The Big East Is over as We Know It: Why John Marinatto's Expansion Will Fail

Welcome San Diego State, Houston, SMU, Central Florida and Boise State football. Goodbye to the Big East as we know it. 

With reports that the aforementioned schools are set to join what was the Big East, Commissioner John Marinatto has helped ensure the mournful end one of college's most proud conferences. 

Make no mistake, these additions will not save the new "In it for the Money" conference, only further its tragic demise. 

In selling out to football, Marinatto and the Big East executives have forgotten the conference's true basketball character, diluted the Big East brand and spread the "In it for the Money" Conference far too thin to be successful.

Going forward, questions persist not only as to the new identity of the conference, but also the viability of the league.

From the very beginning there have been serious questions about the aforementioned schools that seemingly went unanswered. Foremost among them being: what do these teams really bring to table?

In terms of football, Boise State has been the only school among the five that has been a consistent BSC-caliber team (they've been twice).

San Diego State has little fan support and is two years removed from a 13-35 stretch, and the University of Central Florida just broke through to win its first goal game. SMU, for its part, is continuing its long road of recovery after receiving the "death penalty." 

Given none of these schools bring a deep legacy of football tradition (Boise State's rise has been this past decade) nor add a particular rivalry with current Big East schools, how exactly should these programs convince the likes of UConn or Rutgers to stay?

From the basketball angle, the first sentence of Villanova coach Jay Wright's December 6th interview on ESPN should sum it up: "It's really sad. It's really, really sad." ESPN's Joe Schad added to the sense of gloom when he said he understood why. "Basketball coaches are frustrated and disappointed." 

That's because SMU hasn't made the NIT tournament, let alone the NCAA tournament, for more than three decades. Houston? Forget about it, they haven't been relevant since Phi Slamma Jamma in the early '80s. San Diego State, the only team that's been competitive of late, won't even be joining for basketball. 

From a competition and tradition standpoint, these schools add marginal gains in football and next to nothing in basketball. 

Even the argument that the realignment brings three Top 20 TV markets in Dallas, Houston and San Diego to the Big East doesn't really hold water and is a weak ploy to sell desperate moves.

As this New York Times article on the Geography of Football reveals, these schools are hardly an upgrade when it comes to increasing TV viewership and media exposure. 

UCF, which has the biggest TV fan base at 506,679 fans, ranks only 55th nationally, which would put it ahead of only current members Cincinnati and Louisville.

San Diego State, which was brought in specifically for football regardless of their lousy record, has a market share of 77th, which would put it at last in the current Big East. SMU ranks 97th in the country in TV market share, while surprisingly, Houston does worse with 100,253, placing them at 112th in the country and last in Conference USA.

Even Boise State, which has been the darling of college football and has no competitors in its southern Idaho market share, can only muster a 57th ranking.

Meanwhile, in an equally rural and small TV market, University of Alabama is able to bring in roughly six times as many viewers on average. 

How does bringing a school like Houston, which attracts fewer viewers than the cross-town private school rival Rice, solidify the Big East?

Besides the fact that college football loyalty and interest is very team-specific (which would account for why Alabama is up there with NYC in terms of fans who tune into college football), the new "In it for the Money" schools can't even draw a majority of their markets.

UCF only attracts about a quarter of the college football market share, losing interest to state schools Florida, Florida State, South Florida and even the University of Miami.

Houston, which gets a shockingly low amount of viewers compared to its city size, can't compete with Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech and dormant San Diego State is drowned out by traditional California football powers USC, UCLA and Cal. 

Factor in that the current Big East will be splitting revenue more ways (five additions, three subtractions), travel costs—and student athletes' time outside of class—will skyrocket, and viewership will be down as there will be fewer meaningful rivalry games, and it's any wonder that the Big East ratified the expansion plans.

Moving forward, it's hard to imagine the addition of the five invited teams will persuade UConn and Rutgers to stay. Even if they do, the future of the Big East does not seem viable.

John Marinatto was bullied by Pittsburgh President Mark Nordenberg, embarrassed by West Virginia and rejected by TCU. 

This last-ditch effort by Marinatto appears more to be an effort to save his legacy and postpone the inevitable than anything else. If the Big East continues to employ a reactionary band-aid type approach, it won't keep its premier conference status and its automatic BCS bid for more than a few more years. 

Based on the news, the smaller basketball schools in the league should enter discussions as to forming a new North Eastern-based basketball-focused league to protect itself for when—not if— the Big East dissolves. 

The Big East today took another step towards guaranteeing that day will come.