15 p.m.

Indianapolis Colts (2-13) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11)

16 of 16

This game is hardly a meaningless football game.

If the Colts lose, they wrap up the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and the likely draft rights to Andrew Luck.

However, the Colts come into this game on a winning streak after defeating the Houston Texans in Week 16.

The Colts will not lay down in this game because many of the players are playing for roster sports and contracts for next year.

With that said, I don't feel confident recommending you start anyone on their roster this week.

As for the Jaguars, they come into this game reeling. Losers of six of their last seven, the Jags just want this season to end.

The only player you should be starting from this game is Maurice Jones-Drew, and he's a must start.

Jones-Drew needs 136 yards to break Fred Taylor's single-season rushing record of 1,572 yards.

Look for Jones-Drew to get plenty of carries and a ton of yards against a weak Colts run defense.

Game time is set for noon (CST).    

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