Week 11 Start 'Em Sit 'Em: NFL Quarterbacks to Start in Cold Weather

Weather always affects how NFL quarterbacks manage their offenses, but not everybody's statistics will drop uncomfortably low in Week 11.

Omitting Thursday's Jets-Broncos thriller, there are 13 games remaining this fantasy week—eight of which will be played in chilly conditions.

I've chosen the best passer to play in each of those eight matchups.

Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) over Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

This first decision is not as obvious as you might think.

Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman said he feels he is a better quarterback this year compared to 2010 in an interview earlier in the week. The numbers tell another story.

He has already thrown 13 interceptions while totaling only nine touchdowns through as many starts.

On the other hand, he is passing the ball far more often in 2011, resulting in an increase in passing yards.

He faces a Green Bay Packers defense this week that always plays with a lead. Consequently, the Packers conservatively guard against huge gains, but forfeit a high number of short completions.

Aaron Rodgers has inhuman numbers this season and a magnificent receiving corps standing by. He is assured to produce in any weather.

So, although the MVP candidate is safer to start, expect Freeman to have a decent day as well.

Colt McCoy (Cleveland Browns) over Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville Jaguars)

There aren't many fantasy owners who care about this game. If they do, it's only because they are starting Maurice Jones-Drew or one of these teams' defenses.

Both the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars rank among the NFL's best in passing yards allowed.

Cleveland's Colt McCoy will once again be without running back Peyton Hillis, but at least he completes more than half his passes.

Go with McCoy, mainly because Blaine Gabbert is horrific.

Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals) over Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)

Joe Flacco is a better quarterback than Andy Dalton, and I write that with confidence despite the 2011 statistics.

Still, Dalton is a better start in Week 11.

This will be the game that Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron realizes that when the team runs, it wins. Running back Ray Rice will get a lot of touches early, Baltimore will build a lead, and the Ravens will just keep the ball safe on the ground in the second half.

Expect Joe Flacco to throw 20-25 passes, not a zillion like he did during last week's loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

Dalton won't necessarily have a great performance, but desperation attempts late in the game will get him extra yardage, and probably an interception, too.

Ultimately, neither quarterback seems to be a great choice here.

Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) over Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins)

Don't overthink this one.

Tony Romo is a prolific passer. Even if Dallas consistently feeds it to DeMarco Murray, Romo will get at least a dozen completions to Jason Witten and Dez Bryant.

The Cowboys don't have effective kick/punt returners, but that will help Romo's value by giving him long fields to work with.

Rex Grossman is who he is, plain and simple. Stay away from him!

Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers) over Kevin Kolb (Arizona Cardinals)

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb will probably start for the first time since Week 8, but I don't think he wants to.

The San Francisco 49ers' defense is fantastic; dominant enough against the run to make this choice very difficult.

Arizona's rushing attack is mediocre. Against the league's best run-stopping defense, will the Cardinals even try to establish it?

Kolb will pass a lot and likely turn the ball over on a third-and-long conversion attempt (there will be plenty of them).

Alex Smith doesn't throw very often, but how will Frank Gore's health influence that?

Smith has made safe, smart decisions in 2011. That should continue at home.

Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears) over Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers)

Philip Rivers has been a frustrating enigma for the San Diego Chargers through nine games. The feeling is mutual among fantasy owners who drafted him early this summer.

His track record of outstanding quarterback play insists that a turnaround is inevitable, but that argument has been uttered every week. His inexplicable slump has raged on anyway.

Also, keep in mind that he hasn't played in frigid weather since last January.

Chicago Bears starter Jay Cutler doesn't attempt as many passes as Rivers and fewer total yards are to be expected from him.

Cutler has been as inaccurate as ever in 2011, but he's making smarter choices, too. He has thrown only six picks compared to Rivers' 15.

If the Chargers persist with their poor tackling, several short tosses could turn into touchdowns for Cutler and Co.

I'll say that both passers put up good numbers with Cutler's being slightly superior.

Eli Manning (New York Giants) over Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles)

Overall, the Philadelphia Eagles' 2011 ineptitude has been shocking.

However, I did not fall for the "Michael Vick is a superstar" ruse last season and am therefore not stunned by his recent struggles.

Vick was never as accurate as his six-interception 2010 season suggested.

On Sunday night, he'll have deep threat Desean Jackson available to boost his numbers. Head-to-head with Eli Manning, Vick will benefit from his rushing ability.

Remember, though, that he damaged a couple ribs last week. I'm sure he'll approach this game cautiously so as to not worsen the injury.

Manning will have to be careful for another reason. With the plethora of defensive talent in Philadelphia's secondary, he won't be targeting Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and his receiving corps as much as usual, or else risk turnovers.

Unless running back Ahmad Bradshaw returns to the starting lineup, Manning will have plenty of pass attempts to rack up yardage.

Tom Brady (New England Patriots) over Tyler Palko (Kansas City Chiefs)

There isn't much of a comparison here.

Tom Brady and Tyler Palko both have extraordinary career completion percentages. Then again, Palko has only attempted 13 passes in the NFL.

From a fantasy perspective, Palko is fortunate to have drawn the New England Patriots. Their defense has been carved up by opposing quarterbacks.

In all seriousness, though, leave Palko alone.

Brady has started several seasons' worth of cold weather games and fared well in the majority. He has more weapons at his disposal than does his Kansas City counterpart and appears to be completely healthy.

Will the Monday night spotlight faze him? Doubtful. Brady christened the 2011 MNF season with 517 passing yards and four touchdowns in Week 1!

That warm evening in Miami will bear minimal resemblance to the upcoming Chiefs/Patriots game, but Brady does not consider the thermometer's input before taking the field. He'll have typically excellent production.