Revisiting the Entire Preseason AP Top 25

Every year around August, we have the same argument over the same set of questions—should preseason polls exist? What do they mean? Are they reasonable? Are they predictions or judgements on preseason status? Why doesn't anyone throw a college football kickoff party in a strip club and call it The Preseason Pole?

The correct answer is they don't matter, but are and will always be as essential to college football culture as cheating, corruption and Australian punters flagged for excessive taunting.

(I still have no answer for the last question.)

What we can do, however, is look back, after a dozen weeks of games, and figure out why teams were ranked where they were and how we got to today's status quo. My only real regret in re-reviewing the preseason AP Top 25 (below) is that Texas was No. 26 and probably would've been my favorite capsule to write. Let's get started!

25. USC (Preseason 25, Current 18)

Why 25?

An 8-5 2010 season with a couple of bad losses and serious depth/experience questions made it reasonable to think that Trojans would have a tough time cracking the Top 20. Also, a 2011 schedule featuring road games at Arizona State, Cal, Notre Dame and Oregon did very little to ease the minds of skeptical voters.

Why 18?

Despite one loss that seems worse and worse by the week (ASU) and another (Stanford) that may have left more impressed than disappointed, the Trojans, at least when looking at their starters, are more consistent and balanced offensively than many had thought and are getting much better play from a relatively thin (depth-wise) defensive line than was thought possible in August.

24. West Virginia (Preseason 24, Current N/R)

Why 24? 

It was presumed that, with Dana Holgorsen in the mix—as offensive coordinator or head coach—the Mountaineers offense would match and/or exceed the production of their defense, a unit that’s been dominant, though unheralded, these past few years in the Big East. It seemed reasonable enough considering both the returning skill position talent and how quickly Holgorsen has had success during recent stops in Houston and Stillwater.

Why N/R?

For the most part, the offense has held up its end of the bargain, though without the rushing attack Holgorsen had available at Oklahoma State, West Virginia has struggled with short fields in the red zone. Defensively, West Virginia’s run defense has gone from first in the conference against the run (2.78 y/c, two TDs in conference in 2010) to seventh (3.99 y/c, 10 TDs so far in Big East play). That hurts.

23. Auburn (Preseason 23, Current N/R)

Why 23?

Despite losses nearly everywhere on the field, it wasn’t unreasonable to think that offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn could coach up new QB Barrett Trotter to at least be competent in handing the ball off to sure-thing RB Michael Dyer, with or without a suitable offensive line. The prevailing thought was that Auburn could outscore enough people and develop players to the point that they’d be a threat most weeks.

Why N/R?

A subpar pass defense against SEC teams (in a down passing conference) and an even subber-par run defense (a problem in the SEC) make it very difficult for new Auburn QBs to get comfortable and in a natural rhythm, no matter how thoroughly average they clearly are the moment.

22. Florida (Preseason 22, Current N/R)

Why 22?

Will Muschamp as the new head coach and in charge of a talented (but young) defense? Charlie Weis in charge of offense and developing QBs? Stupid speed in the backfield? Nobody was thinking BCS, but it seemed like they’d be good enough to worry about every week, right? Right?

Why N/R?

Wrong. Injuries, bad play-calling and unprepared offensive personnel lead to a lot of things, but wins in the SEC do not fall under that umbrella. Defensively, the Gators have shown flashes for drives at a time to at least ugly up the game a bit, but ultimately haven’t been able to sustain or win ugly via the defense. When the good balances out the not-so-good, we’re left with mediocre, rudderless and not worthy of a number before their name.

21. Missouri (Preseason 21, Current N/R)

Why 21?

Coming off a 10-win 2010 featuring another high-level Gary Pinkel-tutored QB (Blaine Gabbert), wins over Oklahoma and Texas A&M (when that mattered) and a defense that did much more to help the Tigers than hurt them, optimism abounded that an impressive offseason from new QB James Franklin would keep Missouri relevant.

Why N/R?

It all started going wrong on that one Friday night with everyone learning how tall and short ASU QB Brock Osweiler and WR Aaron Pflugrad were/are. Truthfully, they’ve only really been thoroughly outclassed by Oklahoma State and have had the distinct disappointment of simply being slightly worse than the four other teams they’ve lost to. Mizzou’s reasonable competence in most facets of the game has basically resulted in the unfortunate problem of being just solid enough to be worrisome, but not consistently threatening.

20. Mississippi State (Preseason 20, Current N/R)

Why 20?

In what looked like a deep, crowded SEC West field, the Bulldogs appeared to be good enough to survive and remain ranked, but still outclassed by the likes of Arkansas, Alabama and LSU. Their dominating win against Michigan in the Gator Bowl was reason enough to believe there was a good chance the best SEC backfield (QB Chris Relf and RB Vick Ballard) played in Starkville.

Why N/R?

It turns out Michigan’s 2010 defense wildly inflates the merits of, well, everyone playing against the 2010 Michigan defense. Also, SEC West defenses are skilled enough to make offenses uncomfortable in their comfort zone. It didn’t help that the defense lost key defensive linemen and coordinator Manny Diaz. That can catch up.

19. Georgia (Preseason 19, Current 14)

Why 19?

Despite a 6-7 2010 record, there was a strong belief in QB Aaron Murray’s ability to make big plays behind an improving offensive line and give true freshman RB Isaiah Crowell time to learn the SEC ropes. Also, enough talent and size was returning or being infused into the defense to give hope that Georgia’s second year in the 3-4 would be more fruitful during a schedule sans LSU, Alabama and Arkansas.

Why 14?

After some panic post-Boise State and South Carolina, Georgia’s rolled off eight straight wins and sits atop the SEC East—in prime position to (probably) take on LSU in an SEC championship game. Even though there’s no one win outside of Auburn (maybe) that could be considered telling, the defense is much improved, proving to be just as good against the run within the SEC as Alabama and LSU. Aaron Murray leads the conference in passing yards and TDs.

18. Ohio State (Preseason 18, Current N/R)

Why 18?

Following an offseason of, well, change, it was assumed that the Bucks would have enough talent and experienced coaches on hand to make their way through a relatively easy early schedule until they got key contributors back from suspension. Eventually, the thinking went that the young talent would develop around some of the bigger question marks (QB, WR, DL) and Ohio State would be part of the way back to challenging for a B1G crown.

Why N/R?

It turns out offense matters, even in the B1G. QB Joe Bauserman was particularly bad after some early success, and at least at first, so was touted true freshman QB Braxton Miller. After stringing together a couple of nice/ugly wins against Illinois and Wisconsin, a loss to Purdue (fourth loss of 2011) means Ohio State still isn’t fully trending in the right direction. At the very least, Miller and an improving defensive front should mean that the 2012 squad is due for a leap.

17. Michigan State (Preseason 17, Current 12)

Why 17?

Even post-whatever happened in the Capital One Bowl, it made sense to think that if QB Kirk Cousins, his returning skill players and a monstrous Spartan defensive line could navigate a midseason stretch that included Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska, they’d again be in contention for a conference crown.

Why 12?

They navigated! The Spartans dropped games to Notre Dame and Nebraska, but only one of those is in-conference, and technically they’re still undefeated against 2010 Big Ten teams. The defensive front is salty (sometimes too much so) and consistently dominant, Cousins and WR B.J. Cunningham are the best aerial tandem in the conference and the No. 12 before their name should move up, as they close the season with Indiana and Northwestern.

16. Notre Dame (Preseason 16, Current 24)

Why 16?

Pretty much everyone came back from a SUN BOWL CHAMPION TEAM. The defense improved dramatically over the course of 2010 and added blue-chippers to the defensive line to open up blitzing lanes for Manti Te’o and company in the linebacking corps. It was also assumed/confirmed that star WR Michael Floyd would only be punished for his alcohol indiscretions in a way that wouldn’t affect Notre Dame on the field. Whew!

Why 24?

As the Irish quickly learned against South Florida (!) and Michigan, it turns out that turnovers, particularly when they occur in the red zone, are problematic for teams trying to win more games than not. Following Notre Dame’s helmet doink-fest against the Bulls, things seemed to even out for ND, with the lone loss since early September coming against USC—disappointing, but understandable. Their return (post-USC) to the Top 25 has been aided by the convenient timing of the ACC portion of their schedule. Lucky.

15. Arkansas (Preseason 15, Current 6)

Why 15?

The Hogs’ preseason ranking was probably deflated due to their conference and division. QB Tyler Wilson was well thought-of after quality playing time against Auburn in 2010. Knile Davis (pre-injury) was expected to continue singlehandedly making Arkansas the most balanced offensive team in the division. Even though there were defensive questions, Arkansas appeared to have enough returning talent on offense to be nearly as good on that side of the ball as anyone on the other.

Why 6?

Not to take anything away from what looks to be a particularly good team, but a spot in the SEC West and not playing LSU until the final week of the season isn’t the worst thing to happen to a team’s ranking and overall health. In fairness to Arkansas, it's beaten all non-Alabama comers in a reasonably difficult (read: down) conference but hasn’t run away from anyone of any significance. The breaks have broken in the general direction of Fayetteville.

14. TCU (Preseason 14, Current 19)

Why 14?

Coming off a TCU Rose Bowl-winning season (not a normal phrase), Gary Patterson’s track record of producing annual defenses at or near the top of defensive stat rankings was good enough to be given the benefit of the doubt to at least be thought of highly, despite major losses (Dalton, Andy etc.) on both sides of the ball.

Why 19?

The notion of a smooth transition immediately was thrown out after Robert Griffin III quickly went from being pretty good to an RGIII QB meme over the course of a long night for TCU in Waco. Since the early loss to Baylor, though, TCU has responded well, with its lone loss after the Baylor shootout to SMU in OT. Undefeated in conference play (including the recent win at Boise State), the Horned Frogs should lay claim to yet another Mountain West championship. Not too shabby. I suppose Mr. Patterson will continue to receive doubt benefits.

13. Virginia Tech (Preseason 13, Current 9)

Why 13?

Even though the Hokies are perfectly content to every year lose early in the non-conference portion of their schedule and then humble everyone or almost everyone around them in October and November, many thought it’d be Florida State’s year to supplant the Hokies atop the ACC. In any case, voters simply felt confident that Frank Beamer and staff had enough returning talent and recruited well enough to place them in the Top 15, with or without much actual consideration.

Why 9?

Nobody really wanted to take charge in the ACC, so Virginia Tech (again) decided to develop a new QB in Logan Thomas (converted TE!), ride an outstanding RB in David Wilson and count on a sound enough defense to outplay everyone (again). It could still lose the Coastal Division to Virginia, just like Frank Beamer might still dunk a basketball someday.

12. South Carolina (Preseason 12, Current 14)

Why 12?

The certainty of Marcus Lattimore running around, by, and through the SEC was probably enough to consider South Carolina a top 15 team, but throw in an experienced, though troubled QB in Stephen Garcia, a game-breaking WR in Alshon Jeffery, and defensive line working in 2011 #1 overall recruit DE Jadaveon Clowney into its rotation, and you have more than enough reasons to feel good about South Carolina. A comfortable place in the SEC without Alabama and LSU dates didn’t hurt, either.

Why 14?

The record and ranking aren’t fully honest about where exactly South Carolina is in mid-November. After losing Lattimore to a season-ending knee injury and Stephen Garcia to a school-ending Stephen Garcia situation, the Gamecocks’ offense has all but come to a halt. Lucky for them, though, just about everyone they’ve played has struggles not unlike their own, and Steve Spurrier’s squad has learned to win U-G-L-Y. The ‘Cocks aren’t to be taken that seriously, but winning by default is still winning.

11. Wisconsin (Preseason 11, Current 15)

Why 11?

After a big 2010 that saw the Badgers come THIS close to a Rose Bowl win, it became time to acknowledge Wisconsin as a perennial conference and top 12 threat. Even though they lost an efficient QB (Scott Tolzien), members of their dominant OL and All-American DE J.J. Watt, it became clear that the Badgers had reached the point where Brett Bielema could start simply inserting players into Wisconsin’s system without rebuilding for a year. Insert a more than adequate free agent Russell Wilson at QB and suddenly the Madison ceiling seemed even higher than usual.

Why 15?

Two last second road heaves into the end zone that somehow got caught punctuated both Badger losses. The Badgers were perhaps overvalued as they found themselves in the top five a few weeks into the season, but they certainly haven’t been outplayed this year. Russell Wilson has mostly been an enormously dynamic addition to the offense -- both QB rating and Y/A (alongside a conference-leading rushing attack) – not too shabby. There isn’t a chance Illinois or Penn State are excited about closing out their seasons against the Badger offense.

10. Nebraska (Preseason 10, Current 16)

Why 10?

An up and down offense returned most of its talent, including QB Taylor Martinez, who, when healthy, was as responsible for the ups as he has the downs when beat up. Defensively, Nebraska had three significant pieces returning in DT Jared Crick, LB Lavonte David, and CB Alfonzo Dennard. Even though the Huskers’ schedule in a new conference didn’t appear to be overwhelming advantageous, there was also a school of thought that the B1G wasn’t quite prepared for Nebraska’s uniquely oppressive defense.

Why 16?

Other than a terrible showing on the road against Wisconsin and a few missing quarters here or there, the offense (surprisingly) hasn’t been the biggest problem for the Huskers this fall. The defense, meanwhile, especially during stretches without Dennard (earlier) and Crick (ongoing, season-ending pectoral tear) has been much more inconsistent than expected, at least in the context of previous Blackshirt efforts. Immediately after a signature win over conference-leading Michigan State at home, they fell to a woeful Northwestern team in Lincoln. Even though the Huskers remain dangerous, they’re still very much a quarter-to-quarter question.

9. Oklahoma State (Preseason 9, Current 2)

Why 9?

Even with the Pokes losing Dana Holgorsen, their sudden rock star offensive coordinator and RB Kendall Hunter, 2010’s Big 12 Player of the Year, more than enough talent returned on the offensive side of the ball to think that the Cowboys could score and beat anyone on their schedule, especially with (because of new scheduling) Oklahoma making a return trip to Stillwater for the Bedlam game. Oh and one of the talent pieces has a Biletnikoff Award on his mantle and a legitimate adult throwing him hyper-accurate passes. The questions were mostly about the defense and the Cowboys’ lack of a BCS pedigree.

Why 2?

Holy Gundy does Oklahoma State score. Again. And then again. QB Brandon Weeden is as dangerous throwing the ball as anyone in the country and is the only one in his peer group (Luck, Jones, Keenum, Moore, Griffin III, Barkley, etc) that hasn’t lost. Surprisingly enough, the Cowboys, in a pass-happy conference, are leading the Big 12 in opposing QB rating, INTs, and are second in yards/attempt allowed. Without a conference championship game. all that truly stands in their way of a trip to New Orleans in early January are those pesky Sooners in early December.

8. Texas A&M (Preseason 8, Current N/R)

Why 8?

Closing a season winning six of seven, including wins over two top ten teams (Oklahoma and Nebraska) tend to lead to happy thoughts amongst those punching votes. Though they lost their best player (OLB Von Miller), the offense figured to take a leap with QB Ryan Tannehill fully ensconced in his starting role with a more-than-adequate backfield pairing of Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael. In addition, the schedule was reasonably navigable, with Oklahoma and (maybe) Kansas State presenting road challenges.

Why N/R?

Second halves of games matter. Trust me on this one. The Aggies played well enough to admire comfortable second half leads against Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas State and then disappeared skillfully enough to watch players in different colored uniforms celebrate postgame. The strange thing is that Texas A&M isn’t a terrible team – their numbers are pleasant enough, they simply have no sense of timing. Their best plays happen early and their worst attempts at stops happen late. That’s no way to live.

7. Stanford (Preseason 7, Current 8)

Why 7?

Considering the unexpected return of consensus #1 overall draft prospect Andrew Luck and the afterglow of a dominant Orange Bowl win over Virginia Tech, the Cardinal probably could’ve been ranked higher had they returned an ambitious coach and his coordinators. In any case, Luck, a strong line, solid running game, and a hearty percentage of the Cardinal defense simply made sense as a team to take seriously as one perfectly content to rip you apart in any number of ways.

Why 8?

A pillowy soft schedule pre-USC schedule had the Cardinal flirting with national championship attention until a faster, better-coached Oregon team out-ruthlessed Stanford in Palo Alto last weekend. Prior to the game, though, Stanford happily placed their boots on the collective neck of their schedule, simply outmuscling and outlasting futile attempts from lesser teams. Andrew Luck was and is impossibly accurate, the running game hasn’t disappointed, and the defense has been good enough, despite losing its heart and smeared eyeblack in MLB Shayne Skov. They remain an elite team, but perhaps not on the top tier of college football.

6. Florida State (Preseason 6, Current 23)

Why 6?

The Seminoles entered the season as the popular pick as college football’s team to make the leap into national prominence – coach Jimbo Fisher’s blue chippers were growing up, E.J. Manuel was taking over at QB, and the 'Noles had an early chance to assert themselves against an Oklahoma team making their way to Tallahassee. The potential of an experienced offense and an unfairly athletic defense was almost too much for anyone to ignore.

Why 23?

Well, getting hurt never helps, does it? When you pile a rash in injuries on top of a woefully unbalanced offense, consistency is the first thing to go. Defensively, Florida State’s front has been dominant, but health has taken its toll there, too. It’d be easy to simply write off Florida State as being overrated, but that’s not fault of theirs. Truthfully, they’re a beat-up team that lost to a top national team in Oklahoma, a top ten team on the road (Clemson), and played a particular bad game on the road against a feisty Wake Forest team. They’re not #6 good, but they’re probably not N/R bad either.

5. Boise State (Preseason 5, Current 10)

Why 5?

As long as Kellen Moore and Chris Petersen were in town and able to show up to the blue turf on Saturdays (and Thursdays and Fridays), it’d be impossible not to rank Boise State in the top eight or so going into the year. Add in an experienced defensive front and two dependable running backs, and there’s every reason in the world to believe the Broncos had a shot at running the Mountain West table (if they get by TCU) and every reason to believe they could run the season table if they could get by Georgia on opening night.

Why 10?

The Broncos seemed poised for another fun BCS argument in a few weeks before failing to alert their own secondary not to bite on TCU pump fakes. As dominant in nearly all areas of the game as Boise State was all year (including their Georgia victory), they were pretty much newcomers at playing a close game and depending on a kicker. They still belong in the top ten, but any chance at a BCS challenger of consequence is all but gone.

4. LSU (Preseason 4, Current 1)

Why 4?

No team, even Oklahoma, particularly stood out before the season started as being without important questions somewhere. Because of their recent defensive dominance, voters had faith that LSU could beat anyone on any given day, but questions at QB were simply too great to crown LSU off the bat. Also, a huge opening game against Oregon meant that voters could be proven wrong immediately if LSU came out flat and laid an egg.

Why 1?

No such egg has been seen since the start of the season. Even with Jordan Jefferson suspended and then relegated to change-of-pace QB duties, LSU has met all challenges with, well, old-fashioned beatdowns of the highest order. Convincing wins over Oregon, West Virginia, and Alabama have essentially ended all arguments about the country’s best team and the Tigers are all but penciled into a national championship game in early November.

3. Oregon (Preseason 3, Current 4)

Why 3?

After an undefeated regular season and loss in the BCS championship game, the Ducks not only brought back a considerable amount of talent and speed on offense, but they added some fresh speed in RB/WR De’Anthony Thomas for good measure. They took hits on defense, but there was confidence in the depth that got reps in 2010 that the dropoff would be fairly minimal, if not nonexistent. The biggest questions involved replacing the departing experience on both lines.

Why 4?

That opening night loss to LSU certainly set the Ducks back, but only for about an hour or so. They regrouped and basically just blew everyone out week after week, including a comfortable win on the road against Stanford. Even through injuries to QB Darron Thomas and LaMichael James, Oregon simply kept on rolling. Further, both lines and the defense have developed depth to the point that Oregon is 5^th in the nation in sacks/game and are second in the conference in rushing. They’re all but a sure thing to win the Pac-12 North.

2. Alabama (Preseason 2, Current 3)

Why 2?

The Tide had come off a disappointing season (for them), but suddenly all of the talented youth quickly became talented experience in the eyes of AP voters. The defense appeared to be stocked, and no matter the issues associated with bringing a new starting QB up to speed in such a high pressure situation, RBs Trent Richardson were there to take any and all weight off of either AJ McCarron or Philip Sims. The only real weakness was the fact that Alabama would have to weather LSU and the SEC West to get back to a title game.

Why 3?

If Alabama’s worse than LSU and Oklahoma State, it certainly isn’t by much. The only thing that can really be looked at negatively about Alabama after they’ve rather easily made their way through the non-LSU portion of their schedule is that they struggle offensively and on special teams when playing teams that are specifically as good defensively and on special teams as LSU. On any given day, they could beat anyone in the country and just may have the opportunity to do so once more.

1. Oklahoma (Preseason 1, Current 5)

Why 1?

The Sooners were a relatively easy pick for the top spot, but certainly not the shoe-in we’ve seen from other teams going into previous seasons. Considering the staggering depth at WR (in a pass-happy system) QB Landry Jones was a near lock to throw for 300 or so yards/game and RBs Roy Finch and Brennan Clay were assumed to be more than capable of taking over for departed star DeMarco Murray. Beyond the offensive fireworks, the Sooners would finally be healthy on defense, a major boost to not just the formerly injured players themselves, but also for schematic consistency. Schedule-wise, an early season visit to Florida State looked troubling, though not an emergency, and the Sooners appeared deep enough to weather a fairly navigable conference schedule. That said, even in August, the Bedlam game loomed larger than usual.

Why 5?

In what’s become a randomly occurring college football holiday, Oklahoma lost to a lesser team at night, though this time they made it fun and lost to Texas Tech in Norman. The Red Raider loss and unfortunate season-ending injuries to star WR Ryan Broyles and surprise star RB Dominique Whaley aside, Oklahoma is still very much an elite 2011 team, with convincing wins over Missouri, Texas, Florida State, Kansas State, and Texas A&M. They’re still alive for a BCS berth with or without a win over Oklahoma State in a Bedlam game that promises to perhaps be the most significant rivalry game of the year.

Dan Rubenstein co-hosts The Solid Verbal college football podcast and can be followed on Twitter here.