Heisman Trophy Race: Why Andrew Luck Will Win

The CFB blogosphere is replete with talk this week of a newly competitive race for the Heisman Trophy after Stanford's loss to Oregon, where QB Andrew Luck came up short for only the second time in his last 23 games as the Cardinal's starter.

The pundits may be overlooking at least five reasons why Luck will win the Heisman.

1. Favorable schedule

Barring an unforeseen collapse by Oregon, Luck’s final two regular season games will be Saturday against Cal in the 114th Big Game and on Thanksgiving weekend against Notre Dame.

Last year, Luck lit up the Cal Golden Bears, completing 16 of 20 passes for 235 yards (11.8 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns in the Cardinal’s 48-14 romp. He also added a highlight-reel 58-yard run, featuring a pulverizing forearm to Cal DB Sean Cattouse. 

Luck has enjoyed similar success against Notre Dame. In 2009, he was an efficient 14-of-20 for 198 yards (9.9 YPA) in leading Stanford to a 45-38 win.  In 2010, he led the Cardinal to a 37-14 triumph in South Bend, completing 19-of-32 for 238 yards and a touchdown. 

Look for Luck to post big numbers in leading Stanford to a pair of convincing season-ending victories and a probable BCS bowl berth.

2. Bounce back

Luck and Stanford suffered only one loss in 2010, at the hands of Oregon. Unfazed, Luck bounced back the following week with a scintillating performance in Stanford’s 38-35 defeat of USC, completing 20 of 24 passes for 285 yards (almost 12 YPA) and three touchdowns. 

Luck’s near-perfect QB performance was almost overshadowed by his crushing tackle of USC DB Shareece Wright, who scooped up a Stepfan Taylor fumble and had visions of paydirt—until he was knocked silly by Luck. 

As in 2010, the Cardinal last weekend again couldn’t solve the Oregon Ducks’ fast-break offense and ended up with their first loss of the 2011 season. However, if 2010 is any guide, expect Luck to rebound with another great winning performance against the Cal Bears on Saturday.

3. Third time's a charm

Luck and Stanford are due, having delivered three consecutive seasons of spectacular offensive football.

Cardinal RB Toby Gerhart was the Heisman runner-up in 2009, finishing second to Mark Ingram by a mere 28 points, 1,304 to 1,276. 

In 2010, Cam Newton won the Heisman, with Luck finishing second. 

The third time should be the charm for Stanford. 

4. Strength of schedule

While some have been uncomplimentary of Stanford’s 2011 schedule, Luck & Co. have compiled a 9-1 record and averaged over 46 points per game against four guaranteed bowl teams (Oregon, Notre Dame, UW, Cal), two more possible bowl teams (UCLA, Wazzu) and USC, which would be bowl-bound but for its Reggie Bush-induced probation.

That’s as strong a schedule as any of the leading Heisman candidates have faced. 

And, of the other leading QB candidates, Kellen Moore and Case Keenum both play in mid-major conferences. Brandon Weeden of Oklahoma State has at his disposal an elite WR, Justin Blackmon. In contrast, Luck’s favorite WR target is a former walk-on, Griff Whalen, who at best resembles Wes Welker, not Calvin Johnson. 

5. Intangibles

Andrew Luck has the coveted “it” factor. He is the most recognizable player in college football, and for good reason.

He entered the 2011 season after dissecting VaTech in the Orange Bowl and has lived up to the endless hype with stats worthy of Aaron Rodgers in an offense without any elite WRs or electrifying RBs.

He’s seen his name become part of the CFB vernacular this fall, in the various “Suck for Luck” initiatives by fans of downtrodden NFL teams.

There's the obligatory human interest angle—Luck has a special relationship with his father, Oliver Luck, former NFL QB and the AD at West Virginia.

Finally, Luck is viewed as the consensus top pick in the 2012 NFL draft. You know, where Roger Goodell steps up to the microphone and says, “With the first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Indianapolis Colts select.”

In other words, Luck remains regarded as the best player in the land. All of which is hard for the voters to ignore. If he plays well against Cal and Notre Dame, he should win the Heisman.