NFL Preview: Week 16

A little different procedure for Week 16: I am only going to preview the 12 games with playoff implications. So there will be no write-up for Bengals-Browns, 49ers-Rams, Texans-Raiders, or Saints-Lions (even though the Lions will become the first team in the 85+ years of the NFL and 30 years of the 16-game schedule to start a season 0-15 with a loss).

If you are a fan of one of those teams, sorry, but judging by most of their seasons, you probably quit caring around Halloween anyways haha.

We are in for a rare treat this weekend: two potential conference championship game previews in contests that will decide home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. You know everyone else in the AFC and NFC will be cheering for Carolina and Tennessee, so they don't have to travel up north to Pittsburgh or the Meadowlands in January (although Nashville and Charlotte aren't much warmer).

The AFC's "regular season championship", featuring the Steelers at the Titans, kicks off at 1 PM on Sunday, with most of the nation seeing the game on CBS. Panthers at Giants will be shown for everyone to see on Sunday Night Football with John and Al there to call the action.

I'm psyched. Thank goodness I'm not a little kid anymore, because the prospect of these two huge football games on the same day followed by Christmas four days later would probably be too much to handle.

Oh and one other note: There will be no Week 17 preview, due to the Christmas holiday and my lack of motivation. I will be gone the week between Christmas and New Year's, so it remains up in the air if I will do any type of wild-card round preview or not.

AFC GAME OF THE WEEK: Steelers at Titans

The last thing the Titans needed to do was go to Houston, lose, and put the status of home-field advantage on the line in this game. You have to wonder why Jeff Fisher did not send Rob Bironas out there for a potentially game-winning 49-yard field goal with two minutes left instead of going for it on fourth down. As for this important showdown, the game will be decided by the defenses.

Tennessee will be without their top two defensive linemen, Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch, due to injury, and that will hamper their ability to be the latest team to tee off on Roethlisberger and/or contain the Pittsburgh running game.

The Steelers’ win in Baltimore last week came with some controversy thanks to two instant replays that produced unexpected decisions from referee Walt Coleman, but look for them to come out and win this game much more decisively, effectively telling the rest of the AFC that they will be the team to beat in January.

NFC GAME OF THE WEEK: Panthers at Giants (Sunday night)

Carolina is arguably the hottest team in the NFC currently, with a two-headed monster at running back, Steve Smith having another strong year, and the defense punishing the opposition to boot. The Giants, meanwhile, have hit a wall the last two weeks without Plaxico Burress against the Eagles and Cowboys.

Obviously, his absence is having an effect on the Giants offense, as teams are able to focus more on the running game and pressuring Eli Manning. Dallas was able to up the ante even more with Brandon Jacobs out on Sunday night, and his presence is crucial to the New York offense.

Manning needs to develop a rhythm with at least one of his other receivers if the Giants hope to win this game. Otherwise, Carolina will follow the lead of Dallas and tee off on the Super Bowl MVP and also aim at shutting down the highly touted Giants run game.

I expect a low-scoring defensive battle in this one, but unlike in the AFC, I do not see the winner necessarily emerging as the clear favorite in the NFC playoffs.

OTHER TOP GAMES

Ravens at Cowboys (Saturday night)

Barring the unlikely circumstance that two wild-card teams make the NFC Championship Game, this will be the final NFL game in the illustrious history of Texas Stadium. And what a big one it is. Baltimore has slipped back into a tie for the six seed in the AFC but currently would win tiebreakers over Miami and New England, while Dallas is in a three-way tie for the two NFC wild-card spots.

Tony Romo took a beating in the Cowboys’ big victory against the Giants, and if the Ravens get pressure on him, it could be another long night. Dallas will need to find a way to run the ball with Choice and Barber (Choice actually looked better on Sunday night) to alleviate the pressure.

Defensively, Dallas has really stepped it up the past few weeks, and I am reluctant to admit it, but Wade Phillips deserves a lot of credit. They should have another big night against a rookie quarterback and conservative offense. Don’t look for a lot of scoring Saturday night.

Cardinals at Patriots

Arizona’s struggles on the road and against good teams outside of the NFC West are well documented, but they get one last chance to shut any of their critics up before the postseason begins.

Unfortunately for the Cardinals, New England is desperate; in fact, they do not even control their own playoff destiny. Ken Whisenhunt’s team had one of their worst defensive performances of the year against Minnesota a week ago, as both Adrian Peterson and Tarvaris Jackson put up big numbers.

To win this game, they will have to slow down Matt Cassel and the Patriots’ passing offense, which in recent weeks, was something only the Steelers have been able to do. And judging by the Oakland game, their running game is finally getting on track as well.

I just don’t see any way Arizona takes home the victory against Belichick’s coaching, the Pats’ offense, and the New England winter.

Falcons at Vikings

For anyone that watches How I Met Your Mother, a central theme of Monday’s episode was the 1999 NFC Championship Game between these Falcons and Vikings, which sent Atlanta to their first Super Bowl. I found that kind of ironic.

Anyways, remember my Vikings bashing a week ago?

Well, considering how strong the offense performed, even under Tarvaris Jackson, I am going to back off of those statements. I think you have to consider this team a viable threat in the NFC playoff picture. Of course, they still have to find a way in, and their final two games are against good football squads in Atlanta and the Giants. At least both games are at home.

The key battle in this potential wild-card preview will be Atlanta’s top-ranked run offense against Minnesota’s top-ranked run defense. Pat Williams will be out with a broken shoulder, so that could negatively impact the Vikings’ run stuffing ability.

Eagles at Redskins

Two months ago, who could have fathomed that the Eagles would be the team entering this crucial matchup on the cusp of the playoffs, while the Redskins were all but eliminated?

A reversal of fortunes has certainly been observed in both Philly and DC in recent weeks. The Eagles are going to have to win both of these games if they want to steal one of the wild-card berths, and for a team that is 1-3 against the NFC East in 2008, that could be a tough proposition.

But the team is on a roll, much like New York got on in December last year.

Washington’s defense has been one of their strengths all season, so they should make McNabb, Westbrook, and company earn it. You just have to wonder if the Redskins have lost all motivation to come out and perform at a high level, or even if they trust in Jim Zorn as their head coach.

AND OTHER GAMES WITH PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS:

Colts at Jaguars (Thursday night)

Indy slayed the beast known as the Detroit Lions in a game that was probably closer than they would have liked, but with a win in Jacksonville, they will wrap up a playoff berth that looked improbable three months ago.

While the Jaguars have had their share of problems in 2008, they always seem to play the Colts tough, and will not be an easy victory by any stretch of the imagination. The Colts would be wise to clinch their wild-card spot Thursday night, so they don’t have to rely on help over the weekend, or even worse, a win against the Titans in Week 17.

Chargers at Buccaneers

San Diego’s situation is simple: If they don’t win this game, their 2008 playoff hopes evaporate. If they win, that will leave open the chance of a “division championship” at Qualcomm Stadium next week, depending on the outcome of Denver’s game later in the afternoon.

Beating a quality Tampa Bay squad that is also fighting for their playoff lives and coming off back-to-back defeats to divisional foes on the road will be a tall task. The Chargers need to play like the team we all expected them to be in August instead of the one they’ve been the past three months if they want to pull off the upset.

Dolphins at Chiefs

Miami should not have any trouble with the 2-12 Chiefs in this game on paper, but Kansas City has defeated Denver at Arrowhead this year and took Tampa Bay and San Diego down to the wire. With a major game looming at the Meadowlands next week, this young team can ill afford to look ahead.

The Dolphins’ best friend will be the Chiefs’ absolutely horrendous run defense, which gives up 155 yards a game. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams should have big days for you fantasy owners out there locked in playoff matchups.

Jets at Seahawks

The Jets have traveled to the left coast three times in 2008, and three times they have come home without a victory. Seattle may be 3-11, but Qwest Field is a difficult place to play. Just look at the Pats, who needed a late score to escape with a win two weeks ago.

And after all, this team has not looked that spiffy for several weeks.

While the AFC East is still a three-way tie with two weeks to go, New York is in the enviable position of controlling their own destiny, winning the division with a victory here and at home next week against Miami.

Bills at Broncos

Denver should make it a priority to win this game at any cost to eliminate any chance that the division title is on the line when they travel to San Diego in Week 17. At home, against a Buffalo team that has lost seven of eight, that shouldn’t be too much of an issue, but with these Broncos, you never know what you are going to get on any given Sunday.

The Bills shouldn’t feel too terrible: surprisingly enough, they are the fourth team this decade to start 4-0 and fail to qualify for the postseason.

Packers at Bears (Monday night)

It’s conceivable, assuming a chain reaction of strange events commences (and when is the NFL not strange?), that the Bears could make the playoffs without overtaking the Vikings in the NFC North. But they probably shouldn’t leave that to chance, seeing how they would have to win their last two and get a bunch of help from the likes of Dallas, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Philadelphia.

Green Bay walloped their heated rivals at Lambeau in November, so I look for Chicago to come out looking for some payback.