Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers: What to Watch for in Heroes Game

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Now that the turkey has been consumed, naps have been taken and Grandma is off to make her Christmas fruitcake, let's return our focus once again to college football—specifically the new border rivalry between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Iowa Hawkeyes.

It's not really accurate to call this a "new" rivalry. Actually, the Hawkeyes and Cornhuskers used to play each other quite frequently. From 1898 until 1919, the two teams played nearly every year.

They took a break until 1930, when they resumed their yearly border rivalry until 1946. That's when the "rivalry" pretty much ended. The two teams didn't meet again until 1979, and even then, only managed sporadic renewals of their feud.

They faced off every year from '79 to '82, then not again until 1999 and 2000. That was the last time these two teams shared the same field.

So really, this is the rebirth of a very old rivalry.

Nebraska firmly leads the series. They've won 26 times to Iowa's 12, and the two have tied three times. The longest winning streak for Iowa is just three (1918, 1919, 1930 and again 1942-1944), while Nebraska has enjoyed as many as eight in a row (1931-1941, with the teams not playing in '35 and '36).

Does that mean that Nebraska will come away with another victory? Not necessarily.

Nebraska enjoyed their biggest and most frequent victories over the Hawkeyes in years when Iowa was most definitely not a powerhouse football program. They mysteriously missed Iowa during the early '20s, when the Hawkeyes were powerful, missed them again during Iowa's National Title runs of the late '50s and didn't face Iowa during Hayden Fry's hay day of the mid 80's.

For whatever reason, the Hawkeyes have agreed to play Nebraska during rebuilding years. Meanwhile, the Huskers were largely enjoying successful teams during those times.

That's not an excuse for Iowa's woes. It's merely an observation that Iowa fans never got to see how their best Hawkeye teams might have stacked up against their western neighbors.

This year may be somewhat of a rebuilding year yet again for Iowa, but it's not Nebraska's best season, either. Both teams have dealt with some issues and setbacks that have made for seasons that are a shade less than maybe their fans had hoped for.

It should still be a great game, and I have a feeling a great rivalry will be revealed to the nation Friday.

There are some things you should look for that will determine who will come away with the newly minted Heroes Trophy and get the upper hand in the latest incarnation of this storied border feud.

Taylor Martinez Will Find Success on the Ground for the Huskers

While Iowa's defense has certainly taken a large step back this year compared to years past, one area they've always had trouble with is slowing down dual-threat quarterbacks.

Taylor Martinez fits that bill.

Martinez hasn't had a stellar passing season. Overall, he's completed 56 percent of his passes, has accumulated 1,810 yards and has 11 touchdowns with seven interceptions.

His last two outings, however, have not been even that good. Against Penn State, he completed just 48.1 percent of his passes, and against Michigan, he completed only 39.1 percent. Through those two games, he also managed just one passing touchdown.

On the ground, however, Martinez has been exceptional. He has 817 rushing yards, averages 4.83 yards per carry and has scored nine touchdowns. He's the eighth best rusher in the conference, beating out many teams' leading rushers.

Iowa struggled mightily with Iowa State's Steele Jantz, Northwestern's Kain Colter and Minnesota's Marquis Gray. They did well in limiting Michigan's Denard Robinson, but they've had his number the last couple of years. That game was an anomaly compared to how they've performed against other rushing quarterbacks.

The Hawkeyes are merely "OK" against straight-forward runners as it is. Their defense ranks seventh in the conference against the run. Against more shifty runners that can also threaten them with their arm, Iowa is largely ineffective.

Bo Pelini is many things, but he's not an idiot. He'll know full well how Iowa struggles against guys like Martinez and will dial up a number of plays designed to throw Iowa's defense off.

Look for Martinez to pick up some of his best yards of the season as he zips around Iowa defenders.

Marcus Coker Will Get Nearly 30 Carries and Top 110 Yards

Nebraska CB Alfonzo Dennard is likely the best corner Iowa WR Marvin McNutt has had to play against this year. McNutt's impressive numbers may almost seem a little inflated compared to what he'll likely do against Dennard.

James Vandenberg is a good quarterback, and he and McNutt have forged a unique bond this year, but Iowa's pass attack can't live on JVB-to-McNutt alone. In order for that combination to work against Nebraska's secondary, there needs to be some balance.

More than that, Coker has become Iowa's workhorse of late. In three of the last four games, Coker carried 29-of-32 times and gained over 130 yards each time. The exception was against Michigan State, whose defense was too disruptive for Iowa.

Iowa needs Coker this week more than ever. Nebraska's run defense allows an average of 168.27 yards per game, making it a ripe week for Coker to work the ground game.

That in turn should open up opportunities for Vandenberg, McNutt, WR Keenan Davis and WR Kevonte Martin-Manley to get the air attack moving. Without Coker, Nebraska could drop their linebackers deeper off the line and protect the mid-range area of Iowa's pass attack. With him, they'll be forced to stay closer to the line in an attempt to limit his production.

What's more, this is Kirk Ferentz's preferred method of attack. He likes to establish the ground game before opening up the pass attack too widely. He may come out immediately with a couple of passes, but it's largely a mirage.

He'll move very quickly to Coker and attempt to challenge Nebraska's front seven. Look for Coker to have a very big part to play in Iowa's offense, and expect him to have a decent measure of success against the Husker run defense.

Turnovers Will Go in Iowa's Favor

It's the battle-within-the-battle, and this one goes in Iowa's favor.

Over the past 11 games, Iowa has averaged 1.64 turnovers gained per game. They have a plus-four turnover margin, having taken away nine fumbles and nine interceptions while giving away nine fumbles and five interceptions.

This isn't the most opportunistic Iowa team ever to take the field, but they are fifth in the conference in turnover margin and have managed to take more than they've given away.

Nebraska hasn't been quite so adept in this arena.

The Cornhuskers have averaged 1.45 turnovers gained per game, which may not sound much different than Iowa. They've grabbed seven fumbles and nine interceptions.

However, the Huskers have given up 10 fumbles and seven interceptions. That's good for a negative-one turnover margin.

Look a little more closely at those numbers. Iowa has been ever-so-slightly better at forcing fumbles than Nebraska and are dead even in the interception department. However, the Hawkeyes have been considerably better at preventing opponent interceptions and are nearly identical as Nebraska in fumbles lost.

What it all comes down to is that James Vandenberg is better at throwing the football than Taylor Martinez. He protects the ball a bit better.

While Iowa doesn't have a fantastic secondary, Micah Hyde is a serious threat to take away interceptions and he's not alone. Safety Tanner Miller also has three interceptions on the year, and both he and CB Shaun Prater have pick-sixes to their credit this year.

What's more, the linebackers aren't too bad at picking off the ball, either. There's always a chance for a Hawkeye pick if Martinez allows a throw to wobble or if he doesn't look off the defender.

This could end up being a sloppy game from a turnover standpoint. Expect more than a couple of turnovers, and don't be at all surprised if Iowa comes out on the winning end of that battle.

Nebraska Will Win the Special Teams Battle

This can be a great equalizer. A good offense won't matter much if they have to travel the length of the field every time they touch the football. At least it becomes much harder for them to score than if they get the ball at mid-field time and again.

A mediocre defense can be aided tremendously when they have an entire field to work on stopping their opponents versus having to work it out in just a handful of yards.

In the category of Opponent Kickoff Returns, Iowa ranks 11th in the conference and Nebraska ranks 10th. The Hawkeyes allow 110.2 yards per game on kickoffs, and the Huskers allow 108.3.

In a nutshell, both teams have pretty shoddy kickoff coverage, and there's no clear advantage.

On opponent punt returns, Iowa fares much better. The Hawkeyes only have 10 returns in 11 games and have averaged allowing six yards per return.

The Huskers have 23 returns against them and have allowed an average 12.22 yards per return. That's good enough for dead last in the conference.

Still, I wouldn't necessarily call Iowa's punt coverage unit "good." They just haven't punted enough for that stat to get skewed. Of course, that's part of the process, and it still works in Iowa's favor.

On the other side of things, the stats start turning a little.

Nebraska averages 8.81 yards per punt return, while Iowa averages just 6.82 yards per punt. That puts both teams mid-pack in the conference, with Iowa falling a couple positions below the Huskers.

Dig even deeper into the stats, and the real Husker advantage starts to become clear.

If Iowa held an advantage in opponent punt return yards, Nebraska clearly owns the category of kick returns. The Huskers average 25.9 yards per return with a touchdown. Iowa averages 22.57 yards per kick return.

That puts Nebraska second in the conference in kick returns, while Iowa weighs in at seventh.

Interestingly enough, these two teams hold the top spots in the conference in terms of punt yardage. Nebraska is on top, averaging 44.5 yards per punt, and Iowa is second, averaging 40.7.

Nebraska also ranks second in the conference in field goal percentage hitting 85 percent of the time. Iowa sits eighth, hitting only 70 percent of the time.

As far as kickoffs themselves are concerned, Nebraska leads the conference in kickoff yardage with a 67.37 average and 18 touchbacks. They have not kicked the ball out-of-bounds even once.

Iowa, on the other hand, averages just 62.00 yards per kickoff, have only three touchbacks and have kicked out-of-bounds three times.

All of this comes down to this:

Nebraska shouldn't expect a lot of return yards when Iowa punts the ball, and both teams should have a measure of success returning the other's kickoff. Virtually every other category falls in Nebraska's favor, though.

They're better at punting the ball, better at kicking off and better at kicking field goals. The Huskers can have more confidence in their kicking game and can expect better field position throughout the contest.

Expect a Tough-Fought Football Game

The photo accompanying this is from 2000 because that's how far back you have to go to find a picture of these two teams going at each other.

Don't expect this game to play out like the others in semi-recent history, though. These are two very different teams from the ones that met in 1999 and 2000. They're different teams than the ones that met in the early '80s.

It was hoped that the Legends Division title would be on the line when these two teams met in Lincoln, but that didn't pan out. Both teams faltered, and Michigan State took control of the division.

That's why they play the games, but it wasn't the way fans had hoped this rivalry would renew itself.

Still, there's a lot to play for on both camps. Both teams are searching for a January bowl game, and this showdown will provide it for one team, while the other could be playing in December.

Bragging rights are also on the line. While the two teams have met many times and Nebraska holds the clear edge, it's been over a decade since they last met. In college football terms, it's practically ancient history. It was almost three full classes ago.

Look for Iowa to attack the Black Shirt Nebraska defense with a balanced attack, using Marcus Coker, Keenan Davis and Kevonte Martin-Manley as the primary early targets. As things get rolling, look for Marvin McNutt to start becoming a larger factor in Iowa's offense.

That will be because Iowa will pick on the side opposite of Dennard until Ferentz/Vandenberg feel that he has started to fall asleep or starts playing off McNutt a little to help cover the other receivers.

However, look for Nebraska to use Martinez heavily on the ground, then punch the Hawkeyes in the teeth with RB Rex Burkhead. Burkhead has been less effective lately as he's battled through an injury, but he's still a dangerous back in short-gain situations and could be deadly if Iowa starts focusing too heavily on Martinez.

Don't expect the best defensive performances you've seen from either team this year. Both will struggle in certain areas at times, as both offenses have weapons the other struggles to defend against.

Nebraska will win the field position battle, but Iowa will win the turnover battle. Which will matter more?

That's tough to predict, but if Iowa can generate more than two turnovers, the field position battle won't mean as much.

The big "intangible" in the game is how hungry Nebraska is. If they find real value in a victory over the Hawkeyes and come out fired up, this could be an incredible game. If they feel like their season has passed them by and come out flat, this could be an embarrassment.

Iowa tends to play to the level of their opponents and this game will be no different. Expect a tough, physical football game that comes down to the wire.

I'll go against the wire on this one. Though Iowa has played poorly on the road this year, this is their last shot at redemption this 2011 season, and I like their skill sets against the Huskers this year.

Prediction: Iowa 27-Nebraska 24