NFL Playoff Scenarios: Projecting the Packers' Road to Indianapolis

They may not be going undefeated this season, but one thing most of us can agree on is that the Green Bay Packers are the team to beat in the NFC this year.

It helps that the Packers have a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. All they have to do is win two games at home, and they'll be headed to Indianapolis for Super Bowl XLVI.

But who will the Packers have to beat to make it to the Super Bowl?

Well, I don't have a crystal ball, but I do have a couple educated guesses. Let's take a look.

Wild-Card Round

If the playoffs started today, the NFC wild-card matchups would be the Atlanta Falcons at the New Orleans Saints and the Detroit Lions at the New York Giants.

I don't think these matchups are going to hold. The Falcons finish the season at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Lions finish the season at Green Bay. The Packers have nothing left to play for, but I still anticipate them beating the Lions, and I anticipate the Falcons beating the Bucs.

I think the Saints and Giants are going to stay right where they are, though. The Giants should be able to beat the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17 to earn the NFC East crown, and the Saints won't be able to grab the No. 2 seed from the San Francisco 49ers.

If so, the matchups will change only slightly. The Lions would play at the Saints, and the Falcons would play at the Giants.

In this case, the Saints would handle the Lions with little difficulty, and I would pick the Falcons to beat the Giants. It's true that you never know with the Falcons, but the Giants just aren't a very strong team.

Divisional Round

Once the Packers are ready to play again in the divisional round, they will host the lowest surviving seed in the NFC. 

In this scenario, that would be the fifth-seeded Falcons. It would be a rematch of last year's divisional round blowout, except in Green Bay instead of Atlanta.

If the Packers don't beat the Falcons in a route, it would be a monumental upset. I will reiterate that the Falcons are a good team, but I will also reiterate that you just can't rely on them. They have a way of crumbling against superior opponents, and the Packers are the most superior opponent the NFL has to offer.

I would be surprised if the Packers destroyed the Falcons as badly as they did in last year's playoffs, but they would still win.

I would also pick the Saints to beat the 49ers at Candlestick Park. The 49ers would give the Saints a run for their money, but they don't have enough offense to hang with Drew Brees and New Orleans' offense. He would be able to succeed against the 49ers' defense, which excels against the run more than it excels against the pass.

NFC Championship Game

If the Packers and Saints both survive the divisional round, they will meet up at Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game. 

As you no doubt recall, the Packers and Saints opened the 2011 season at Lambeau Field, and the game went down to the last play. The Packers looked like the better team for the bulk of the proceedings, but the Saints stuck around and nearly won the game.

The rematch would be another instant classic, but I would still pick the Packers to win. Aaron Rodgers is a slightly better quarterback than Drew Brees, and I'll wager that Rodgers has more weapons around him. I'll also wager that Green Bay's defense is stronger than New Orleans' defense.

If and when the Packers win, they would be on their way to Lucas Oil Stadium for the Super Bowl.

As for who they'll play, well, that's another matter for another day.