BCS Rankings: The Odds of a Non-SEC Team Being in the Title Game Are...

Most have come out and said that an all-SEC title game is all but a foregone conclusion. It certainly seems that way, with three teams from the same division in the top three of standings and no serious threat for anyone to replace them.

What would have to happen for a non-SEC team to make the championship? What are the exact odds?

Let's start with the premises. We're going to use these to figure out the exact chances of a non-SEC vs SEC title game.

1. LSU will make the title game if it beats Arkansas—not the SEC title (although they will), I'm talking about the real one. There's no way a loss to UGA would drop LSU below No. 2.  Why? If they did lose to UGA after beating Arkansas, they would have one loss, and they would not get passed by Oklahoma State or Virginia Tech.  So, win, and you're in for LSU.

2. Arkansas can still make the SEC Title game. If it beats LSU and Alabama loses to Auburn, Arkansas and LSU would be tied, with Arkansas having the tie-breaker. Then, if Arkansas were to lose to Georgia, it would be out of the title picture. Alabama would be as well, having lost its second game (we'll come back to this).

3. If Arkansas and Alabama win, then there's a three-way tie. Given the tie-break rules, LSU would still make SEC title game, unless either Alabama and Arkansas jumped them in the standings—I can't see this happening. It would be saying that LSU would drop below an Alabama team it beat on the road. It's possible, and will likely only happen if Arkansas totally destroys LSU.

4. It follows that if Arkansas makes the SEC Title game, then LSU will still make the national championship. How? LSU would have lost, but that means that Alabama will have lost also. I don't see Oklahoma State or Virginia Tech jumping a one-loss LSU team.

5. It follows that the only way LSU doesn't make the national championship is if it loses to Arkansas and then Georgia. But, what happens if LSU loses to Arkansas and then loses to Georgia? A loss to Ark and a place in the SEC title game for LSU would mean that Alabama won. So if LSU loses to UGA, Alabama and Arkansas would both be 11-1 and would play in the national championship. So even if LSU loses two games, that implicitly means that Ark and Bama will play for the title.

6. If Arkansas loses and Alabama wins, it will be a LSU-Bama repeat of the national championship. It doesn't matter what happens with LSU and Georgia or anyone else.

7. If Alabama loses and Arkansas loses, then LSU will be in the national championship for sure—but who knows who will come forward and play them? Oklahoma State would if it beat Oklahoma. Would Virginia Tech even jump a two-loss Alabama team? VT still needs to beat UVA and Clemson to even stay at one loss. Stanford is at six, and only has one game left against ND (unless Oregon loses to Oregon State).

All-in-all, for simplicity, we will leave it at this. If Alabama loses, AND Arkansas loses, AND Ok State beats OU, then Ok State will play LSU in the title game.

So. Back to the title of the piece. What are the odds that any of this happens?

The only way for there to not be an all-SEC title game is (2) and (7).

Let's review: (2): a) Arkansas Wins, b) Alabama loses to Auburn, c) Arkansas loses to Georgia, d) Ok State Wins

What are the odds of this happening? We can approximate.

Arkansas is currently a 14-point underdog in Las Vegas. Using the following conversion calculator, Arkansas has a 14.86 percent chance to win against LSU. That will be our (a).

Auburn, as a 21-point underdog, has a marginal 1 percent chance of winning.  That's our (b).

Forecasting ahead, if we say that Arkansas would be three point favorites against UGA (fair since Ark was favored by five against South Carolina, a nearly equivalent team, in Fayetteville), Georgia would have a 42.56% chance of winning. That's our (c).

And finally, for simplicity, we're going to say OK State will be favored by three at home, which means they'll have a 57.44 percent chance of winning. That's our (d).

Now, whenever we want to find the probabilities of two or more things occurring, we have to multiply the decimals. So we're going to multiple all the above numbers.

.1486 * .01 * .4256 * .5744 = 0.00036327.  That means that the odds of (2) occurring, Arkansas Winning, Bama losing, Arkansas losing to UGA, and Ok State beating OU, is .03 percent.  Not three percent, 1/33 of a percent.

Now, we'll quickly figure out the odds of (7) happening.

Review: a) Alabama loses, b) Ark Loses, c) OK State beats OU. We know all these already from the previous example. Only this time, it's Ark losing. Since they have a 14.86 percent chance to win, it follows they have a 85.14% chance to lose. Again, we're going to multiply them altogether.

.01 * .8514 * .5744 = 0.489%.  Again, not 48 percent, but less than half a percent.

There's one last piece of the puzzle to consider. We want the odds of (2) OR (7) occurring. Which means we're going to add the two values together, and subtract the odds of both of them happening.

.489 + .03  - (.489 * .03) = .50433 Percent.  

To round, it means that there is a half of a percent chance that the National Championship game is not two SEC teams. Half of one percent.

What does this mean? Well, for one, if anyone wants to bet you that it won't be a repeat SEC team, you can—if you get 200-1 odds or greater. Otherwise, you're getting ripped off.

Secondly, it isn't entirely accurate down to the hundredth of a decimal because we have to consider human error. That is, what if somehow pollsters vote Virginia Tech ahead of a one-loss LSU team? What if there's no way Oklahoma State can make title and this is all just gibberish?  This is what I was getting at with (3), its still impossible to project perfectly.

Breaking down the odds of every single possible title match requires other analysis and simulations to be done. So just remember this...

If Alabama beats Auburn, and LSU beats Arkansas, the two will square off again in New Orleans. The odds of those two things happening is 84.3 percent.

That last fact will probably make for better Thanksgiving Dinner table conversation.

Enjoy!  And remember, it's college football...anything can and has happened.