Stanford's Fiesta Bowl Faceoff Against Oklahoma State: Defenses Optional

Sunday night’s BCS announcement was applauded in Palo Alto, as the No. 4 Stanford Cardinal (11-1) received an invite to the 41st Tostitos Fiesta Bowl against No. 3 Oklahoma State (11-1) on January 2.

The Fiesta Bowl invitation ended a few weeks of speculation about the Cardinal's postseason destination, as they had been rumored to be among the candidates for other BCS bowls, and in some dire scenarios for perhaps a non-BCS bowl.

Now that the Cardinal’s BCS destination is set, read on for a Fiesta Bowl preview. 

Fiesta Bowl Fast Facts

Kickoff at the University of Phoenix stadium in Glendale, Arizona, will be at 8:30 pm ET on Monday, January 2, 2012.

The stadium is the home of the NFL Arizona Cardinals and it has a retractable roof and a natural grass playing surface. The stadium hosted Super Bowl XLII.

Like the other BCS bowls, the Fiesta Bowl has a total payout of $17 million.

Stanford's Strength: Offense

Despite losing star WR Chris Owusu and TE Zach Ertz to injury, the Stanford offense finished with an impressive average of over 43 points per game.  

The naysayers spent much of November finding various faults with Stanford QB Andrew Luck. However, his only reliable WR down the stretch was former walk-on and possession receiver Griff Whalen. Luck performed admirably, ending up with 35 touchdowns and 8.5 yards per attempt, and remarkably, completed the regular season without a red-zone turnover. He is now Stanford's all time leader in touchdown passes.

Stanford’s dominating offensive line enabled the four horsemen in the backfield—Stepfan Taylor, Tyler Gaffney, Anthony Wilkerson and short yardage specialist extraordinaire Jeremy Stewart—to combine for 26 touchdowns and over 2,000 yards. 

Ertz and the other Cardinal TEs, Coby Fleener and Levine Toilolo, totaled 19 touchdown catches on 89 receptions. All are matchup nightmares, especially the 6’8” Toilolo, who stepped up in a big way after Ertz went out with a knee injury.

Stanford's Weakness: Pass Defense

Stanford’s defense yielded less than 14 points per game in its first seven games, but allowed over 26 per game in its last five.

By season’s end, the injury-wracked secondary featured a fifth-year senior wideout, Corey Gatewood, who went from backup WR in October to starting CB in November. The Cardinal had only six interceptions all season.

Still, Stanford had 38 sacks, 88 tackles for loss and 15 fumble recoveries. 

Stanford will need all healthy hands on deck to defend against Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon and the high-flying OK State aerial attack. S Delano Howell, who played in November with his right hand in a cast, and others in the banged-up secondary, should be healed up by the Fiesta Bowl.  

The same cannot be said for LB Shayne Skov, whose return from September ACL surgery will be in the 2012 season. In his place, Jarek Lancaster and AJ Tarpley combined for five sacks and 116 tackles. However, there is only one Shayne Skov, whose dynamic and disruptive presence cannot be replaced. 

Oklahoma State's Strength: Offense

The Cowboys’ offense was even more prolific than Stanford’s, averaging over 49 points per game. Oklahoma State blew out its opponents 342 to 104 in the first half of its games. 

While Heisman Trophy hopeful QB Brandon Weeden did not enjoy as much hype as his Fiesta Bowl rival Andrew Luck, the 28-year-old Weeden’s play and stats were every bit as good. He completed over 72 percent of his passes for over 4,300 yards and 34 touchdowns. 

WR Justin Blackmon is the best at his position in the country, and he should win the Biletnikoff Award again.

RB Joseph Randle was fourth among the nation’s leaders with 23 touchdowns, averaging six yards per carry. His sidekick Jeremy Smith added nine touchdowns and a 7.2 average per carry. Both are fast, decisive, elusive and powerful, as the Oklahoma defense can confirm.

PK Quinn Sharp had a terrific season, converting 20 of 23 field goals and booming 56 touchbacks on kickoffs.

Oklahoma State's Weakness: Rush Defense

The Cowboys’ defense was not airtight. It surrendered nearly 26 points per game and a whopping 2,161 net rushing yards (Stanford’s defense allowed only 1,522 net rushing yards).  

The Cowboys also allowed 3,187 passing yards and had a deficit of over six minutes in time of possession per game. Opponents converted 41 percent on third down. 

The defense had some comparable statistics to Stanford’s, with 28 sacks, 83 tackles for loss and 19 fumble recoveries. More importantly, Oklahoma State had 28 interceptions.  

Stanford's Road to Glendale

Stanford raced out to a 7-0 start, but only one of those opponents, UW, ended up with a winning record. Three of Stanford's early victims—Arizona, UCLA and Washington—fired their coaches during or after the season. 

The Cardinal went 4-1 down the stretch against much tougher opposition, although they suffered injuries to key players on both sides of the ball.

In those last five games, Stanford defeated two ranked teams (USC and Notre Dame) and another bowl-bound team (Cal) while suffering its only loss to eventual Pac-12 champ Oregon.

Oklahoma State's Road to Glendale

Everyone knows the circumstances of the 11-1 Cowboys’ only loss—a double-overtime defeat to bowl-bound Iowa State, in Ames, just hours after the team learned of the tragic fatal air crash involving OK State’s women’s basketball coaches. 

Other than that unfortunate evening, the Cowboys were perfect in 2011, including a pair of tough road wins at Texas A&M and Texas, a convincing 59-24 beatdown of Baylor, and a thrilling 52-45 victory over K State.

Oklahoma State and Stanford shared one common opponent, Arizona. The Cowboys won 37-14 in Stillwater, while the Cardinal won by a nearly identical 37-10 margin in Tucson.

The Cowboys capped their regular season with a 44-10 thrashing of Oklahoma in the annual Bedlam rivalry, a dominating performance that had many thinking the Cowboys could leapfrog Alabama into the NCG.

Stanford's Key Player: Andrew Luck

Andrew Luck may or may not win the Heisman Trophy. He may or may not be the first overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. One thing is for sure. He is Stanford’s best QB in decades, and is the Cardinal’s best player.

Everyone knows how he can throw the football. He also runs, catches and even tackles. If he played TE, he would be All-American. If he played LB, he would be All-American.

Luck has one more game as a college QB. Ask VaTech how he did in his other BCS Bowl, the 2011 Orange Bowl.

Oklahoma State's Key Player: Justin Blackmon

WR Justin Blackmon is the nation’s premier wideout and a good bet to repeat as the Biletnikoff Award winner.

Although every Big 12 defensive coordinator focused on him, he still put up staggering numbers, with 113 receptions for 1,336 yards and 15 touchdowns.  

He has speed, hands, hops, body control, fearless toughness across the middle and has run for seemingly miles of tackle-breaking yards after catches. 

How does he do it? ESPN analyzed his amazing physical gifts prior to the 2011 season. After his 2011 feats, they will need to do a sequel.

Prediction: Stanford 34, Oklahoma State 30

Both teams have shown they can light up the scoreboard. Both teams have shown they can be opportunistic on defense. 

Two factors favor Stanford.

First is the possibility of an “NCG letdown.” The Cowboys weren’t alone in thinking they deserved a shot at LSU. They missed a berth in the NCG by a mere 0.09 points, the closest-ever margin between second and third place rankings since the current BCS rules were adopted in 2004.

Will the Cowboys’ Fiesta Bowl performance reflect their disappointment? 

Second, they have been vulnerable on defense against the run, and have not seen Stanford’s style of power running game, with six OLs and three-TE formations.

A strong VaTech team was overwhelmed 40-12 by the Stanford offense in the 2011 Orange Bowl. Stanford will similarly prevail in the 2012 Fiesta Bowl, but by a much narrower margin. 

Final Score: Stanford 34, OK State 30.