Heisman Trophy 2011: Odds for Each Contender

The Heisman Trophy presentation is just hours away, and the outcome is far from a sure thing. Preseason favorite Andrew Luck of Stanford is still among the front-runners, but he has plenty of tough competition for the stiff-arm statue.

Voters might face a bit of déjà vu with Alabama’s Trent Richardson on the ballot. Richardson’s predecessor in the Tide backfield, Saints rookie Mark Ingram, took home the 2009 Heisman with some very similar stats to the ones Richardson brings into this year’s voting.

Read on for a closer look at Richardson and his competitors, with projected odds for each player’s chances of taking home college football’s biggest individual prize.

5. Tyrann Mathieu, LSU

As impressive as Tyrann Mathieu has been, it’s hard to imagine he’d even be here if he weren’t playing for the No. 1 team in the nation.

His clutch punt-return TDs have helped the Tigers claw back from slow starts in key wins over Arkansas and Georgia to close the season.

Even so, defensive players are rarely more than token inclusions in the Heisman voting, and Mathieu hasn’t been overpowering enough to buck that trend.

His four TDs (including two fumble returns) have been works of art, but it’s hard to stack them up against the 30-plus scores on other contenders’ records.

Odds: 30:1

4. Montee Ball, Wisconsin

Montee Ball deserves better than he’s likely to get from the Heisman voters (or than he did get from the Doak Walker Award voters).

The Badgers running back is just one shy of Barry Sanders’ FBS record for TDs in a season—Ball has scored 38, 32 of them on the ground—and has 1,759 rushing yards on the year.

Despite all that, Ball is hurt by his lack of spectacular highlights, by being a running back against two terrific QBs and by playing in a disappointing Big Ten. It will be a minor victory for Ball if he even makes the top three when the votes are announced tonight.

Odds: 18:1

3. Trent Richardson, Alabama

Like Tyrann Mathieu's, Trent Richardson’s Heisman stock has benefited enormously from his team’s superior performance.

Not only are the Tide in the national title game, but in their one loss to LSU, Richardson himself was one of the few Alabama offensive players who turned in a strong performance (169 combined yards against one of the nation’s best defenses).

Richardson’s raw numbers are good but not mind-boggling—1,583 rushing yards, 20 TDs and 327 more yards as a receiver. He’s mostly riding on his SEC/title contender pedigree, but that’s likely to get him farther than it deserves to do.

Odds: 12:1

2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor

None of this year’s Heisman candidates has a reel of jaw-dropping highlights to match Robert Griffin III’s.

RG3, looking to become the first Bear ever to win the Heisman, led his team to stunning upset wins over TCU and Oklahoma while putting up absurd numbers (3,998 passing yards with 36 TDs, plus another 644 yards and nine scores on the ground).

Despite Griffin’s brilliance, though, Baylor suffered three losses on the season (including blowouts by Texas A&M and BCS-bound Oklahoma State).

As the only candidate on the ballot not heading to a BCS bowl, Griffin’s individual numbers lose just enough luster to keep him from being the favorite here.

Odds: 4:1

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford

The decisive favorite for this award entering the season, Andrew Luck has hung around at the top all year.

His 3,170 passing yards aren’t the most eye-popping total in the country, but he threw 35 TDs against just nine interceptions and led the Cardinal to an 11-1 record and a spot in the Fiesta Bowl.

Had Luck not gotten wrecked by Oregon back in November, he’d be playing for the national title and have this award sewn up. Even without that edge, though, he’s had so much buzz all year that he’ll be able to hang on for the win despite less-than-stunning stats.

Odds: 3:1