2012 Pac-12 Football Predictions: A Way-Too-Early Look at Next Year

Rose Bowl tickets are on the way, green and yellow gear is all packed, New Year's Eve dinner reservations are booked; so what's a girl to do while we wait for Oregon vs. Wisconsin?  Why, look ahead to next year, of course. 

There are many juicy storylines already shaping up in the 2012 Pac-12 football race: four new head coaches, marquee players bolting for the NFL or staying in school, NCAA sanctions (or not), a Pac-12 championship game that might actually mean something. 

Let's take a look.

Still King

Even if the Ducks had nothing going for them other than winning the conference three straight years, they would have to be the team to beat.  But, unfortunately for the remaining 11 teams, the Ducks look to be stronger than ever. 

With Chip Kelly—one of the top three coaches in the country—running the show; an experienced, motivated QB in Darron Thomas; a very good defense that will be, for the most part, a year older and wiser; and depth at every position, would you seriously bet against the Ducks? 

If LaMichael takes the NFL's money and runs—and I hope there is still a sliver of a chance he might return for one more shot at The Natty—those are big shoes to fill.  But the Ducks have so much talent waiting in the wings, and they all have one word tattooed on their foreheads—speed.  There is the risk of pesky NCAA issues at Oregon, but shouldn't that august organization really be focusing on Penn State? 

After the Ducks thrash Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, they look to be a preseason Top Five team.  If the team still has the hunger to match their talent on both sides of the ball, they will win the Pac-12 and go all the way.  12-0.

The King Is Dead; Long Live the King

O.K., now it gets interesting.  USC is back in the mix and back in the winning column.  They caught Oregon when they were a little flat after that exhilarating, season-making win at Stanford.  Everyone in the conference would have liked to see Ducks vs. Trojans, part 2, in the Pac-12 championship game.  Everyone except the NCAA, that is, and perhaps Rick Neuheisel. 

My prediction is that we will see this game in 2012. 

The big question mark is Matt Barkley—does he stay or does he go?  If he stays, I think it's Oregon vs. USC playing on 11/30/12 for a ticket to Miami.  In that scenario, I like the Ducks.  Yes, Robert Woods, Curtis McNeal and Marqise Lee are terrific, and the Trojan offensive line performed better that I thought they would, but their defense is suspect. 

And, I believe we will see pigs fly before we see Lane Kiffin beat Chip Kelly two years straight.  C'mon, Matt, stick around and let's put the gloves on.  11-1.

Can You Say "Rebuilding"?

I really, really, really hope that Stanford beats Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl, and I really wish Andrew Luck the best of luck in the NFL next year.  I'm trying to make Stanford fans feel good now because I don't think they have a prayer of finishing in the top tier of the conference next year.  They most certainly will not be in the Pac-12 championship game.

Andrew Luck is one player, yes, and it takes a team to go 11-1 in a season.  I understand that.  And perhaps David Shaw is a miracle worker, but I just can't see how, without Luck's leadership and with a shaky defense, Stanford can do any better than 8-4. 

I see them losing big at Oregon, losing medium at Washington, losing a close one at Notre Dame and getting clobbered by USC at home.  8-4 is still a good year.  It is.

It's Time to Be Honest About Cal

Cal Bears, who cares?  I am so sick and tired of this team being talked about and overrated every single year.  They aren't any good.  They weren't good in 2011 and they won't be good in 2012. 

If they lose to Texas in the Holiday Bowl, they should be kicked out of the Pac-12. 

I kind of liked Jahvid Best, and the Bears always seem to make it to some minor bowl, but surely Cal's athletic director must realize by now that Jeff Tedford is not a god. 

They are a perennial 6-6 or 7-5 team, they are boring and I refuse to discuss them further.

Washington One Win Better

Steve Sarkisian has done a good job in Seattle.  It's possible that he is the second best coach in the Pac-12.  The Huskies will be the primary challenger to the Ducks in the North Division.

But, see, that's the problem.  They have to find a way to get past Oregon and it's not going to happen in 2012.  They couldn't beat the Ducks at home this year on an emotional day in Husky Stadium. 

All of Seattle hates the Ducks intensely and they still couldn't get it done, knowing it would make their year.  It's unlikely they can do the job in Autzen next year.

If the Huskies can somehow find a way to beat LSU in Baton Rouge on 9/8/12, then I reserve the right to reevaluate their season—otherwise it's 8-4.  The fourth loss will come in the Apple Cup, which is a good segue to the next slide.

Mike Leach Scares Me

Mike Leach's new contract calls for a $25,000 bonus for winning the Apple Cup.  I think he does it in year one.  If Washington State doesn't win more conference games in 2012 than they did in 2011, I will eat my laptop.  And if Nick Allioti doesn't have a sleepless-in-Eugene night or two, he's just not paying attention. 

With the full support of AD Bill Moos, who is highly competitive and knows what he's doing, and with Leach's reputation for high-powered offense, Wazzu is poised to play the spoiler role in 2012.  They are not without some skilled players currently, and I think this hire will attract a few quality recruits.  I put them 6-6 and maybe headed to their first bowl since 2003.  Seriously.  

Another Day in the Pac-12, Another New Head Coach

While we are all extremely tired of Rick Neuheisel's whiny act, we have to ask ourselves: Jim who?  All we know about this guy is that he has only one year of college football coaching experience (as a graduate assistant at Washington in 1984, according to the L.A. Times).

I'm sure he's a nice man, but I have a very bad feeling about this for the blue and gold.

I like Kevin Prince, but Rosario is gone.  Except for Patrick Larimore, UCLA's defense has been a sieve.  Their 2012 preseason schedule includes Nebraska and Houston.  Good luck to you, Bruins.  4-8.

While We're on the Subject of New Coaches

Don't you wonder what it was like around the Stoops family dinner table when all those brothers were little?  Didn't they learn any manners??  Thank goodness one of them, at least, is gone from our sight. 

Rich Rodriguez takes over at Arizona and this man is a proven college coach—he's 70-41 in Division I-A.

Not having Stoops continually yelling at his players will, alone, be good for one additional win in 2012.  The Wildcats start their season with three home games, although one of them is against Oklahoma St.  I see them somewhere around 5-7, but wouldn't be surprised if they win at least one conference game they shouldn't. 

And One More Newbie...To Be Named Later

Generally, I like to stick with my sisters, but it looks like Lisa Love, VP for Athletics at ASU, is blowing it in the head coach derby.  Both Greg Byrne at Arizona and Bill Moos at WSU got out of the blocks early with excellent picks, while ASU is fumbling around to replace Erickson. 

The Sun Devils have some decent returning talent in Osweiler and Burfict (boo), but they are losing Aaron Pflugrad, who I really liked.  

Can they overcome this coaching fiasco and the late-season implosion and start fresh in 2012? 

Can Burfict learn how to be a decent human being? 

Can they beat Boise St. in their first bowl appearance since 2007?  I really hope so, but, uh, no.  Sorry, Sparky—4-8.    

Beavers Will Roar Back to Life

I can't bring myself to say anything negative about the Beavers.  They had a dismal year, and it's got to be tough being "little brother" to mighty Oregon for a proud, fierce program with devoted fans.  And everyone knows that Mike Riley is the nicest guy on the planet.  So, let's kiss 2011 good-bye in Corvallis and look ahead to 2012.

Sean Mannion, the freshman who replaced Ryan Katz in the surprise personnel move of the century, showed promise.  I'm not convinced he has Pac-12 top-tier QB potential, but I could live to eat those words. 

The Beavs will win more games than they did in 2011, and they will definitely win their first game next year (Nicholls State at Reser Stadium).  That will set up a fun second game when Wisconsin comes to Corvallis. 

If they can find a good running back, they could make 6-6 and get back to a bowl. 

Utah Belongs

Utah has to be happy with their first year in the Pac-12.  They were a factor in the South Division race until losing to Colorado (how did that happen?!?) in their last game, and they beat some teams they probably shouldn't have beaten. 

It's about time Utah gave Kyle Whittingham, a former National Coach of the Year, a nice fat raise to keep him competitive with his new peers. 

Now that they are a known entity and have proven they belong with the big boys, they won't be able to sneak up on anyone this year—I'm talkin' to you, Beavers.  Plus, they are losing those good offensive linemen. 

Whittingham and Norm Chow seem to be good recruiters, however, so I don't expect them to lose much ground in 2012.  There might be just a teensy Pac-12 sophomore slump, however.  I see them at 6-6.   

Last and Probably Least

Remember when the Buffs were really good?  They squished Oregon in the 1996 Cotton Bowl, and always had good teams. 

What happened?? 

I like Jon Embree and I think he will ultimately bring Colorado back, but I can't see a way to step it up a notch in 2012.  The Buffs are losing much of their 2011 team—on both sides of the ball—to graduation.  Of course, that could be a positive if recruiting goes well. 

The Buffs ended the year on a positive note with that surprising win over Utah, so perhaps they carry that momentum forward to start the 2012 campaign strong.  Let's be generous and predict 4-8.