BCS Bowl Predictions: How Houston Loss Will Shakeup Matchups

Just when we all thought we had the BCS bowl picture figured out, No. 24 Southern Mississippi goes and lays a 49-28 beat down on No. 6 Houston in the Conference USA Championship game. Now, there appears to be at least two at-large berths up for grabs.

Unless you're a genius or a masochist, it's nearly impossible to fully understand all of the ins and outs of the BCS system, but here are some of the things that we already know. With a loss to Southern Miss, the Cougars essentially eliminated themselves from BCS contention, as they will surely tumble to around the No. 10 spot in the rankings.

Oregon has clinched a spot in the Rose Bowl thanks to its convincing win in the Pac-12 Championship Game. That is the only certainty thus far, but we can make some assumptions. For one, either Wisconsin or Michigan State will qualify for the Rose Bowl with a win in the Big Ten Championship game, while the other will be out of the BCS picture.

West Virginia looks to have the tiebreaker secured in the Big East, and it will secure a BCS berth. Whether LSU wins or loses against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, it will likely play for the National Championship against No. 2 Alabama.

A Georgia win would eliminate one of the at-large bids, but I think it's fairly safe to assume we won't have to worry about that. In the ACC, either Virginia Tech or Clemson will qualify. Virginia Tech will still have an at-large chance if Clemson wins, but it would probably be a long shot.

As for the Big 12, the winner of the Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma game will receive an automatic berth. Oklahoma State would still stand a chance at getting an at-large bid in a losing effort, though. Also, at No. 4, it seems safe to say that Stanford will get an at-large spot as well.

Based on my current projections, LSU, Alabama, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Oregon, Oklahoma State and Stanford will occupy eight of the 10 BCS slots. That means that there are still two undecided BCS berths provided everything plays out as expected.

One little-known wrinkle in terms of BCS eligibility is that any conference champion from a non-automatic-qualifing conference that is ranked in the top 12 of the BCS standings earns an automatic berth into a BCS bowl game.

With Houston's loss, that is incredibly unlikely at this point, but there is an even more obscure rule that could get TCU into a BCS game. Any Non-AQ champion ranked in the top 16, but ahead of a champion of a BCS conference, receives an automatic berth.

The Horned Frogs are currently ranked No. 18 but will win the Mountain West Conference with a win over UNLV. They will likely be ranked ahead of Big East Champion West Virginia no matter what, so a two-spot ascent in the standings will push the Horned Frogs into a BCS game.

Unfortunately for TCU, there doesn't seem to be much opportunity for advancement, so I think the Horned Frogs will ultimately miss out. This then opens the door for No. 7 Boise State despite the fact that the Broncos will finish behind TCU in the Mountain West.

The final at-large spot is a bit of a toss up, but idle Arkansas seems to hold the advantage with a ranking of No. 8. Provided the favorite wins in every conference championship game, the Razorbacks will maintain that ranking and likely move up a spot thanks to Houston's loss.

Had Houston won, then there likely would have been just one at-large spot open, but the loss has certainly opened up the BCS picture in a big way. Should upsets occur tonight, then things could most definitely change, but at this point, Boise State and Arkansas look like they may be the main beneficiaries of Houston's collapse.