NBA Free Agents 2011: Why Arron Afflalo Is the Most Coveted Wing Player

Arron Afflalo, according to Marc Stein, is the most coveted wing player on the free-agent market. 

"

Heard it from handful of GMs over past 2 days: FA w/most suitors after top bigs (Nene/Chandler/MGasol) is DEN restricted FA Arron Afflalo

"

Some who aren't close followers of the NBA might wonder why a relatively obscure player has gotten so much attention in the free-agent market and so much buzz in the offseason. After all, we're talking about a player who has never scored more than 14 points a game for a season. 

Well, in part the reason is that he projects to be able to do more than that. Last year Dorell Wright, switching form the Miami Heat to the Golden State Warriors, saw his scoring climb three points a game.

Wesley Matthews of the Portland Trail Blazers saw a five-point bump in his scoring when he switched teams from the Utah Jazz. 

Some players are just waiting for an opportunity to switch roles, and in so doing can actually see their production increase. Last season Afflalo only had a usage rate of 14.8 percent and with a bump in that of five percent, it's a realistic to think that he could score 18 to 20 points. 

Afflalo is an efficient scorer, sinking 48.8 percent of his field-goal attempts overall, which is high for a shooting guard, and a .581 effective field-goal percentage. He also has a real knack for being able to hit the long two. 

In addition to being able to increase his scoring production, there's also the fact that his defense is good. He has an aggressive, hard-playing style which most teams covet. Effort on defense is one thing that teams covet and it's something Afflalo has in spades. 

There needs to be a word of caution with all the optimism here, though. There's a chance that all the buzz around Afflalo is driving the price up. Hollinger's scouting report isn't exactly saying "best wing available."

"

+ Tough, defensive-minded wing who is excellent spot-up shooter. Good handle.

+ Average athlete. Will attack off dribble but not a good finisher or passer.

+ Good defensive fundamentals but average feet. High character guy. 

Afflalo really stepped up his offensive game this past season, getting more aggressive attacking off the dribble and drawing fouls while still maintaining his deadly 3-point threat (42.3 percent on the season, 40.8 percent career), As a result, he led all shooting guards in TS% at 62.0. 

Afflalo isn't noted for his finishing skill, but he chose his spots well when he attacked. Most of his drives were to pass, but he also shot 67.1 percent at the rim and a stellar 52.7 percent on shots from 3-15 feet -- an area where most players shoot in the high 30s. He's not a great athlete but he is a good ballhandler for his size, and he showed it by ranking 10th at his position in pure point rating. In spite of all that, Afflalo is still basically a fourth or even fifth option offensively; last season he was 60th out of 66 shooting guards in usage rate. 

Afflalo has a reputation as a defensive stopper, but some of that is simply a function of his not being J.R. Smith. While Afflalo is tough and his fundamentals are excellent, he is a B athlete and can't hang with some of the league's elite wings. Statistically, his numbers last season were very average -- not bad, but nothing to write home about either. Denver gave up more points with him on the floor, opposing shooting guards had a 16.2 PER against him, and Synergy put him in the middle of the pack among shooting guards. Only two shooting guards stole the ball less often.

"

The reality is that while Afflalo is a nice player with an upside, he's not the next Kobe Bryant or Dwyane Wade. He's getting to the danger point of being overhyped. While I think that Hollinger underrates him a bit by saying he's not better than a fourth option, he's certainly no better than a second or third option.

Fans need to be careful to measure their optimism here.