2008 Holiday Bowl: Watch Out Scoreboard, Here They Come!

Happy Holidays to everyone out there in the interweb. I do apologize that this game preview is at the last minute, but given my adventures trying to make it back home to Portland, it is something of a minor miracle that I am writing this from my parents' house rather than the San Francisco airport terminal.

This year’s Holiday Bowl has all the makings of a classic shootout. Both the Oregon Ducks and the Oklahoma State Cowboys have terrific running games.

Oklahoma State has more balance in their attack, with a deadly passing combination of Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant complementing one of the best runners in the country, Kendall Hunter.

Neither of these teams has been very good against the pass this year, though the Cowboys can argue that is because they had to face Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Missouri all in the same season.

Throughout most of the season, the Ducks offense was entirely dependent on the run, and when they struggled to move the ball on the ground, they lost. The past two games however have seen quarterback Jeremiah Masoli turn into a true dual threat rather than a runner who takes snaps from the shotgun.

If the Ducks want to keep up with the Cowboys, Masoli and his inconsistent receivers must be able to make plays and loosen up the Oklahoma State defense.

In a game matching such high powered offenses, execution will be critical for both teams. Points may come cheap in San Diego, but wasting any possession with a turnover or negative play that stalls a drive could put one team behind for good.

But with two of the premiere offensive coaches in college football, Mike “I’m a man!” Gundy and Chip Kelly, orchestrating things, I feel confident both units will show up to play.

While Dez Bryant is also a dangerous returner, the Ducks special teams are decent and unless one of these two teams makes a big gaffe, they seem fairly even in this phase of the game.

So both teams come in matched up well in many categories, what will make the difference? Most pundits feel Oklahoma State’s better balance on offense will win in the end. I feel differently.

The winner isn’t necessarily going to be the team that is more balanced on offense, because offenses don’t necessarily need to be balanced to win.

Assuming both offenses execute at a high level, and special teams strike even, the winner of this game will be whichever team’s defense mans up.

“What does that mean?” I hear you ask. It means whichever defensive unit best covers their weaknesses and creates opportunities will lead their team to victory. For both teams, that means turnovers.

Oklahoma State must tackle better than they have at any point in the season and maintain strict gap discipline to force third and long situations.

The Cowboys must also do a better job of getting to Masoli, for given time he has shown himself capable of hurting opponents with both his arm and his legs.

If the Cowboys defense finds the form they showed against Texas and Missouri ,it could be a long night for the Ducks.

Against a quarterback like Zac Robinson, it is vital not only for the Ducks to get pressure consistently but to do it in the right way. If rushers are not disciplined and leave their lanes, Taylor is capable of making one man miss and scrambling for big gains.

The greatest threat the Ducks defense faces though is Oklahoma State using play action and the tight end. Both have gouged Oregon all season long, and Oklahoma State has a great running back (Kendall Hunter) and a terrific tight end (Brandon Pettigrew) that could make it happen again.

It is vital that the Ducks defenders not be caught looking in the backfield allowing the Cowboy receivers to get behind them. The textbook way to beat play action is to read the offensive line’s blocks to diagnose run or pass rather than looking at the skill players, and the Oregon defense must do this better than they have all year.

As great a threat as Bryant is, Pettigrew worries me more simply because he plays the tight end position. Nick Allioti must find a scheme that will not allow the Cowboys to take advantage of mismatches against the Ducks linebackers in pass coverage.

I’m no coach, so I can’t speak with authority, but in Allioti’s position, I would tempted to simply match Patrick Chung or T.J. Ward man-to-man against Pettigrew on every down.

If he blocks, the safety comes up and plays the run. If he runs a route, the safety takes him in man coverage, hopefully with support from other defenders.

Just looking at the match ups this seems like it should be a close, but solid, victory for the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

But then again, the Beavers seemed to have the edge in their match ups against the Oregon Ducks and we saw how that turned out…Here’s hoping to make it 2-0 against OSU’s in 2008.

MY VERDICT: Oklahoma State Cowboys 38, Oregon Ducks 42