3 Free Agency Plans for the Toronto Blue Jays This Offseason

There has been and will continue to be a lot of speculation about what the Toronto Blue Jays should do this off-season. Ever since Alex Anthopolous took over the job as Jays GM, there has been a growing buzz around the city and on the web for Jays fans.

That buzz is directly related to the fact that Anthopolous is building this team into a contender. Not just for next year, but for years to come. After last season we saw some key pieces fall into place; Jose Bautista is the face of the franchise and their main source of offense.

Brett Lawrie, although he only played for a little under two months, showed he is ready for The Show. Rickey Romero can anchor a rotation. Yunel Escobar developed into one of the best shortstops in the American League on both sides of the field. J.P. Arencibia can not only hit, he can call a mean game behind the plate. The depth of outfielders (in no particular order) in Colby Rasmus, Eric Thames, Rajai Davis, Travis Snider, Adam Lowen, and Anthony Gose is something every GM dreams of having. Anthopolous has set this team up carefully and considering what he inherited. It’s time now to take a few more steps toward the ultimate goal.

Here are three separate “free agency plans” that could potentially helop make them immediate contenders in 2012. I know that Anthopolous likes to go the trade route more, but Rogers ownership has stated they have money and if they think it’s right, they will spend it.

If the Blue Jays only go after free agents this off-season then they need to get; a) One or two starters, b) A middle-of-the order bat c) A set-up man and a closer.

I didn’t think the Blue Jays needed a second baseman because I would just prefer to keep Mike McCoy in that spot for one year before they figure out what to do with Yunel Escobar and Adeiny Hechavarria. Why McCoy? The guy deserves it and it would be a very cheap one-year solution and hey, the Jays had Manuel Lee playing shortstop in 1992.

 Here are the three plans. 

Plan a- One Starter: Either Yu Darvish........

If the Blue Jays want to be more economical and not overspend too much.

I have never seen Yu Darvish pitch (but then neither have most North Americans since he’s only played in Japan), but according to all the reports he is legitimate. Better than Dice-K some say, which is a good thing because Dice-k has flamed out rather quickly after all that money the Boston Red Sox spent. If the price is right for the Blue Jays, this could open up other possibilities off the field, too.

The Marketing team would have a field day by making him the face of the franchise for the Japanese and Iranian baseball fans of Toronto. Up to this point there have been very few Blue Jays who are of Asian descent and for a team who is looking to bring in new fans, having a player they can easily identify with can only benefit your team.

Look at Ichiro Suzuki of the Seattle Mariners; whenever he plays in Toronto, flocks of Japanese fans come to see him play. Now how about a guy that will pitch for you every five days that can relate to that fan base?

Aside from his ethnicity, Darvish brings a great resume to the Jays. In the Nippon Professional Baseball League he has a record of 98-33, an ERA of 1.99 and 1259 strikeouts. He has two MVP Awards along with five all-star game appearances - and he’s only 25.

 If the Jays could sign him, he would mesh with the young clubhouse they currently have, aside from the language barrier, which would not be too much of a problem considering Don Wakamatsu is the bench coach. Plus, they already have some interpreters for some of the young Latino players they have as well.

.....or Mark Buehrle

Mark Buehrle, on the other hand, would bring plenty experience.

To go along with a 161-119 record, Buehrle has; ERA of 3.83, 1396 strikeouts, a perfect game, a no-hitter and - oh yeah - a World Series Ring.

At the age of 32 Buehrle will probably be looking for one more long-term contract to get him to the 38-to-40-year-old range. That would mean committing at least six years of salary to him and his numbers have been down recently. But he has shown in the past what he is capable of, when playing on a good team.

The Blue Jays are quickly starting to become better than just a good team. Remember: Jack Morris was 37 when he came to the Blue Jays and he won a career-high 21 games in 1992.  Any team can benefit from having Buehrle in their rotation and I think the Jays should jump at the chance to sign a veteran leader.

Projected Rotation

Rickey Romero, Yu Darvish or Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Henderson Alvarez

Plan a- Middle of the Linup Bat: David Ortiz

David Ortiz is not the best bat on the free-agent market right now. However, I really can’t see the Blue Jays signing either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder. That being said, I think Ortiz would be the next in line to go to.

 I know he his getting older (36 next season) but his power numbers have been consistent to this point (20 or more homeruns for the last 10 seasons) and even though his RBI numbers have dipped into the high 90’s, that would still be more than enough to threaten opposing pitchers if he is batting behind Bautista. I didn’t mind the Blue Jays offence that much last year; you could see the work in progress as Farrell managed his hitters better over the course of the year.

But if the Jays want to jump into that contention spotlight they need a fearsome 1-2 punch in the middle. I believe Ortiz is the best to provide that when you factor in cost and playing time. If you sign Pujols or Fielder they would expect to play first over Adam Lind every day and we all saw how poorly Lind performed as a DH in 2010 and how he benefited from being out on the field in 2011. Although his numbers trailed off, I think he will be in better shape this year.

If the Jays are hoping to keep Lind at first and looking for a big bat, then Ortiz is the man. And I would really prefer to have Ortiz in the DH spot over Edwin Encarnation. Not to mention Ortiz will already know Manager John Farrell.

Potential opening day lineup:

Eric Thames (LF), Colby Rasmus (CF) Jose Bautista (RF), David Ortiz (DH), Adam Lind (1B), Brett Lawrie (3B), Yunel Escobar (SS), J.P. Arencibia (C), Mike McCoy (2B).

Plan A: A Setup Man: Jonathan Broxton

Jonathan Broxton was a fantastic closer just a few years ago before he hurt his shoulder. He came back last year looked decent toward the end of the year in the set-up role. The Blue Jays need a much better one-two punch than Rauch and Francisco and they need to actually determine who their closer is, unlike last year when they cycled through several players.

Broxton could be a bargain for any team looking for a short-term closing solution. However, I think Broxton could be that set-up man that makes playing against the Jays a seven-inning game if they find the right man to close.

Plan a- a Closer: Ryan Madson

Ryan Madson is coming off his first year as a full-time closer. Before that he was Brad Lidges’ set-up man, and a good one at that. Madson made 62 appearances this year and ran up 32 saves with an ERA of 2.37.

I know the last time the Blue Jays signed a player who was coming off his first year as a closer, it didn’t work out to well (B.J. Ryan). But if the Blue Jays want to convert at least half of those 25 blown saves last year into wins, they are going to need to spend a little money.

With the Phillies having signed Jonathan Papelbon earlier this week, Ryan Madson is looking for a new home. It would be nice if the Blue Jays could reserve one of those new condos on Lakeshore for him.

Plan B: Two Starters: C.J. Wilson................

At 30 years of age, C.J. Wilson is coming off two great seasons, and two World Series appearances. He would fit in well behind a hard-throwing righty in the rotation like Brandon Morrow or Henderson Alvarez. 

The one knock against Wilson is that he has only been in the rotation for two seasons. But that shouldn’t scare the Jays away as he has compiled a 31-15 record over that time. He has benefited from a powerful Rangers lineup, but his ERA was better this year at 2.94 than last year at 3.35.

He is showing continual progress the more he pitches, and although he broke down in the World Series, you can either get stronger and learn from it, or just give up. I don’t think Wilson will just give up. The Blue Jays would be lucky to have him in their rotation as another team leader that has the experience they lack.

....and Roy Oswalt

Roy Oswalt may have only won nine games last year, but he kept his ERA under 4.00. At 34 years old he has a ton of experience first with the Houston Astros playoff runs and then the last two years with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Although he has never pitched in the American League he is a crafty right-hander who would figure things out quickly. He will be sought-after by a lot of teams including the Phillies, but the Blue Jays again have money to spend and are looking for veteran leadership. Similar to the Mark Buehrle scenario, they could sign Oswalt to a multi-year contract and reap the rewards of a clubhouse leader with World Series experience.

Rickey Romero, Roy Oswalt, C.J. Wilson, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil

Plan B- Middle of the lineup bat: Prince Fielder

Why is this not plan A?

As I said in plan A I don’t think the Blue Jays will spend the money right now on a big name free agent who will make more money than Jose Bautista.

 But if they come out and say let’s go after Fielder regardless of the price, so be it.

Again the argument could be said that he would take over the first base job and push Adam Lind to the bench. Many people might think “so what, you’re taking Lind over Fielder?” and Lind has shown he can hit better when he fields.

If Fielder comes to Toronto there would be no way of him sitting through most of the games. You’re not going to pay that much money to only have the guy hit. That would leave a big hole in the DH position and again I don’t want to see it filled by Edwin Encarantion.

If Lind could perform in the DH role and Fielder wouldn’t mind playing that spot twice a week then this would be the ideal solution. But for what the Jays have and for what they are trying to do I don’t see this being a fit. In the perfect world though here’s what their lineup would look like.

Eric Thames (LF), Colby Rasmus (CF) Jose Bautista (RF), Prince Fielder (1B), Adam Lind (DH), Brett Lawrie (3B), Yunel Escobar (SS), J.P. Arencibia (C), Mike McCoy (2B).

Plan B-A setup man: Joe Nathan

Joe Nathan is coming off an injury year. Although he recovered mid-way through the season I would not want him closing out games.

However, he knows the mentality it takes to play that position. He is familiar with the American League. He has compiled 261 saves through an 11-year career that saw him as a starting pitcher in his first four years. His career ERA sits at 2.87 which is fantastic stuff for a late-inning reliever.

I think Joe Nathan if he stays healthy can be a great addition to a Jays bullpen that needs an overhaul. The one thing going against him is undergoing surgery in the last year. Can the Jays take a risk on yet another guy who is looking to have a bounce back year? He will have to prove that his numbers down the stretch were not a fluke.

Plan B- a closer: Heath Bell

Heath Bell is a few years younger than Nathan, but he has been very consistent the last few years putting together at least 40 saves. That kind of consistency is what has lacked since B.J. Ryan’s first year.

The knock on Bell is his asking price potentially being too much. Of course, in this plan if you’re going to spend money on Prince Fielder how much can Heath Bell cost you?

The point is, Bell would be very reliable at the back end. Although his 3.06 career ERA is a little higher than you want in a closer, he has kept his season ERA below 2.80 the last two years.

Plan C- One or Two Starters: Either Eric Bedard Or...........

Plan C – If the Blue Jays want to look for bargain or undervalued talent.

Eric Bedard has never been to the post-season. He has never won a Cy-young award or pitched more than 200 innings in a single season. What he does have is knowledge of the American league and leadership.

With a record of only 56-50 it reminds me of the A.J. Burnett signing, although A.J. was younger. But Bedard has not had the fortune of playing on good teams. Last year he did struggle with Boston, but then again the whole team struggled at that point in the year. I think if he can come back to his home country and get a fresh start he can provide some reliable pitching.

His career ERA sits at 3.70, but he has recorded at least 120 strikeouts in 7 of his 8 years in the big leagues, and that’s counting the years he was injured. If the Blue Jays need a pitcher who can help eat innings and give a solid performance when called upon if they can’t land a “top tier” free-agent, they should look for Eric Bedard.

....or Jeff Francis

A quick look at Jeff Francis’s stats at you might say YIKES! A career ERA of 4.78 and a sub .500 record of 61-66 is nothing to boast about. But it seemed as if just as Francis was hitting his prime he got injured - and he has yet to recover from it.

Last year in Kansas City he was 6-16, but again that was Kansas City and I don’t know how much his offense helped him. That career ERA is also thanks in large part to playing at Coors Field, a hitter-friendly park. If you take that into account you might say he hasn’t been too bad.

Like Bedard, Francis is a Canadian and it would be fun to watch a Canadian take the mound every five days while another Canadian in Brett Lawrie-manned third base. Again if the Jays want to try the ‘reclamation project’ they should look at signing Francis as he too could only benefit from having a good lineup to pitch for.

Rickey Romero, Brandon Morrow, Jeff Francis, Henderson Alvarez, Brett Cecil

or

Rickey Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Eric Bedard, Henderson Alvarez

Plan C - Middle of the lineup bat: Josh Willingham

If it’s one thing we know about baseball, it’s that power is never undervalued and teams will overpay for a piece of it. But when you look at what’s on the market I think Josh Willingham has a good chance of being over-looked and that maybe the best solution for the Jays in this category.

Willingham is coming off a career year posting 29 home runs for the Oakland Athletics. Although he only hit .246 it’s looking almost like an Aaron Hill situation. However, Willingham has been a little more consistent over his eight seasons in power numbers than Hill. Also, Willingham played in the outfield and can sub at first base if necessary and play the DH role.

Again this would be a guy that can slot in behind Bautista and force pitchers to pitch. The benefit here is he can come out of the DH role and play multiple positions. I’m sure I’m not the only person who can see this in Willingham and I know he will get some good contract offers, but if the Jays want to get a good player that won’t make a huge dent in their money book, then they should sign Willingham.

Eric Thames (DH), Colby Rasmus (CF) Jose Bautista (RF), Josh Willingham (LF), Adam Lind (1B), Brett Lawrie (3B), Yunel Escobar (SS), J.P. Arencibia (C), Mike McCoy (2B).

Plan C - A setup man: David Aardsma

David Aardsma didn’t save a game in his first four big league seasons. Then, in the next two, he saved a combined 69. Then he got injured.

Aardsma is looking for at least a one year deal with a team who wants to take a chance on a rehabbing pitcher. I like Aardsma in the setup role as it won’t cost the Jays too much money and it wouldn’t put an enormous amount of pressure on Aardsma right after being injured.

If the Jays can sign him at a low cost it will benefit the team and Aardsma’s career if he plays well. If he doesn’t overachieve, the Jays can say they didn’t over-pay.

Plan C- A closer: Brad Lidge

Brad Lidge is also coming off an injury-plagued season. His last contract saw him earn $36 million over three years. I don’t think the market will inflate that much to have someone need him at that kind of a price.

Again, the Phillies just signed Paplebon and I doubt they have room for Lidge. Lidge has been a closer for a longer time than Aardsma and he clearly has the mentality for it. Again if the Jays can sign him at a low cost they should do it just to see if Lidge can get back to his old form.

But I would be a little bit worried if they handed out two big contracts to two recently injured relievers when your whole fan base is expecting to see an upgrade in that area in the next year.