You Heard It Hear First: BCS Predictions and Breakdown

For college football fans across America, it is only four days away. On Wednesday the countdown is not to the kiss at Midnight, but rather until 5 P.M. ET on Thursday when Penn State and USC kickoff BCS Bowl season in Pasadena.

Can’t you almost smell the roses?

Now, don’t get me wrong. So far, there have been some great appetizers this bowl season, (Pat White comes to mind) but the BCS is the main course and it is about time we dig into some predictions.

ROSE BOWL: No. 8 Penn State (11-1) vs. No. 5 USC (11-1)
Your gut tells you USC. Your brain tells you USC. Your heart tells you…USC.

Penn State’s season, whether it is fair or not, is looked at suspiciously because of the conference they come from and the Big Ten’s bowl legacy over the past few seasons (4-9 in BCS Bowls since 2000).

On paper these teams are nearly identical. Both have tremendous defensive numbers, rush the ball well, and normally outscore their opponents by a ton. In spite of that, this game will not be close. The Nittany Lions’ spread offense will have a tough time against the Trojans’ linebacker core led by senior Rey Maualuga. Carroll is 4-0 against Big Ten teams in bowl games and 3-0 in the Rose Bowl. His team will be prepared, motivated, and playing at home.

Prediction: USC without breaking a sweat, 41-13

ORANGE BOWL: No. 19 Virginia Tech (9-4) vs. No. 12 Cincinnati (11-2)
It is no secret that the Big East and ACC were incredibly mediocre in 2008, nevertheless this is what the current system produces and apparently the best each has to offer. Most would probably agree this matchup would be more intriguing if it was the Gator Bowl, but I digress.

Tech will not be at full strength. On Sunday a team official confirmed defensive stalwarts Jason Worilds and Brett Warren will not play Thursday. There was also news that senior guard Nick Marshman was ruled academically ineligible, further diminishing the offensive line that allowed 39 sacks this season (sixth most in the FBS).

The good news? The Bearcats led the Big East in sacks this season. Wait? Is that bad?

Brian Kelly, named Big East Coach of the Year for the second consecutive season, is quickly emerging as a candidate for some big time openings. A win in the Orange Bowl would really help to pad that resume.

Prediction: Cincinnati pulls away late, 34-17

SUGAR BOWL: No. 6 Utah (12-0) vs. No. 4 Alabama (12-1)
First thing is first. Utah is legit and this game will prove it. Unlike Boise and Ball State, who were exposed late in the season by solid opponents, the Utes are battle tested with convincing wins over Oregon State, BYU, and TCU. Not to mention, Kyle Whittingham is one of the best up and coming coaches in college football today. I have no doubt the Utes can to roll with the Tide for four quarters and keep this close. The difference in the game?

Nick Saban.

Saban is not losing this game. The loss to Florida was a huge disappointment, but a loss to Utah would be flat-out unacceptable after being ranked number one most of the season. The Tide don't blow anyone out of the water, so expect a low scoring affair with the two defenses putting some points on the board.

Also, remember the name "King" Louie Sakoda. Utah's Groza Award finalist, made 21 of 23 field-goal attempts this season, including a 53-yarder at Michigan and a 37-yarder on the final play to beat Oregon State.

Prediction: ’Bama too much for the Utes, 27-23

FIESTA BOWL: No. 3 Texas (11-1) vs. No. 10 Ohio State (10-2)

If the Longhorns were facing anyone else besides Ohio State I would be hesitant to pick them. This is a letdown game for Texas. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. They should be playing for a national title (spare me the argument) and that disappointment will make this game a lot closer than it should be.

Jim Tressel’s team is very fortunate to be in a BCS Bowl and you can rest assured he will have them focused. With a healthier Chris Wells and their pride on the line, expect a much better showing from the Buckeyes’ than they gave against USC in September. The last two years hurt and the upperclassmen will come to play.

Ultimately though, Colt McCoy wins this game. McCoy may not be as talented as Sam Bradford or as heralded as Tim Tebow, but he’s got the intangibles that make the difference in a game like this. Keep an eye on Terrelle Pryor who will have a rough day against a defense that lead's the country in sacks.

Prediction: McCoy TD Drive in the final seconds, 35-34.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: No. 1 Oklahoma (12-1) vs. No. 2 Florida (12-1)

This one is going to be good. Real Good. Maybe the best ever. These two squads have the best collection of athletes in the country and are about as evenly stacked as you could ask for.

From Stoops vs. Meyer to the Heisman race, when it comes to compelling storylines this game is an embarrassment of riches. However, the balance of the game will rest on one story, one ankle, one Gator.

Percy Harvin.

Harvin is the gamebreaker and if you don’t believe me just think back to how anemic the offense looked without him (No, it wasn’t just Alabama’s defense). These two teams are great, but Harvin is what makes the Gators special. Oklahoma can survive the loss of DeMarco Murray, for Florida losing their starting running back is a luxury they cannot afford.

Expect a back and forth affair with tons of scoring that may be decided by he who scores last. Special teams is a Florida strength and a Sooner weakness, so expect some big plays that could haunt Stoops.

Prediction: Florida in Rocky-esque slugfest, 45-42