Big Ten in the Bowls: How Will the Conference Finish?

If you want an explanation for why the Big Ten is largely viewed as a second-tier football conference outside of the Midwest, look no farther than the Big Ten's recent history during bowl season.

Ohio State was the last (cough, only) Big Ten team to play for the BCS national championship, and the last two trips in 2006 and 2007 both ended the same way: with Ohio State lying splayed on the turf as an SEC team literally did whatever it wanted en route to a big victory.

The Buckeyes aren't the only culprit, however.  Michigan went to three Rose Bowls in the last 10 years and was handily beaten in all three.  Penn State lost its last Rose Bowl to USC.

Last year, Wisconsin went to the Rose Bowl after putting together the most impressive season of any team in the Big Ten only to lose to TCU.  Illinois last trip to the Rose Bowl ended even worse at the hands of USC.

Michigan State's resurgence under Mark Dantonio has been accompanied by an 0-4 record in bowl games. Northwestern hasn't won a bowl game since the 40s.

If the Big Ten wants to earn back the kind of national respect, that will translate into higher rankings—and a potentially greater opportunity to play for the BCS championship in the future—it's going to need to perform better all through bowl season and especially in the premiere bowls.

What are the chances the Big Ten puts together an impressive record in bowl games this year?  

Let's break down each bowl matchup from the most likely loss to the most likely win and see just how close the Big Ten is to making a statement this winter.

Insight Bowl (Dec. 30)

Iowa vs. Oklahoma, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN

Iowa (7-5)

Total Offense/Defense - 379 ypg/387ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 28.6 ppg/23.3 ppg

Best Win - Michigan

Worst Loss - Minnesota

Oklahoma (9-3)

Total Offense/Defense - 532 ypg/383 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 40.3 ppg/22.8 ppg

Best Win - Kansas

Worst Loss - Texas Tech

The Hawkeyes have a good recent history in bowl games.  This is the year that ends.

Oklahoma started the season as the top-ranked team, and outside of its three losses, it looked like an upper-echelon team.  The Sooner offense was once again a dominant unit—only scoring below 30 points three times all season (twice in victories)—and the defense held Florida State, Texas, Tulsa and Kansas State below 20 points.

That the Sooners are in the Insight Bowl is as close to worst case scenario as possible. Iowa's placement feels just about right.The Hawkeyes lost got blown out (MSU), shut down (Penn State, Nebraska) and upset (Iowa State, Minnesota) on the way to a disappointing 7-5 season.  Both the offense and defense are average at best, and Iowa has only scored more than 31 points against two FBS teams.

Odds are this one isn't close.

Prediction - Loss

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas (Dec. 31)

Northwestern vs. Texas A&M, noon ET, ESPN

Northwestern (6-6)

Total Offense/Defense - 432 ypg/407 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 29.5 ppg/27.3 ppg

Best Win - Nebraska

Worst Loss - Army

Texas A&M (6-6)

Total Offense/Defense - 497 ypg/386 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 38.6 ppg/28.7 ppg

Best Win - Baylor

Worst Loss - Texas

Not all 6-6 records are created equal. Texas A&M may have had an incredibly disappointing season, but when you look over the losses that the team suffered, it isn't hard to see why things fell the way they did.  

The Aggies lost to six FBS teams with winning records, five of which ended the year ranked in the top 25.  Two of the losses came in overtime, one came on a field goal as time expired and two more were epic second-half collapses to eventual top 10 teams.

Northwestern, on the other hand, lost five straight games to the likes of Army, Illinois and Iowa, and the Wildcats only have one win over a bowl team (Nebraska).

The Aggies may be in the heat of a coaching transition, but there's enough firepower to more than bury Northwestern.

Prediction - Loss

Rose Bowl (Jan. 2)

Wisconsin vs. Oregon, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN

Wisconsin (11-2)

Total Offense/Defense - 466 ypg/293ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 44.6 ppg/17 ppg

Best Win - Nebraska, Michigan State

Worst Loss - Ohio State

Oregon (11-2)

Total Offense/Defense - 515 ypg/381 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 46.2 ppg/23.6 ppg

Best Win - Stanford

Worst Loss - USC

Both these teams have had the good fortune to play weaker schedules.  Outside of Oregon's games against LSU, USC and Stanford, the Ducks have largely missed winning teams. Wisconsin's toughest games were against Michigan State (twice) and Nebraska.

While this would seem to predict an even matchup, one major problem Wisconsin has had this year has been dealing with good offensive teams.  Outside of a win at home against Nebraska in the opening week of Big Ten play, the Badgers haven't faced any particularly dangerous offenses.  

In fact, Michigan State and Ohio State—both with solid athleticism at the skill positions—put up better than 30 points.

Oregon may have not seen an offense as good as Wisconsin (although USC and Stanford are both talented), but the Badgers haven't seen anything close to the firepower Oregon has at its disposal.

If the game turns into a shootout, Oregon could be tough to overcome.

Prediction - Lean Loss

Outback Bowl (Jan. 2)

Michigan State vs. Georgia, 1 p.m. ET, ABC

Michigan State (10-3)

Total Offense/Defense - 390 ypg/272 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 30.8 ppg/17.5 ppg

Best Win - Michigan, Wisconsin

Worst Loss -Notre Dame

Georgia (10-3)

Total Offense/Defense - 413 ypg/268 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 32.2 ppg/19.6 ppg

Best Win - Auburn

Worst Loss - South Carolina

If the national championship game doesn't have enough defense for you, be sure to tune into the Outback Bowl.

Both Georgia and Michigan State are solidly top-10 defensive teams (the lowest defensive ranking is Georgia's 17th in scoring defense and Michigan State's 12th in rushing defense). Both of these teams have made a habit of making other teams' miserable all year.

Both teams also play some pretty good offense.  Georgia is in the top 40 in the country in all four major offensive rankings, and Michigan State has scored more than 28 points 10 times this year.

This should be a hard hitting, evenly matched game between two teams that pride themselves on punishing defense.  It should also be a low-scoring affair that favors the more balanced Bulldogs.

Prediction - Lean Loss 

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (Dec. 31)

Illinois vs. UCLA, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Illinois (6-6)

Total Offense/Defense - 358 ypg/291 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 22.8 ppg/20.1 ppg

Best Win - Arizona State

Worst Loss - Minnesota

UCLA (6-7)

Total Offense/Defense - 388 ypg/424 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 23.7 ppg/32.2

Best Win - Arizona State

Worst Loss - Arizona

Sometimes, it comes down to who doesn't lose the game rather than who wins it.

Illinois has been losing games at an impressive rate.  A fast 6-0 start was followed by a painful 0-6 slide that saw the Illini fail to score more than 17 points in any game.  Against Ohio State, Purdue, Penn State and Wisconsin, the Illini failed to score in the first half.

Against Wisconsin, Illinois failed to take advantage of a big halftime lead.  Against Minnesota, Illinois just rolled over and died.  No team played worse over the second half of the season than Illinois.

UCLA's failure has been more evenly spread out.  There was a close loss to Houston to open the year, then blowouts against Texas, Stanford, Arizona (a team that had just fired its head coach), Utah and USC, before making the first half of the Pac-12 championship game just interesting enough to confuse everyone who had watched any UCLA football this year.

There isn't much to say either way.  Illinois lost six games with a complete offensive meltdown.  UCLA just got pushed around.  This one comes down to which team doesn't lose.  The way both have played this year, it could take a few overtimes to find out.  Please God, spare us.

Prediction - Toss up 

Capital One Bowl (Jan. 2)

Nebraska vs. South Carolina, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN

Nebraska (9-3)

Total Offense/Defense - 390 ypg/350 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 30.5 ppg/22.8 ppg

Best Win - Michigan State

Worst Loss - Northwestern

South Carolina (10-2)

Total Offense/Defense - 375 ypg/268 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 30.1 ppg/18.8 ppg

Best Win - Georgia

Worst Loss - Auburn

South Carolina enters the Capital One bowl minus its preseason starter at quarterback and the conference's returning rushing leader.  The Gamecocks are 10-2 anyway.

Of course, playing the SEC East while avoiding Alabama and LSU helps.  South Carolina did most of its damage on defense this year with one of the best pass defenses in the nation.  This helped South Carolina notch wins against Clemson and Georgia.  However, it wasn't enough to stop Arkansas from putting up 44 points.

Nebraska, on the other hand, outlasted Penn State and Ohio State and absolutely abused Legends Division winner Michigan State.  However, the Huskers got beat up by both Michigan and Wisconsin.

Nebraska has questions on defense that South Carolina looks incapable of exploiting, and Nebraska's offense is predicated on a running game which is the weakest link of the South Carolina defense.

Prediction - Lean Win

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl (Jan. 2)

Ohio State vs. Florida, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Ohio State (6-6)

Total Offense/Defense - 319 ypg/328 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 25.1 ppg/20.8 ppg

Best Win - Wisconsin

Worst Loss - Purdue

Florida (6-6)

Total Offense/Defense - 334 ypg/299 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 25.6 ppg/20.6 ppg

Best Win - Vanderbilt

Worst Loss - Florida State

These two teams have more than a certain coach in common.  Both are very good defensive teams, and both were absolutely abysmal on offense for most of the season.

Florida, in the first year under Will Muschamp, was downright incapable on offense against almost everyone.  In a winless October, Florida scored 10, 11, 6 and 20 points.  If it weren't for games against Furman, Kentucky and FAU Florida might be worse than 72nd in the nation in scoring offense.

Ohio State looked worse for a while, but that may have just been the Bauserman effect.  The Buckeyes were in the bottom five in pass offense on the year but came alive to score 34 against Michigan, 33 against Wisconsin and 27 against Nebraska.

While both of these teams have struggled, Ohio State should have enough tricks up its sleeve to pull out a win.

Prediction - Lean Win

TicketCity Bowl (Jan. 2)

Penn State vs. Houston, noon ET, ESPNU

Penn State (9-3)

Total Offense/Defense - 345 ypg/300 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 19.8 ppg/15.7

Best Win - Iowa

Worst Loss - Nebraska

Houston (12-1)

Total Offense/Defense - 599 ypg/386 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 50.8 ppg/23.1 ppg

Best Win - Tulsa

Worst Loss - Southern Miss

The vast majority of Houston's schedule doesn't matter.  Yeah, sure Houston won 12 straight games to start the season.  Those games happened to be against a bunch of C-USA teams (and UCLA).  The one game that matters—a loss to Southern Mississippi—is important as much for how Houston was beat as it is what Houston lost.  The Cougars were beat up on defense and taken advantage of on special teams.

This just so happens to be how Penn State wins games this year.  The Nittany Lions were good enough on defense to shield a bad tandem at quarterback while relying on a solid run game.

Houston hasn't seen a defense as good as Penn State's.

Prediction - Win

Sugar Bowl (Jan. 3)

Michigan vs. Virginia Tech, Jan. 3, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Michigan (10-2)

Total Offense/Defense - 423 ypg/317 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 34.2 ppg/17.2 ppg

Best Win - Nebraska

Worst Loss - Iowa

Virginia Tech (11-2)

Total Offense/Defense - 415 ypg/313 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 28.5 ppg/17.2 ppg

Best Win - Georgia Tech

Worst Loss - Clemson (twice)

Michigan is hoping to complete its 2011 turnaround with a BCS bowl win.  Virginia Tech is hoping to gain some respect at all with one.

The Hokies have avoided pretty much any team worth anything.  Most of the ACC was weak this year outside of the Clemson team that beat Virginia Tech handily—and twice.  The Hokies still rely on a strong defense, but one that depends too much on safeties to make tackles.

Michigan's defensive revival coupled with the growing comfort of Denard Robinson in Al Borges' offense should make for a solid Wolverine advantage.

Prediction - Win

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl (Dec. 27)

Purdue vs. Western Michigan, 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Purdue (6-6)

Total Offense/Defense - 371 ypg/388 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 26.1 ppg/26.4 ppg

Best Win - Ohio State

Worst Loss - Rice

Western Michigan (7-5)

Total Offense/Defense - 456 ypg/434 ypg

Scoring Offense/Defense - 35.6 ppg/28.0 ppg

Best Win - Ball State

Worst Loss - Eastern Michigan

The Broncos enter the game with a very intriguing one-two punch through the air in Alex Carder and Jordan White.  Carder is seventh in the nation in total offense and 23rd in pass efficiency while White is averaging over 10 catches a game for 137 yards.  Outside that, Purdue can't run the ball and struggles to defend.

Purdue has done just enough to restore some glimmer of hope in Danny Hope's tenure there.  Six wins, a bowl game and an upset win over Ohio State will do that.  The Boilermakers have enough offensive and defensive player makers to put this game out of reach early.  

Prediction - Win

Total count:

Win: 3

Lean Win: 2

Toss up: 1

Lean Loss: 2

Loss: 2

If the Big Ten splits the games like it's expected, a .500 finish is pretty much assured. However, a strong showing by the two Big Ten conference championship game participants could give the Big Ten a big boost.

Seven or eight wins out of 10 would go a long way toward repairing the conference's broken image.  This year's bowl season certainly sets that up as an opportunity.  However, it won't be easy.