NFL Power Rankings Week 15

What is a power ranking?

It seems like an obvious question, but the way the concept has been implemented in recent times has begged for an analysis of the deeper logic behind the system.

The NFL is an ever-changing landscape. This is clear from the year-to-year shifts in record for teams that happens nearly every year (case in point: The 2007 Miami Dolphins finished 1-15, while the 2008 Miami Dolphins finished 11-5).

This fickle nature can be seen on an even lower level, with such swings happening each and every week. One need look no further than this season's game between the St. Louis Rams and the New Orleans Saints for the perfect example of this phenomenon.

I believe that it is this game-to-game fluidity that the power rankings are looking to capture: a ranking of how good the teams have been in their past few games.

A higher ranking for a team should not indicate that a team is "better," but rather that they have played better for a small amount of time. The world of soccer refers to this difference as "class" vs. "form":  The power rankings should indicate a team's form or how well they have been living up to their potential recently, rather than their class, or how good the team has been and their total potential.

For too long, this distinction has been blurred, with the rankings seemingly based first on record and then on form only to break ties. Just look at ESPN's power rankings this week, where only one team (the Kansas City Chiefs) is out of order based on their record.

What is the point of such a ranking? Anyone can read the standings.

Ahead will be my opinion of how all 32 teams rank at this particular moment in time. I will go out on a few limbs; there will be some teams higher and lower than what their records indicate and some different than their abilities.

I'm sure there will be a lot of disagreement. In fact, I embrace it. After all, isn't that what this kind of list is supposed to be about?

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9)

It's been a long time since the Buccaneers won four out of five and got to 4-2. In fact, that was seven straight losses ago.

The injury to Josh Freeman was a blow, but it is not enough to explain blow-out losses to poor teams like the Carolina Panthers and the Jacksonville Jaguars the past two weeks.

This past game's loss to the Jags clinched the Buccaneers the bottom spot. It's not so much that they lost to the defensive stalwart Jaguars, but more the way they lost: The Jaguars scored 41 points, an outburst that more than doubled their inept offense's best output of the season. In fact, they scored those 41 points unanswered after the Bucs opened the game 14-0.

With a winless team still out there, it is quite impressive that the Bucs were able to nab this bottom spot.

31. St. Louis Rams (2-11)

What has happened to the Rams offense?

Two weeks ago, they were unable to score a point against the San Francisco 49ers. Granted, that is one of the stingiest defenses in the league.

However, even on Monday night, the Rams couldn't find a way into the end zone against the Seahawks until the fourth quarter when the result had been decided.

Sure, they have experienced a slew of costly injuries and have had a few tough road games in a row, but the Rams are playing some horrendous ball recently.

30. Indianapolis Colts (0-13)

It is no longer a possibility; it has become likely that the Colts will become the second team ever to finish a 16-game season without a win.

It is the competition they have faced and their game efforts against these teams that pushed the Colts up in this week's rankings.

Two weeks ago, the Colts found themselves trailing the Patriots 31-3 entering the fourth quarter before Dan Orlovsky bravely rallied them for a very respectable 31-24 loss. Against a fantastic Ravens team, the Colts only lost by 14.

Maybe these scores were a little skewed by garbage time Colt scores; however, with the Bucs' and Rams' losses in the same time frame, it makes one wonder what the scoreline might have been had they been in the Colts' situation.

29. Buffalo Bills (5-8)

How good of a move is that huge contract the Bills gave Fitzpatrick looking like now?

Yes, the entire team has been struggling, and the Harvard man has still been showing signs of being a capable quarterback in the midst of this six-game losing streak.

However, that last loss against the Chargers did not look so good for either Fitzpatrick (13-of-34, 0 TD, 2 INT) or the team as a whole (37-10 loss).

Perhaps it was a result of a bunch of heartbreaking losses in a row, but this team that looked so full of character earlier in the season looks to be out of answers at this point.

28. Chicago Bears (7-6)

Remember when Caleb Hanie looked pretty good in relief of Jay Cutler in the NFC Championship game in January?

What happened to that guy?

Since Cutler broke his thumb a few weeks ago, the offense has fallen apart completely. The additional loss of Matt Forte has sent this sure playoff season into free fall.

Yes, the Bears have a great defense that can keep them in games, but I don't see them being able to actually pull one off.

27. Kansas City Chiefs (5-8)

For the record, I strongly disagree with the firing of Todd Haley.

Remember, this is a playoff team from last year who has had to deal with: 1) the season-long absence of their star running back, Jamaal Charles, who was second in the league with 1,400-plus yards last season, 2) the loss of their best defensive player, Eric Berry and 3) the sporadic loss of their quarterback, Matt Cassel, whose injury from preseason rendered him a shadow of his normal self when he actually played.

Find me a team that can handle losses like that.

That being said, Tyler Palko's play has left much to be desired, and their loss to the Jets was pretty bad. However, I did like the resolve they showed against the Bears two weeks ago (although it should be noted that the Bears looked like they would've scored no more than six points against the air in that game).

26. Cleveland Browns (4-9)

The Browns came into the season with some high expectations.

The defense has lived up to their billing for the most part, giving up less than 20 points per game.

The offense has been a different story. Peyton Hillis has not shown up at all this season. And did anyone else notice that the offense looked immediately better Thursday when Seneca Wallace came in for a few plays after McCoy's concussion?

Their past two games may have been relatively close considering they were games against the Steelers and Ravens, and one can't expect much from any offense in such games, but the level of ineptness reached by the Browns in these two games seemed particularly high.

25. Minnesota Vikings (2-11)

Two weeks ago, Christian Ponder looked pretty good; sure, he threw the game-losing interception, but things like that seems to happen to those who play the Broncos these days.

Sunday, Joe Webb looked even better, leading what could have (and maybe should have, if you look at that picture) been the game-winning drive against the Lions.

This leads to a happy situation for Minnesota, having two decent options at this building phase.

While the offense is improving by leaps and bounds, the defense looks to have some catching up to do, especially in the secondary.

In addition, while the past two weeks may have made a fan optimistic for the future, they just amounted to two more tallies in the L column.

24. Oakland Raiders (7-6)

Sunday's loss to the Packers, while a steep blowout loss, was almost understandable given the offensive prowess of Aaron Rodgers' crew this year.

What is more disheartening is blowout loss suffered at the hands of the Miami Dolphins two weeks ago.

Carson Palmer hasn't panned out as well as was hoped, a clear demotion from Jason Campbell.

While the Raiders still have a mathematical chance at the playoffs, they will have to play much better to actually have a shot.

23. Carolina Panthers (4-9)

Statistically, the Panthers offense has shown promise, while the defense has fallen very short.

In the past four weeks, the Panthers have picked up two victories (precious this season) and kept games with the Falcons and Lions (in all likelihood the two wild cards) close.

Upon further examination, however, there is much more of a problem with this team.

In those two aforementioned losses, the Panthers took a 13-point lead into the half against the Lions and a 16-point lead into the half against the Falcons. The knee-jerk reaction for anyone may be that the defense let them down, but the offense had nothing to write home about in either second half, either: eight points against the Lions and zero against the Falcons.

Clearly, these are team letdowns, not mere defensive collapses.

22. Washington Redskins (4-9)

Is it time to question Mike Shanahan's personnel choices?

It's hard to imagine questioning a two-time Super Bowl champion, but the move to replace Rex Grossman with John Beck is seeming more and more curious.

Is Grossman the quarterback of the future? Probably not, but he certainly gives the 'Skins the best chance to win.

After the miserable failure that was the Beck experiment, Grossman has come back strong, bringing games with the Cowboys, Jets and Patriots down to the wire. He even won in Seattle, established as probably the best home crowd in football.

This may only account for a 1-3 record in four games, but it makes one wonder what might have been for the Redskins had they backed Grossman all the way through.

21. Miami Dolphins (4-9)

The Dolphins looked really good for a few weeks there.

Three weeks ago, the Dolphins had a heartbreaking loss to the Cowboys. When they followed it up with a blowout win against the Raiders, the Dolphins were crowned one of the best teams in the league over the past few weeks.

This past week's loss to the Eagles brought most down to Earth. After taking a nice lead in the game, the injury to Chris Long seemed to cut the Dolphins down to size, showing just how vulnerable this team can be to a key injury.

The firing of Tony Sparano cemented the decision to overhaul the team in the offseason.

20. Philadelphia Eagles (5-8)

Can you believe there are still whispers about the Eagles making the playoffs this season?

This nightmare of a season seems to be endless for Philadelphia. Vick's return in a comfortable win in Miami on Sunday, though, could just hint at a recovery that may save Andy Reid's job.

And with games against the Jets and Cowboys still remaining, the Eagles could just settle into the role of spoiler.

19. Dallas Cowboys (7-6)

The Cowboys seemed to have turned the corner and been on their way to the NFC East division crown.

Then, the past two weeks happened.

Two games with atrocious clock management at the end. Two games with game-tying/winning field goal chances at the end of regulation. Two makes ruled out by timeouts, two misses when it counted.

It's like "Groundhog Day" for the Cowboys, who are now in a fight for their playoff lives.

Surprisingly, the loss to the Cardinals two weeks ago was the much better of the two. Yes, the Cowboys had a chance to win at the end, but the Cardinals defense played fabulously for that entire game.

It's the Giants game that is a tough pill to swallow. With a chance to seal the division against your rival, you allow a 12-point lead with six minutes to go to evaporate?

Rob Ryan seems to be quite the farce.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9)

When the Jaguars released David Garrard before the season, it became quite clear that this would be a rebuilding year for them.

What we did not count on, though, was how well this defense would play, keeping them in some games that they had no business in. They even won some of those games (see the Ravens game).

It has been a rebuilding season for the offense, though, with Blaine Gabbert struggling to find points.

Two weeks ago, they got blown out by the Chargers and gave up the most points they have this season, but I'm willing to write that off to distractions caused by the impending firing of coach Jack Del Rio.

This past Sunday, after said distraction had passed, the Jags scored more than double the amount of points they had in any other game. If the team can produce similar point totals to go along with their defense, they could be a force next year.

Perhaps Jack Del Rio was more of a problem to the team near the end of his tenure.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)

The Bengals are a young team that has great potential.

That being said, the Bengals seemed to be a possible playoff team just a few weeks ago.

The loss of Leon Hall has hurt the team, which has lost four of the last five.

Their first two losses, seven-point losses to the Steelers and Ravens, were one thing.

Even their 35-7 blowout loss to the Steelers two weeks ago can be accepted as a very tough test that the team wasn't yet up to.

What is much more disturbing, however, is their loss to the Texans on Sunday. The Bengals had a six-point lead in the dying seconds before allowing a game-winning drive. This is a game Cincinnati probably would have won earlier in the season, let alone against a team with T.J Yates at quarterback.

16. Seattle Seahawks (6-7)

Show me a running back who has been running harder than Marshawn Lynch the past few weeks.

This can be seen through two 17-point victories in the past two games.

However, these games have come against questionable opponents, as they caught the Eagles without Vick and while DeSean Jackson was not trying and then played the anemic offense of the Rams.

Going back another week, they lost to the Redskins.

A win is a win, though, and the Seahawks' playoff hopes are still (barely) alive.

15. Detroit Lions (8-5)

The Lions have prided themselves on comeback wins this season.

On Sunday, they almost allowed one to the struggling Vikings.

Perhaps this was because of Ndamukong Suh's suspension, which has been lifted for this upcoming game.

However, steep losses to the Packers and Saints the two weeks prior to the Vikings game has put them in a tough position.

With the Raiders, Chargers and Packers remaining, the Lions must win two of the three games or risk letting a team sneak past them into the playoffs.

14. Arizona Cardinals (6-7)

Earlier in the season, the Cardinals were losing close games thanks to inconsistent offense and flimsy defense.

In more recent weeks, though, the appointment of defensive coordinator Ray Horton has looked like a much better signing. The defense has been miserly, limiting any chances the other team may have (two first downs for the 49ers in the second half on Sunday).

The offense has still been inconsistent, though. In fact, the defense seems to only allow points these days when put in a bad position by their offense.

Inconsistent offense may be attributed to Kevin Kolb's injuries, but John Skelton has stepped up adequately.

And Patrick Peterson has become the most electric punt returner except for Hester.

The Cardinals have begun to win those close games that were plaguing them earlier in the season. If they can win out, an unlikely trip to the playoffs may await.

13. Tennessee Titans (7-6)

The Titans have been a good surprise this year.

The defense gave the Saints all sorts of fits this past Sunday, but the loss has put them in a bit of a tight corner.

The Titans must win all three of their final games (at Indy, vs Jax, at Hou) to have a hope of the playoffs.

With Matt Hasselbeck injured, though, those three winnable games may be slightly harder than expected.

The good news: Chris Johnson is finally playing up to his potential, and the Titans have been finding ways to pull out close football games this year.

12. San Francisco 49ers (10-3)

The 49ers have been a great turn-around story this season and made Jim Harbaugh look like quite a genius.

However, while they have been defensive stalwarts, their offense has lacked punch for much of the season.

While they have been able to at least stay in each game, a quick analysis of their schedule may point to the possibility that they benefited from extremely easy opposition.

Their loss to the Cardinals this past week was the first time that the defense looked slightly vulnerable.

Was it a mirage? Perhaps, but only time will tell.

11. Atlanta Falcons (8-5)

Of the teams poised to make the playoffs this season, the Falcons are the least discussed. The way the playoffs have gone the past few seasons, this may be a good thing.

The Falcons have had a rough few weeks. They were stymied two weeks ago and lost to the T.J. Yates-led Texans. This past Sunday, they fell far behind the Panthers at halftime. They came back to win that game, but the feat is less impressive given the Panthers' games following a similar script all season.

The good news: With two of their last three games looking winnable (vs Jax, at NO, vs. TB) and the other wild-card chasers fading, the Falcons are, in all likelihood, a lock for the playoffs.

10. New York Jets (8-5)

Reports of the Jets' collapse, Rex Ryan's being overrated and Mark Sanchez's getting benched next season were greatly exaggerated.

Two straight relatively comfortable victories, albeit over the Redskins and Chiefs, have propelled the Jets into a position of power in the AFC playoff race.

The schedule to finish off the season is slightly daunting (at Phi, vs NYG, at Mia), but with the Bengals, Raiders and Titans all in trailing positions and their own play improving, the outlook is positive for the Jets' playoff hopes.

9. New York Giants (7-6)

The defense has looked anything but solid, and yet, they sit poised to win the NFC East and go to the playoffs.

Eli Manning has been playing out of his mind, willing his team into the game against the Packers and then to victory against the Cowboys.

The Giants may blow it from here on out, but if I were an NFL team, this is one team I would not want to face in the playoffs if they do make it.

8. San Diego Chargers (6-7)

A perfect example of why there is a power poll.

The San Diego Chargers have not played well this season.

For the past two games, though, they have looked like one of the best 10 teams in the league.

They scored 38 points against the Jaguars, more than any team had scored against that defense to that point.

On Sunday, they embarrassed the Bills with incredible defense, allowing a touchdown only on a fumble recovery.

It is probably a case of too little too late for San Diego, but with three games left against teams that are either fighting for a playoff spot or a playoff seed (vs Bal, at Det, at Oak), they have a great chance to play spoiler. Three times, in fact.

7. Denver Broncos (8-5)

There is no denying that something magical going on in Denver.

They are winning as much as any team possibly can as of late.

These wins may not be the most impressive wins, but a win's a win.

Is it all because of Tim Tebow?

Well, in a word, yes.

Thirty-second ranked defense with Kyle Orton, now a miserly defense; a poor running game with Kyle Orton, now an efficient running offense.

If the Broncos can overcome the Patriots on Sunday, what won't they be able to do?

6. New England Patriots (10-3)

Yes, the Patriots are one of the best teams in the league talent-wise.

However, after two close call wins against the likes of the Colts and the Redskins, it is not looking as good for the Pats.

Add on the fight between Brady and his offensive coordinator and that they are going on a trip to Mile High Stadium to face that magical team, the Patriots may need to up their play to get a bye in the first round of the playoffs.

5. Houston Texans (10-3)

If the season were to end right now, the Houston Texans would be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

The defense has been much improved, and the team has shown incredible resolve by overcoming injuries to Matt Schaub, Matt Leinart, Andre Johnson, and Mario Williams en route to a 10-3 record.

They have been looking less and less convincing in their victories as of late, though.  In addition, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips' departure for health reasons today may be a blow from which they cannot recover.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)

The Steelers have been winning comfortably recently.

However, with Roethlisberger suffering from an ankle injury and James Harrison suspended for the Monday night game against the 49ers, they are in a tough spot.

3. New Orleans Saints (10-3)

The Saints may have only barely beat the Titans, but two straight routs of the Lions and Giants prior to that were impressive.

Brees is playing extremely well, but the question is how well the defense will hold up in the playoffs, especially if they can't secure a bye.

2. Green Bay Packers (13-0)

Yes, they are undefeated.

Yes, they will probably finish that way.

Yes, they are coming off a complete rout of the Raiders.

But they have enjoyed a slightly easier schedule than the first-ranked team and had a game come down to the wire just a week ago.

1. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)

They have beaten the Steelers twice this season.

They are coming off three comfortable victories, one against an established 49er team without defensive captain Ray Lewis.

The Ravens are getting poised for a deep playoff run.