Week 14 NFL Picks: Predicting Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys look to get back on the right track when they face the New York Giants on Sunday.  The Arizona Cardinals snapped the Cowboys' four-game winning streak on Sunday in a 19-13 overtime decision.

Romo was solid, throwing 28-of-42 for 299 yards and a touchdown.  Unfortunately, it was just one touchdown.  DeMarco Murray didn't help, gaining only 38 yards on 12 carries.  Dan Bailey was off his mark, hitting only two of his four field-goal attempts.  He hit one at the end of regulation, but that was negated by a timeout called by head coach Jason Garrett.

Luck would have it that the Cardinals would be the ones to score in overtime.

The Giants are slipping and sliding down the stretch.  After starting 6-2, the Giants have lost their last four games, three of which were against division leaders.  The Giants went from a two-game division lead to trailing the Cowboys by a game.

Their loss on Sunday was 38-35 at home against the Green Bay Packers.  Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four touchdowns.  Mason Crosby kicked the game-winning field goal late in the fourth quarter.

The Giants defense has betrayed them, allowing 26.2 points per game, which ranks 28th in the NFL.

Eli Manning has managed to have a very good year thus far.  He's averaged 308.8 yards per game, and posts a 20-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Granted, Manning is still an interception liability as he threw an interception to Clay Matthews on Sunday that was returned for a touchdown.  At least two more passes in the first half alone were nearly picked off.

The Cowboys welcome back Miles Austin and Tony Fiammetta to the field this week.  Austin had missed four games with a hamstring injury, while Fiammetta missed three games due to an inner ear infection.

The Giants are riddled with injuries on the offensive line.  Center David Baas is experiencing neck pain and migraine headaches, which could keep him out of the game.  Tackle Stacy Andrews joined left tackle Will Beatty on injured reserve on Wednesday after being hospitalized last weekend for pulmonary embolisms in both lungs.

This could be significant for the Cowboys defense.

Several issues will determine whether the Cowboys will win this rivalry game to boost their lead in the division.

Can DeMarcus Ware and other Cowboys pass-rushers put pressure on Manning?  Will Murray jump back to top running form with his lead blocker Fiammetta back?  How will Romo fare against the Giants defense?  Will Bailey get back on track?  How will the receiving corps fit together with Austin back?  Will the Cowboys secondary hawk Manning's passes the way the Packers did?

Tony Romo

29-of-43, 322 yards passing, 3 TD, INT

Romo will be good against the Giants on Sunday.  He'll take his chances in the first half, stretching the field, hitting receivers deep.  Two of those early deep passes will go for touchdowns.

As the game goes on, Romo will settle down.  He will hit more intermediate passes and short balls in the second half.  He'll have some skittish throws, and one will be intercepted.

Romo hasn't thrown for more than 300 yards since Week 6 against the New England Patriots.  Against a Giants defense that has allowed more than 350 yards passing in the last two games, this is a good game to hit the milestone once again.

DeMarco Murray

18 rushes, 123 yards, TD, 5 receptions, 30 yards

Murray didn't compile many yards with Fiammetta out.  In the last three games, Murray averaged 66 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry.

He'll surely be happy to go out with his blocking man.  Fiammetta will give Murray his running lanes, and Murray will take advantage of that with numerous runs for significant gains.  He'll also break a few big runs, and one of his rushes will go in for a score.

Also, Murray will be active in the passing game after not catching a pass for the first time since his record-setting game against the St. Louis Rams.  He'll catch a few passes out of the backfield and one will be for a first down.  Another will be one of the ill-fated Tony Romo you-thought-he-would-have-made-the-read shovel passes.

Miles Austin

2 receptions, 17 yards

Austin will see a fair amount of action.  He won't be among the starting wide receivers, but he'll get a fair amount of snaps and a few looks from Romo.

Austin's catches will come, but he won't break away for big gains.  His speed won't be the characteristic burst people are used to seeing.  Austin will take one on a screen for a short gain and one on a post pass for a solid gain.

Laurent Robinson

3 receptions, 80 yards, TD

Laurent Robinson will have a solid day.  He'll break out and make big catches, and one deep pass from Romo that Robinson catches will be for a touchdown.

Robinson doesn't need to make a ton of catches to make his impact felt—he just needs to stretch the field.  He'll do just that against the Giants.

Dez Bryant

6 receptions, 98 yards, TD

Bryant had a solid game against the Cardinals.  He caught eight passes for 86 yards and the only Cowboys touchdown of the day.

Bryant will be on his best game on Sunday.  He'll have Romo's attention often and will catch several passes, with one or two for more than 20 yards.  Bryant will pull in at least one touchdown. 

Jason Witten

5 receptions, 51 yards, TD

Jason Witten has been steady all season.  In every game, Witten has pulled in at least three catches and in 11 of 12 games, Witten has caught at least four.

Witten doesn't do quite as well as his average against the Giants.  He averages 55.6 yards per game on his career, but only 52.6 yards per game against the Giants.  In the last game against the Giants, Witten caught only one pass for seven yards.

This game will be a little below average for Witten as far as yards are concerned.  He'll get his catches, finding a way to get open and getting his hands on the ball.  However, Giants defensive players will take him down upon the catch or shortly thereafter.

DeMarcus Ware

2 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 2 sacks, 1 pass deflection

Ware will have a multi-sack game.  He'll be in the Giants backfield often, knocking Manning down a few times.  Twice he'll manage to bring him down with the ball in his hands.  Thus, he'll take advantage of the banged-up Giants offensive line.

Ware won't just make his day rushing Manning, but he'll knock down a pass. Also, Ware will pull down a rusher for a short loss.

Terence Newman

4 tackles, INT

Newman will likely have the unpleasant duty of covering Victor Cruz, who has been the unlikely guy to lead the Giants in receiving yards.  Newman will have to work hard to keep Cruz from his sixth 100-yard receiving game.

Newman will do a fair job as far as he can.  He'll stay with Cruz in general.  When Cruz catches balls, Newman will be able to take him down.  However, Cruz will probably crack 100 yards and get a touchdown.  One play could swing things in Newman's favor, and nabbing a poorly thrown ball for an interception could make Newman's day and that of the Cowboys.

Dan Bailey

2/2 FG, 4/4 XP

Bailey will hit his mark again.  He'll make the field goals he should make.  Also, he'll tack on the extra points when called upon.

Bailey will put the Cardinals game behind him.  He's good enough to get through games like that.  While Bailey is a rookie, he is also No. 2 in the NFL field goals made (29) and kicking points (115) and No. 5 in field-goal percentage (.906).

The timeout situation is a thing of the past, too.  Besides, those are only once in a lifetime occurrences for coaches who do catch their kickers like that.

Prediction

Prediction:  Cowboys 34, Giants 28

Dallas won't defeat the Giants in a rout.  The Giants aren't a team that goes down easily—three of their last four loss came by a touchdown or less.

This game will go down to the wire.  Tony Romo and Eli Manning will go back and forth, trading some touchdown passes and a couple of botched plays as well.

Romo will come out the victor because he'll make fewer mistakes.  Manning will make more poor throws and throw more interceptions than Romo, who will be the safer passing later in the game, ensuring the Cowboys maintain possession and control the tempo when time calls for it.

That will be helped by the rushing of Murray.  Murray will give the Cowboys the necessary bursts to sustain those drives late in the game.  Thanks to the blocking from Fiammetta, he'll be able to crack the second level of the Giants defense often and take significant gains.

Meanwhile, the Giants won't be able to push things along with their running game.  Brandon Jacobs missed practice on Wednesday due to a hamstring injury, and Ahmad Bradshaw missed practice with a foot injury.  Those injuries, coupled with the injuries on the offensive line, will force Manning to stick to the air.

The win would give the Cowboys a two-game lead with three games left, bringing Dallas close to clinching the division title.  Perhaps that type of win can help Cowboys fans forget the mistake made by Garrett on Sunday against the Cardinals. 

Riding into the playoffs shouldn't be too difficult for the Cowboys with games against losing teams between the two showdowns with their toughest division rival this season.  Taking the Giants to task is the big project.