Jets vs. Broncos: Stat and Score Predictions for Thursday Night Football
On Thursday night, the New York Jets visit the Denver Broncos in a must-win game for each to remain alive in the playoff hunt.
The Jets are looking to earn an AFC wild-card spot for the third consecutive season since getting swept by the Patriots has dimmed any shot for a division title. As for Denver, the Broncos come in at 4-5, but just one game back of Oakland in the AFC West, along with Kansas City and San Diego.
With two divisional games remaining against the Chiefs (home) and Chargers (away), Denver's hopes are still alive for a playoff spot and a division title.
So when the game kicks off, here are the stat predictions for each offense and defense as well as a final score in the Mile High City.
Jets Offense
1 of 5According to Brian Costello of The New York Post, the Jets won't be fully loaded on offense heading into the Mile High City.
""Running back LaDainian Tomlinson and wide receiver Jeremy Kerley stayed in New Jersey yesterday, nursing knee injuries, and will not play tonight against the Broncos. That leaves the Jets without two key pieces of their offense."
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That being said, it's only going to make things tougher on a Jets offense that struggles to move the ball anyway. Heading into Week 11, the Jets rank No. 20 in passing and No. 24 in rushing offense (averaging 315 total yards per game).
Even against mediocre defenses, New York hasn't been able to move the ball consistently, and they're being limited even more this week. To that end, RB Shonn Greene will be expected to run the rock between the offensive tackles.
We're talking dives, traps, powers and maybe a quick delay. Tomlinson is more of the finesse back and the recipient of draws, tosses and counters, which isn't Greene's forte. Then again, we may see some of that from Joe McKnight.
In the passing game, Sanchez won't be taking long drops because Broncos rookie LB Von Miller and DL Elvis Dumervil will provide pressure all game long. So, don't expect any seven-step drops from Sanchez to go deep. But the occasional fade to WR Plaxico Burress will suffice.
Stats
Passing: 240 yards on 34 attempts, one TD, one INT
Rushing: 105 yards on 27 carries
Receiving: 240 yards on 21 receptions, one TD
Broncos Offense
2 of 5Despite having a status still uncertain, Broncos RB Willis McGahee is feeling optimistic about playing. According to The Sports Xchange of The Orlando Sentinel, McGahee says he's not worried.
""I think it's going to be good," he said. "I'm not worried about it, so I don't think you should worry about it. Physically, I always feel I'm ready," said McGahee. "You never know until you're out there."
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That being said, Denver has to look at this two ways, one with and one without McGahee. Obviously the Broncos will be better off with him, as their No. 2 ranked rushing offense is rather dynamic when you add in Tim Tebow.
As for their passing game, well, don't be surprised if Denver throws the ball less than 10 times even without McGahee. The question is whether Denver's lack of weaponry in the passing game will be effective enough to get open against the Jets pass defense, which ranks No. 8 in the NFL.
Nonetheless, the Broncos have no shot to move the ball unless they develop and establish the ground game. From QB powers to jump passes, quick screens and tosses, Denver needs to do everything they can to keep Rex Ryan's defense off balance.
Because once CB Darrelle Revis gets zoned in, no one is getting open, and no one is running the ball with success on his side.
Stats
Passing: 65 yards on nine attempts, two INTs
Rushing: 170 yards on 40 carries, one TD
Receiving: 65 yards on four receptions
Jets Defense
3 of 5Defending the pass is obviously the Jets' specialty. However, although they've somewhat improved in defending the run, they still allow almost 120 rush yards per game.
To that end, we can't expect the Broncos and their No. 31 ranked passing offense to have much success, if any, against Darrelle Revis, Jim Leonhard and Antonio Cromartie.
However, Denver can move the ball on the ground well enough to give themselves a few scoring opportunities. The Jets defense needs to lock down into man coverage and stack the box to stop the run.
When facing Tim Tebow, you won't beat him unless you force him into many passing situations. Therefore, expect a lot of blitzing and some of the more confusing defensive alignments from coach Rex Ryan.
Tebow has never faced a defense such as the Jets before because last season he was limited in playing time. This time around, Tim will be more prepared, but he must pose as a respected passing threat early on, or else his ground game will suffer.
Stats
Sacks: Three
INTs: Two
Forced Fumbles/Recoveries: Two/One
Tackles For Loss: Eight
Broncos Defense
4 of 5Since the Jets are without RB LaDainain Tomlinson and WR Jeremy Kerley, expect the Broncos to send rookie LB Von Miller at Mark Sanchez quite often.
Currently, Miller has compiled eight sacks and 38 tackles to go with two forced fumbles. He's arguably the best defensive rookie this season, and with a lackluster offense to begin with, Miller will have a field day against an offense that lacks in pass protection.
Elsewhere, New York must be aware of DL Elvis Dumervil and safety Brian Dawkins. Dawkins likes to play up near the line of scrimmage to stop the run, and Dumervil is one of the better sack-masters in the NFL, but has seen a lot of double-teams and dealt with a few injuries this season and last.
Make no mistake about it, Denver has a much improved defense compared to the beginning of the year. Sanchez will be under duress for most of the night, and the running game will suffer as well. That said, the Jets best hope to move the ball well is on short and quick passing plays that get Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress in the open field.
Stats
Sacks: Six
INTs: One
Force Fumbles/Recoveries: One/One
Tackles For Loss: Six
Prediction
5 of 5Since it's going to be a defensive battle, the game will come down to special teams and field position.
The Broncos have the better ground game but a much, much worse passing game. Also, Denver has a threatening pass rush, whereas the Jets pass defense will blanket Tebow's targets all game long.
That being said, Denver controls the clock and has a better kicker in Matt Prater, who also can hit FGs from further away. The only problem for the Broncos, though, is that they're just 1-3 at home. But then again, New York is only 1-3 on the road.
Hence, it all comes down to the fans and home-field advantage. Denver gets the win because of better special teams and momentum from Week 10 leading in, whereas New York was embarrassed at home against New England.
Prediction
Denver Broncos 16, New York Jets 13
Be sure to check out John on Bleacher Report.
You can follow him on Twitter @Sportswriter27.
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