2011 NFL Predictions: Updated Playoff Predictions, Post-Matt Schaub Injury

John RozumNov 15, 2011

Well if you haven't heard it yet, here it is real quick. According to Ryan Wilson of CBS Sports, an NFL source had told CBS Sports NFL Insider Mike Freeman that Texans' QB Matt Schaub is out for the remainder of the 2011 NFL season:

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"The source adds that "the team is devastated," and there's little chance Schaub would be available should the Texans make it to the Super Bowl."
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That being said, how does this shake up the playoff picture? Because although Houston is not in the NFC, they still have a game left against the Atlanta Falcons which could have some affect on the NFC playoff picture.

With Schaub out however, Houston will still win the AFC South, finish 11-5 and earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC. So to now indulge ourselves inside the rest of the NFL playoff picture, here is what to expect come January as one of the league's best teams is without one of its' best players.

Wild-Card Weekend

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Although the current AFC outlook remains, the NFC has three drastic changes that evolve thanks to teams on a hot-streak (such as the Bears), and teams who suffer from a difficult schedule (such as the Giants).

AFC

(No. 6) Cincinnati Bengals, 9-7 at (No. 3) New England Patriots, 11-5

It may be a home game for the Patriots, but it will be a different feel since it's not a divisional game. That being said, New England gets the playoff win over Cincinnati as the Bengals offense isn't efficient enough to keep pace with Tom Brady and company.

Yes the Bengals have a solid defense, but their inexperience is what ultimately hurts them at the same time. However, the future is bright for Cincinnati whereas the lights are dimming on the Pats'.

Patriots 27, Bengals 17

(No. 5) Baltimore Ravens, 11-5 at (No. 4) Oakland Raiders, 9-7

Thanks to arguably the best RB tandem in pro football the Oakland Raiders win the AFC West and earn a home game versus the Ravens.

Despite having a Top 5 defense, the Raiders offense proves to hit its' stride with Carson Palmer under center, and Oakland controls the game throughout. Baltimore may have a solid offense, but Oakland exploits them much like the Titans, Jaguars and Seahawks were able to.

In turn, Baltimore's road woes act as their Achilles Heel because although they swept Pittsburgh, winning elsewhere is needed.

Raiders 21, Ravens 14

NFC

(No. 6) Atlanta Falcons, 10-6 at (No. 3) New Orleans Saints, 12-4

After the smoke finally clears the NFC South still has yet to technically be decided. Unfortunately it all comes to an end for the Falcons here, as the Saints just don't lose at home. Now, Atlanta has gotten better in playing on the road but the Mercedes Benz Superdome is a new world during the postseason.

And just like how New Orleans won over the Dirty Birds in Week 10, QB Drew Brees plays near flawless football and doesn't get sacked, while the Saints defense steps it up during crunch time (much like the 2010 NFC championship game).

Saints 28, Falcons 23

(No. 5) Chicago Bears, 10-6 at (No. 4) Dallas Cowboys, 11-5

Feels like new territory for the Cowboys since they have a new head coach, and virtually a revamped offense outside of QB Tony Romo in comparison to their 2007 team. That said, this is a familiar territory for the Bears as they were in the NFC title game just a season ago.

Experience may not mean too much to some, but Chicago gets the road playoff win as they control the tempo with RB Matt Forte. As for their defense, the Monsters of the Midway have significantly improved and defensive lineman such as Julius Peppers keep Tony Romo under duress all game long.

But fear not Cowboys' fans, Big D has a bright future and will be NFC title contenders in 2012.

Bears 24, Cowboys 20

Divisional Round

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Alas we come to the divisional round of the NFL playoffs where three new faces emerge in Oakland, Houston, and San Francisco.

With that in mind, let's see how it turns out.

AFC

(No. 4) Oakland Raiders, 10-7 at (No. 1) Pittsburgh Steelers, 12-4

The Raiders come into Pittsburgh confident, and it's a game that Carson Palmer can retire from if Oakland wins. The Steelers still have a stout defense, and the offense plays just good enough to help win games.

Throughout the game, Oakland establishes a solid rushing attack as does Pittsburgh against the Raiders vulnerable rush defense. In addition, the Steelers have the ability to be explosive on offense, and Oakland's also susceptible to the pass.

In the end, the Steelers defense stands tall and continues to let their offense gradually pull away.

Steelers 34, Raiders 20

(No. 3) New England Patriots, 12-5 at (No. 2) Houston Texans, 11-5

A game against the Patriots in the playoffs would arguably be the biggest football game to be played in the City of Houston since the early 1990s when the Oilers were around. Fast-forward to the 2012 NFL playoffs though, and we see a shootout in favor of the New England Patriots.

With all their injuries, it's simply just too much for the Texans to overcome. New England may have a weak pass defense, but Matt Leinart isn't going to burn them like Matt Schaub would, even with Andre Johnson in the lineup.

And although the Texans do have a great defense, other than Pittsburgh during the regular season, they had no wins against another playoff team.

Patriots 41, Texans 31

NFC

(No. 5) Chicago Bears, 11-6 at (No. 1) Green Bay Packers, 15-1

A rematch of the 2011 NFC title game, but this time around in much favor of the Packers. The difference here lies between which defense will step up. Green Bay has the better offense, Chicago has the more consistent defense, and the special teams are virtually even.

But, Chicago could have the '85 Bears as their defense, and they still wouldn't stop this Packers offense. Aaron Rodgers is splitting defenses like Earnest Rutherford splitting the atom, so no one slows down Green Bay, especially in Lambeau.

Packers 34, Bears 16

(No. 3) New Orleans Saints, 13-4 at (No. 2) San Francisco 49ers, 14-2

Here is a game for those that grew up in the 1990s. An old NFC West rivalry that saw a lot of wins go toward the Bay Area. And this game is no different.

The Saints allow over 120 rush yards per game right now and pounding the rock with RB Frank Gore is what the 'Niners do the best. In addition, that keeps Drew Brees and the Saints offense off the field.

However, even when Brees takes the field, he hasn't seen a pass rush like what San Fran brings to the table. The 49ers may have a weak pass defense, but their rush defense and pass rush is exceptional.

49ers 26, Saints 21

Conference Championships

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When the 2011 NFL season kicked off, it was reasonable to suspect three of the four teams in the conference championship games. Obviously San Francisco is the outlier, being that the 49ers were 6-10 in 2010.

So who's going to Super Bowl XLVI? Let's figure it out.

AFC

(No. 3) New England Patriots 13-5, at (No. 1) Pittsburgh Steelers 13-4

The Patriots and Steelers may not be in the same division, but to say they're not AFC rivals would be wrong. New England and Pittsburgh have been duking it out since the 2004 season and it seems like the road to the Super Bowl must always go through one of these two teams.

Thing is, during that '04 season the Steelers bested New England in the regular season at home, but the Patriots got the last laugh in winning the AFC title in Pittsburgh. Well needless to say, history repeats itself and nothing but deja vu for Steelers' fans.

New England need not worry about giving up a vehement amount of passing yards because of the weather conditions, but neither will Pittsburgh. Thus, it comes down to who wins in the trenches. New England has the better offensive line and wins the line of scrimmage. Not to mention the Pats' have a much better ground game than their given credit for.

As for Pittsburgh, they've become a little too reliant on throwing the football since they're not use to having a lackluster ground game. New England got rid of Albert Haynesworth for a reason and having a DT in the trenches who wants to play ends up paying off.

Patriots 20, Steelers 17

NFC

(No. 2) San Francisco 49ers 15-2, at (No. 1) Green Bay Packers 16-1

If you're a history buff when it comes to pro football, the rivalry between Green Bay and San Francisco is about as good as it gets. For years and years these two met in the postseason, much like each has had their run in with the Dallas Cowboys.

That being said however, Green Bay wins the NFC title thanks to an offense which shreds a weak 49ers pass defense. And yes, San Fran does have one of the best pass rushes in the game, but no QB is as good as Aaron Rodgers whether it's in the pocket or on the run. His uncanny ability to scramble is what really allows him to prevent from getting sacked.

And when the 49ers have the rock, RB Frank Gore will get some solid yards but not having a multidimensional offense against the Packers, who are even better at rushing the passer than San Fran, hurts. Green Bay may not be as good in terms of stopping the run, but they'll take their chances with Alex Smith beating them as opposed to Gore.

Much like with the Vikings, expect the cheese to stack the box and force Alex Smith to beat Aaron Rodgers. Advantage Green Bay

Packers 31, 49ers 20

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Super Bowl XLVI

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When it comes to Super Bowl's it may not get any better than this. And especially so if you like watching two great QBs such as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers slug it out.

So do the Packers repeat? Or will New England win their fourth Super Bowl under coach Bill Belichick in five tries?

Super Bowl XLVI

14-5 New England Patriots vs 17-1 Green Bay Packers

Offense

Offensively both are passing juggernauts. Green Bay ranks No. 3 and averages just under 310 yards per game while the Patriots are No. 1 with 326 yards per game.

As for a rushing offense, both have the ability to use their Brahma Bulls at will. New England averages just over 105 yards per game but rank No. 19, whereas the Packers average just under 103 yards per game and rank No. 21.

But you can't expect a team who throws the ball so well to really focus on heavily running the ball consistently. They both use the ground game wisely, but are more interested in burning the scoreboard than anything else.

Defense

Here is where Green Bay has the advantage. And it's not as slight as it may seem. Both rank as the bottom two in terms of pass defense and are successive at No. 8 (Green Bay) and No. 9 (New England) in regards to rush defense.

The difference here is that the Packers have a much more effective pass rush. Now neither have much of an advantage in terms of who gets more sacks, but the Packers lead the league with 17 interceptions. New England has only picked off 12, and although we expect these numbers to increase, Tom Brady has been more uncharacteristic this season in being prone to throwing INTs.

One other difference is that Green Bay has 51 pass deflections to the Patriots 29. So it's clear that the Packers at least get themselves in better position to make plays than New England, but then again, Green Bay also has Charles Woodson.

Special Teams

This is where the biggest difference lies. New England only averages 20.8 yards per kickoff return to Green Bay's 27.2 and the Packers also have the slight edge in punt return average.

But the major factor here comes from rookie return specialist Randall Cobb for the cheese. The Pats' best return man is Julian Edelman who has a combined 374 return yards, no TDs and a 15 yard average.

Randall Cobb however, has a combined 788 return yards, two TDs and a 21 yard average. The Packers are more explosive, and Cobb acts like the Desmond Howard from the 1996 Green Bay team.

Prediction

Packers have the slightly better offense with a defense that can at least stop opposing offense at times. Now include the special teams and New England is ousted in all three phases of the game.

Packers 38, Patriots 21