NBA Lockout: Cleveland Cavaliers Could Be Doomed in 2012 NBA Draft If No Season

After getting lucky in the 2011 NBA Draft, in which they won the No. 1 pick with the Clippers' pick that they had traded for at the deadline and ended up with two of the top four picks, tabbing Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson as the two guys to start their turnaround, the Cleveland Cavaliers could be in big trouble.

If the NBA lockout talks end up stalling out for good (which is still very much in the realm of possibility) and the players take the owners to court, the season would seemingly be canceled unless a miracle happens. From there would come months of litigation until a decision is had.

No season means there would be no games played, and no records on which to base next year's draft. Initially, the thought is that the league would just repeat last year's lottery, giving the Cavs the best chance of winning the No. 1 pick, as they had the worst record.

However, it seems that probably won't be the case.

Ric Bucher reported a few weeks ago that options were discussed for the draft during labor negotiations if the season were canceled, and options didn't look great for the Cavs.

An unlikely option, but also the most devastating for the Cavs, would be for the league to just take the total of the three previous seasons and do a lottery with the 14 worst teams. That would put the Cavs with a record of 146-100, the ninth best in the league, which would give them the 21st pick in next year's draft.

One option for the draft without a season would be to take the aggregate record from every team over the past three years to determine the order of the lottery, likely with more weight on more recent seasons. The simplest way to do that, then, would be to make every loss from last season worth three points, every loss from two seasons ago worth two points and every loss from three seasons ago worth one point. That puts more weight on more recent seasons.

With that formula, Cleveland, because of the fact that they won 61 and 66 games in the two seasons prior to last year, would end up with the 15th most points, putting them outside the lottery.

Bucher also reported the possibility of taking the aggregate of the five past seasons, which would put them into the lottery, but still very low.

When you think about these two options, they actually make a lot of sense in terms of fairness, as it gives teams that have been bad for a long period of time a better shot at improving their team. It's almost surprising that one of these formulas isn't already in place, as it would keep teams from tanking for the No. 1 pick more than the lottery does.

If I were to take a guess at how the draft would work, however, it would be something similar to the NHL draft after their season-long lockout, which included a league-wide lottery. The NHL gave priority to teams who had been absent from the playoffs over the past three seasons (Cleveland has been in two of three) and to teams that hadn't had a No. 1 pick over the same amount of time (Cleveland has had one of those).

This type of lottery may slightly benefit the Cavaliers, as it would be a league-wide lottery, meaning they would have a shot to get a high pick. Plus, they have the option of swapping draft picks with the Miami Heat in next year's draft as a result of the "trade" for LeBron James. In essence, they would have double the number of chances in the lottery, as they would probably be on the same level as the Heat.

The Cavaliers are obviously going to have a hard time being a good team this season, and would likely be one of the five worst teams in the league again. For their sake, they'd better hope the season ends up playing out.