NFL Playoff Predictions: One Break Each Contender Will Need to Win a Super Bowl

No team in the NFL is perfect.

Just ask the Green Bay Packers after their humbling 19-14 defeat to the now 6-8 Kansas City Chiefs. After starting the season 13-0, the Packers traveled into Arrowhead with the expectation that they'd leave 14-0.

The only problem is, that didn't happen.

In a game in which they trailed for just about the entire game while seeing quarterback Aaron Rodgers struggle for the first time all season by completing less than 50 percent of his passes, the Packers just never really gained an advantage over the Kyle Orton-led Chiefs.

How the Chiefs were able to perfect a defensive game plan that was able to stop the Packers' high-powered offense was a work of art. There is no doubt that teams around the NFL will be studying tape of this game in order to hopefully gain an advantage over the defending Super Bowl champions.

It's hard to find a team in the NFL that doesn't have some sort of weakness. The Packers were a perfect example of this statement.

If an NFL team expects to win a Super Bowl, they sometimes have to receive lucky breaks.

Here are 12 playoff contenders and the lucky break they'll need in order to win the Super Bowl this year.

New England Patriots

Lucky break they'll need: Not playing an experienced, fast-paced 3-4 defense in the playoffs. Example? Ravens and Steelers.

The Patriots don't have a good defense.

They're not terrible when it comes to points per game given up, ranking 14th in the NFL.

They do however, give up nearly 310 yards through the air per game, which would be the most in NFL history if that stat holds up through the end of the season.

New England is a team largely held together by Tom Brady. If Brady falters, this team falters. This has been the case over the last two seasons.

The mystique of the Patriots has worn off in recent years, as New England has lost both of their first playoff games the last two years in Foxboro.

There was the beat-down vs. Baltimore in 2009. Then there was the divisional playoff stinger vs. the Jets in 2010 after Brady's masterful MVP season.

What did those two teams have in common? They were both 3-4 defenses that had experienced playmakers that had a penchant for blitz packages and turnovers.

The Pats don't have an amazing running game, and they have a high dependency upon Brady to do it all for them.

The only problem is that it takes an entire team in the NFL to win a Super Bowl. The Patriots might have a problem doing so if they run into a team such as Baltimore or Pittsburgh.

Houston Texans

Lucky break they'll need: Somehow avoiding a high-powered offense.

When I say high-powered offense, I mean teams like the Saints, Packers and Patriots.

Those are the only truly high-powered offenses in the NFL.

The Texans are a team currently led by TJ Yates. And even though Yates hasn't been terrible, he certainly hasn't shown that he has enough to put the Texans over the top as Super Bowl champions.

Houston has a stifling defense and run game, led by coordinator Wade Phillips and running backs Arian Foster and Ben Tate.

Their problem is, if they are to get into a shootout with an elite team, they are doomed.

Look at what happened against a below-average team like the Panthers when they fell behind early. They were done.

In this league, where quarterbacks such as Rodgers, Brees and Brady can be unstoppable, sometimes having one of the best defenses is just not good enough anymore.

You need a quarterback yourself.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Lucky break they'll need: Keeping Ben Roethlisberger healthy.

This is a team that is just built to win a Super Bowl every year. 2011 is no different.

In a year where the Steelers have been overshadowed by the Patriots, Texans and Ravens, the Steelers quietly have the second-best record in all of the AFC as of this writing.

For a team that has lost twice to the Ravens, that's an accomplishment.

Pittsburgh still has the same type of attack we've become accustomed to over the years.

Ground-and-pound, hard-hitting defense, play-action fake from Roethlisberger to Wallace.

The only difference is the Steelers are a year older and their mystique has also worn off after losing to the Ravens not once, but twice this year.

Roethlisberger is currently hobbled, and if he were to be out for any period of time, Charlie Batch might have to step in to start for him.

That might be fine if you're going through a four-game regular season stretch, as the Steelers did in the beginning of 2010.

However, if you expect to win a championship, you need Roethlisberger under center.

Denver Broncos

Lucky break they'll need: Not getting into a shootout.

This team is built to win low-scoring games.

When the defense comes out to the play and doesn't lay an egg as they did against the Patriots on Sunday in their 41-23 loss, this team is simply dangerous.

However, if this team gets into a track meet against an elite team with an elite passer, it doesn't bode well for the Broncos.

The Broncos are simply not an elite team.

Their defense is strong, but when matched up against an elite quarterback such as Rodgers or Brady, they're no match.

I don't care how many sacks Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil have on the season. This defense is not built to handle elite quarterbacks.

Can it look impressive against the likes of Mark Sanchez, Matt Moore and Caleb Hanie? Sure.

But when it comes to adjusting on the fly against the elite quarterbacks, they stand no chance.

Baltimore Ravens

Lucky break they'll need: Not beating themselves.

A huge problem that the Ravens have is they seem to beat all of the big teams.

They've beaten the Steelers twice and made the second-best team in the NFC in the Niners look like absolute jokes on Thanksgiving.

Then comes the games against mediocre opponents. The Titans, the Seahawks and the Chargers.

They lost every single one of those games against 7-7 teams. They were favored in every single one of them.

This team has an Achilles Heel when it comes to games against opponents in which they're favored. They come out to play against their longtime tormentor the Steelers, but in games in which they are clearly the better team on paper, they lay a huge egg.

The key in the postseason?

Not losing to themselves.

New York Jets

Lucky break they'll need: Somehow find a running game and an elite defense again.

Yes, after getting killed by about 30 points, the Jets still control their own destiny when it comes to making it to the playoffs.

This team can only win a Super Bowl if somehow, someway, they establish their ingredient for success over the last couple of years—which is defense and running the football.

Sanchez can't carry a team.

Sanchez may have games in which he throws for four touchdown passes and looks like Tom Brady Jr., but he simply isn't a good enough passer to carry an offense. He needs help. A lot of it.

If the Jets are to make a surprise run at the Super Bowl, they need to gain momentum over the last two weeks and the postseason by establishing the ground-and-pound.

Green Bay Packers

Lucky break they'll need: They don't need one.

This team just lost 19-14 to the Kansas City Chiefs for their first loss of the season.

And you know what? They still don't need any breaks in order to win the Super Bowl.

They are still by far the best team in the NFL.

They have the best quarterback in the NFL and a nearly-unstoppable passing game.

The defense leaves a lot to be desired but steps up when it needs to. They lead the league in forced turnovers.

Green Bay lost for the first time in one full calendar year on Sunday. Don't be shocked if they don't lose for another two months.

San Francisco 49ers

Lucky break they'll need: Avoid playing Packers/Saints; make sure to get first-round bye.

The most vulnerable elite team not named the Texans are easily the Niners.

This is a team that has overachieved due to the masterful job of Jim Harbaugh.

Alex Smith takes extreme care of the ball because he's rarely forced to win games and to throw the ball deep. Frank Gore is an absolute beast. The defense takes care of business.

But if this team is to have any chance at a Super Bowl, they have to get a first-round bye. This team is simply not good enough to defeat New Orleans or Green Bay outside of the confines of San Francisco.

Hell, the Niners would likely lose to the Saints and Packers even if they were to play them at home.

Let's just say the Niners need a lot more than just one or two breaks in order to win the Super Bowl in 2011.

New Orleans Saints

Lucky break they'll need: Don't play the Packers at Lambeau.

This team is never overly impressive in the run game or on defense.

They never dominate teams by ground-and-pound.

They rarely shut down an opposing offense.

But they're always elite.

Why?

Because of Drew Brees.

Brees is a machine. He threw five touchdowns against Minnesota on Sunday, and if it weren't for Rodgers' amazing season, Brees would be having a season for the ages.

He will break the passing yardage record. He will likely lead the Saints to a first-round bye.

So what is the issue at hand?

If New Orleans, a dome team, is to play Green Bay in frigid Wisconsin in January, I simply don't like the Saints' chances.

As good as Brees is at heaving a football, it is simply hard to beat Mother Nature.

Dallas Cowboys

Lucky break they'll need: Avoid mental errors.

This team is the exact opposite of the Denver Broncos late in games.

They blow double-digit leads in the fourth quarter against teams like the Jets and Giants.

They mismanage the clock and field in late-game field goal situations as the game against Arizona proves.

This team has a history of mentally breaking down.

Fumbled snap for the game-winning field goal vs. Seattle in the 2006 playoffs. One-and-done in 2007 playoffs after hosting a playoff game. 2008 season finale beat-down at the hands of the Eagles for a playoff spot.

They've mentally broken down in 2011 numerous times, too.

Can they avoid doing so in the postseason?

Only time will tell.

Atlanta Falcons

Lucky break they'll need: Stay true to their identity.

Look, Matt Ryan is a good quarterback.

But he is not a quarterback that can carry an offense.

He is not Peyton Manning. He is not Brady. He is not Brees. He is not Rodgers.

He is a quarterback who can perfectly manage an offense, take care of the football and make excellent adjustments at the line of scrimmage on the pre-snap read.

But this team succeeds when it runs the football with Michael Turner.

This organization has the urge to be a vertical-passing team at times because of the receivers that they have such as Roddy White and Julio Jones.

They also overrate the ability of Ryan at times, although he has shown he is not at that level just yet, and probably never will be.

If this team is to do damage in January, they need to establish their identity.

That's establishing the run game to set up the pass.

Not the other way around.

Detroit Lions

Lucky break they'll need: Stay disciplined.

You would think that an NFL team full of adults and professionals would have an easier time playing disciplined football, right?

Not the case for the Detroit Lions.

This is a team every bit as good as their record, if not better.

They can compete with the best teams in the NFL, as proven by their losses to the Packers and Saints.

Their main issue is avoiding penalties and suspensions.

Their best player, Ndamukong Suh, was suspended for two games for blatantly stomping on a Packers offensive lineman on Thanksgiving.

Penalties against the Packers and Saints killed their momentum and chances of winning.

If this team is to make a run as the Packers did in 2010 as a Wild Card, they're going to have to remain disciplined.

Or they can feel free to stay at home for good.